689 replies to this topic

[CantonJester]

This will very likely wind up being a team-friendly deal. Tough to turn down generational wealth like that, but Wander likely left a lot of $ on the table. 

[makoman]

This will very likely wind up being a team-friendly deal. Tough to turn down generational wealth like that, but Wander likely left a lot of $ on the table. 

He could have just taken 12 one year deals!

 

You're right of course. But it takes away all of his risk. 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Yeah, the guy's set for life at age 20, and will be a free agent at 32.  Hard to disagree with signing that deal.

[Mackus]

This will very likely wind up being a team-friendly deal. Tough to turn down generational wealth like that, but Wander likely left a lot of $ on the table. 

 

I think guaranteed dollars are worth a whole lot more than future potential dollars.  Especially more than 5 years down the road.

 

Best case for Franco would being due about $50M throughout the 6 years of control and then $40M a year as a FA?  $45M?  That's if he's very near being the best player in the league.  So he'd be underpaid by about 1/3.  Worst case for Franco financially would be if he struggles or gets injured early on and would be sitting on single digit millions a of career earnings in which case he's getting overpaid more than an order of magnitude.

 

Of course there are several contract options in between, didn't need to sign up for 6 FA years.  But I think this is a huge commitment from the Rays that I can't really see criticizing from an estate-planning perspective.

[Mike in STL]

It’s 11/$182M. Club option for $25M in year 12. Escalators starting in 2028 that can take it up to a total of $223M for finishing top-5 in MVP voting.

So $16.5M for 11 years. He could very well be a $40M/year guy when FA would have come. Sounds like a team friendly deal.

[Mackus]

So $16.5M for 11 years. He could very well be a $40M/year guy when FA would have come. Sounds like a team friendly deal.

 

The first 6 years aren't FA years though, so you can't simply divide the dollars by the years and get a fair AAV.  He has no opportunity to earn $40M a year in those seasons.  He gets basically nothing for 3 years, then about 1/3 of FA rates, 1/2 of FA rates, and 2/3 of FA rates over the 3 arb years.   So 1.5 years of FA value is all he'll make over those 6 years.  So he's really getting paid something like $28M a year ($182M/6.5) prorated for the realities of the MLB service time structure.  That's ignoring the option and escalators, which make it a little more complicated.

 

So he's taking a contract that guarantees him the equivalent of $28M a year right now as opposed to going yearly and taking on all the risk but having the opportunity to end up getting $35M or $40M or more for the FA years.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Interesting a deal with such a young player gets done right before the likely lockout and new CBA. Wonder if it says anything about what will or wont happpen on the service time issue

[Mike in STL]

The first 6 years aren't FA years though, so you can't simply divide the dollars by the years and get a fair AAV. He has no opportunity to earn $40M a year in those seasons. He gets basically nothing for 3 years, then about 1/3 of FA rates, 1/2 of FA rates, and 2/3 of FA rates over the 3 arb years. So 1.5 years of FA value is all he'll make over those 6 years. So he's really getting paid something like $28M a year ($182M/6.5) prorated for the realities of the MLB service time structure. That's ignoring the option and escalators, which make it a little more complicated.

So he's taking a contract that guarantees him the equivalent of $28M a year right now as opposed to going yearly and taking on all the risk but having the opportunity to end up getting $35M or $40M or more for the FA years.

I get that. What I mean is in 6 years, if he’s a top 5 player in the league, the going rate for that on the market could be $40M/year. The Rays won’t have to pony up that by paying him more upfront.

Thanks for doing the math though. I was lazy.

[Mackus]

What I mean is in 6 years, if he’s a top 5 player in the league, the going rate for that on the market could be $40M/year. The Rays won’t have to pony up that by paying him more upfront.

 

Absolutely.  But if he's just a top-50 player, the going rate for that on the market could be $20M a year, but Franco will still be getting much more than that.  Or if he gets hurt and isn't even a top-500 player and the going rate for that on the market is $3M a year, Franco will be getting 10X that.

 

Every time a deal like this gets done, its a player prioritizing security over absolutely maximizing potential earnings.  It ends up team-friendly if the player is as good as hoped.  It ends up player-friendly if they fall short of that.  The Rays themselves have had several of these deals and some end up working terrifically for them (Evan Longoria) and others end up going poorly (Rocco Baldelli, though his deal was option-heavy so it didn't cost them a ton).

[dude]

Those big market Rays stepping up and stealing one of the Yankees' FA starters, Corey Kluber. 1/8M with incentives to 13M

 

Love this deal for the Rays and their staff.  

[BaltBird 24]

Not that he would have ever considered Baltimore, but I'd have gladly thrown more his way for a year or two than whatever Elias eventually gives Harvey for his return.

[dude]

Not that he would have ever considered Baltimore, but I'd have gladly thrown more his way for a year or two than whatever Elias eventually gives Harvey for his return.

 

Would have been an option for me too in the lineup I put the Mullins thread.  I'd have gone 2/25 or something like that with a team option.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: 2021 Roster Review: Tampa Bay Rays

[BSLChrisStoner]

@Sportsnet

BREAKING: Major League Baseball has reportedly put an end to plans made by Tampa Bay Rays ownership that would have seen the ball club split its time in Tampa and Montreal.

[Pedro Cerrano]

@Sportsnet

BREAKING: Major League Baseball has reportedly put an end to plans made by Tampa Bay Rays ownership that would have seen the ball club split its time in Tampa and Montreal.

 

This would have been fun -- baseball belongs in Montreal.

[Steve55]

They need to explore Nashville .

[weird-O]

Nashville isn't big enough to support the Orioles and the Rays

[BSLChrisStoner]

• Manfred: MLB has urgency to find Rays ballpark

[weird-O]

It's interesting that Tampa draws more fans than Miami, since the Marlins have that snazzy new ballpark. But I suppose the stadium itself isn't enough to put asses in the seats, when the team is so terrible for so long.

 

It seems like they have a dedicated fan base, but no one is going to sit in that dreadful dome. I went to a game at the Trop. It was clean, and had wonderful murals of the Florida landscape. But it's just a dreary place to watch a game.

[ivanbalt]

It's interesting that Tampa draws more fans than Miami, since the Marlins have that snazzy new ballpark. But I suppose the stadium itself isn't enough to put asses in the seats, when the team is so terrible for so long.

 

It seems like they have a dedicated fan base, but no one is going to sit in that dreadful dome. I went to a game at the Trop. It was clean, and had wonderful murals of the Florida landscape. But it's just a dreary place to watch a game.

Pro sports seem determined to shoehorn teams into the Florida market because of their population but it's obvious they're not all getting supported.

 

MLB - Marlins

NHL - TB does well, but the Panthers (miami) not so much.

NFL - TB does well (might change some with no Brady), Miami does ok I'm assuming and Jax is a failure.