1909 replies to this topic

[You Play to Win the Game]

Get the feeling Westburg is next.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Get the feeling Westburg is next.

Either he or Cowser are fine. Cowser just fits better from an OF perspective but maybe they just plan to give Santander most of the starts in RF

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Os get through a 9 game stretch numerous people were fretting 5-4.

[Mackus]

Os get through a 9 game stretch numerous people were fretting 5-4.

 

Now we'll really be exposed as frauds against LAA, Toronto, NYY, and Texas!

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Now we'll really be exposed as frauds against LAA, Toronto, NYY, and Texas!

I don't think the O's are frauds.......but their offense better start doing soemthing.

[Mackus]

I don't think the O's are frauds.......but their offense better start doing soemthing.

 

8th in MLB in runs/game.  More is always better, but the offense has been quite good.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

8th in MLB in runs/game.  More is always better, but the offense has been quite good.

True. But I wonder how sustainable that is? They seem to score a whole bunch or hardly any. So the average is solid but how does that end up in the W-L column. Now surely teams win lots when they score lots and don't when they don't. I have not looked into the scoring distribution of other teams but look at the O's just for May.

 

12 Games:

9+ - 3 times and as expected all were wins

6-8 - 1 for a win

4-5 - 2 and 1 win and 1 loss which is about expected

3 - None

0-2 - 6 for 2-4 record. Again about what you'd expect.

 

If you assume that 4-5 is the average runs scored then in those 12 games the O's have scored more than average 4 times. Average 2 times. Less than average 6 times. So 50% of their games they have scored actually well less than average runs/game. My point is that the offense has some great games that make it look better on paper than I think it really is. 

[Mackus]

I'll take a higher average runs with more variance game-to-game over a more consistent but less prolific overall offense.  Its a long enough season that the sequencing ups and downs work themselves out.  I prefer the higher baseline if we get to choose.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I'll take a higher average runs with more variance game-to-game over a more consistent but less prolific overall offense.  Its a long enough season that the sequencing ups and downs work themselves out.  I prefer the higher baseline if we get to choose.

I don't think that is the question. Of course you want a higher average runs. The question is which team wins more. The team that scores say 6 runs every game or the high variance team that averages 6 runs a game?

 

The O's have scored 53 runs in May over 12 games for an average of 4.4 runs/game. In that span they went 7-5. Suppose they scored 4.4 runs in each of those games. Their record would have been 8-4. Sure its a SOS.

[Mackus]

Less variance is beneficial if an equivalent overall run scoring environment.  Variance isn't a repeatable skill on a team level, though, so you can't really hunt it.  You just either get it or you don't.  Overall run scoring (or prevention) you can seek out by improving your overall roster.

 

https://blogs.fangra...elp-a-team-win/

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Vavra kinda showing why he got the first shot over Stowers to start the year. There has been no pop in the at at all and thats the elephant in the room with him. He has found hits of late and the walk rate is 11% while the K rate is 17%. Hitting wise the comp to Frazier is quite accurate. Just a shame he wasnt and still isnt trusted to play 2b.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Vavra kinda showing why he got the first shot over Stowers to start the year. There has been no pop in the at at all and thats the elephant in the room with him. He has found hits of late and the walk rate is 11% while the K rate is 17%. Hitting wise the comp to Frazier is quite accurate. Just a shame he wasnt and still isnt trusted to play 2b.

I like him offensively...but while he can stand multiple places, there really is no where you want him with a glove.

[dude]

Fernando Abad was released by the Rockies.  

 

I don't believe there's any truth to the un-named source that spotted an Uber dropping him off outside of Roch's neighborhood.

[Mackus]

12-7 with 3 games remaining in the 22-game stretch against >500 teams.

 

After the Texas series, the next 29 games taking us to a July 4th series against the Yankees are against teams with a combined .481 record.  (Aside from a Milwaukee series that shouldn't count for a reason I haven't yet thought of...)Only a 2-game set with TB is against a team that is currently more than 2-game over .500.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I despise the F'ing Rays right now

[TwentyThirtyFive]

12-7 with 3 games remaining in the 22-game stretch against >500 teams.

After the Texas series, the next 29 games taking us to a July 4th series against the Yankees are against teams with a combined .481 record. Only a 2-game set with TB is against a team that is currently more than 2-game over .500.

Pretty sure we play the Brewers in this stretch and they are 4 games over .500

[TwentyThirtyFive]

So much is about when you catch a team. For example SF is 8-2 in their last 10. We play them next week.

[Mackus]

Pretty sure we play the Brewers in this stretchand they are 4 games over .500

 

Dammit.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Hey man I know youre checking my work too. Its fun when I get to point out a rare Mack mistake

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Book is closed on May

16-12 record

Everyone would have happily taken that on May 1. Now, Im as high as you can get on this team but I expect June is gonna have to be a grind. Schedule on paper isnt particularly tough but that doesnt mean anything. I'll take a .500 month. Im not gonna get greedy right now