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Adley Rutschman


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#661 CantonJester

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Posted 15 June 2023 - 03:14 PM

Some stats regarding Adley throwing...

 

So far this year MLB as a whole is 1472/1855 in SB, which is 79.4% success rate and 0.90 attempts per game per team if I did the math correctly.

Last year teams stole much less often and a little less successfully.  2486/3297, which is 75.4% but only about 0.67 attempts per game per team.

 

Rutschman this year has allowed 31/40 stolen bases, which is 77.5% success rate and about 0.84 attempts per game (I assumed his 4 games caught off the bench to count as an extra half GS).

Last year he allowed 25/36 stolen bases, which is 69.4% success rate and about 0.42 attempts per game (I assumed his 9 games caught off the bench to count as an extra full GS).

 

So if we made up a Caught Stealing Plus and a Attempted SB Plus stat where league average is the denominator, i.e below 100 is better than average...last year Rutschman was 92 CS+ (~8% better than average) and 63 ASB+ (~37% better than average).  This year Rutschman is 98 CS+ (~2% better than average) and 93 ASB+ (~7% better than average).

 

I'd need to look more closely at which pitchers are giving up more SB (risking SSS). If you can only throw over to the bag twice without risk of balk, then time-to-the-plate (as well as pitch selection) plays a huge role in a catcher even having a chance at throwing out the even above average base stealers. 



#662 makoman

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Posted 15 June 2023 - 04:01 PM

I'm not going to look at everybody, but Felix allowed 4 steals with 1 caught last year with Adley, 7 steals none caught this year. I feel like these have generally been more on Felix but I can't say I've seen all of them.

 

So non-Felix it's 24/33 this year, 72.7%, 21/31 last year, 67.7%. 5% difference, and the league is 4% better at stealing this year with the changes so that seems good enough.



#663 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 15 June 2023 - 05:01 PM

Some stats regarding Adley throwing...

So far this year MLB as a whole is 1472/1855 in SB, which is 79.4% success rate and 0.90 attempts per game per team if I did the math correctly.
Last year teams stole much less often and a little less successfully. 2486/3297, which is 75.4% but only about 0.67 attempts per game per team.

Rutschman this year has allowed 31/40 stolen bases, which is 77.5% success rate and about 0.84 attempts per game (I assumed his 4 games caught off the bench to count as an extra half GS).
Last year he allowed 25/36 stolen bases, which is 69.4% success rate and about 0.42 attempts per game (I assumed his 9 games caught off the bench to count as an extra full GS).

So if we made up a Caught Stealing Plus and a Attempted SB Plus stat where league average is the denominator, i.e below 100 is better than average...last year Rutschman was 92 CS+ (~8% better than average) and 63 ASB+ (~37% better than average). This year Rutschman is 98 CS+ (~2% better than average) and 93 ASB+ (~7% better than average).

Youre welcome for the motivation. It still feels like teams are testing Adley more often recently and having more success. I could also argue that the SB success rate of 78% despite being abve league avg is enough to say teams dont respect him. But it would be a general statement about the state of baseball and catchers.


I looked at his savant page yesterday. The pop time and pure arm strength were both top 10ish in baseball. The facts point to me being wrong but its annoying AF when teams just take off at will successfully. That can often be on the pitcher as well.
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#664 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 15 June 2023 - 06:25 PM

The reality of the new era we find ourselves in.

#665 Mackus

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Posted 15 June 2023 - 06:46 PM

Youre welcome for the motivation. It still feels like teams are testing Adley more often recently and having more success. I could also argue that the SB success rate of 78% despite being abve league avg is enough to say teams dont respect him. But it would be a general statement about the state of baseball and catchers.


I looked at his savant page yesterday. The pop time and pure arm strength were both top 10ish in baseball. The facts point to me being wrong but its annoying AF when teams just take off at will successfully. That can often be on the pitcher as well.

If you had said "teams don't fear the arm" that wouldn't have rankled me nearly as much as "don't respect the arm". I don't think teams fear Rutschman the way many would have studs like Molina in the past. But I don't think they disrespect him the way teams would guys like Javy Lopez. At controlling the rn game, Adley is somewhere between fine and good. At all the other catching defense things I think he's between good and great.

#666 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 29 June 2023 - 03:12 PM

When Adley was interviewed during the game the other day, he said that his arm injury affected his throwing last year.  I hadn't noticed, but he wears a compression sleeve on his right arm - hopefully that's just preventative and not anything lingering.



#667 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 29 June 2023 - 03:17 PM


When Adley was interviewed during the game the other day, he said that his arm injury affected his throwing last year. I hadn't noticed, but he wears a compression sleeve on his right arm - hopefully that's just preventative and not anything lingering.

I missed the throws after the 4th inning but the one in the 1st was quite bad. It immediately made me wonder if hes dealing with an arm issue.

#668 Mike B

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 11:32 AM

Adley is participating in the HR derby at AS game.  I am not thrilled with that idea.


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#669 BaltBird 24

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 12:29 PM

Seems like more often than not, dudes who participate in the HR derby burn out for the 2nd half. Not good for a guy who already appears to be burning out from the heavy workload.

#670 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 12:38 PM

All myths

#671 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 12:39 PM

In general players have lesser 2nd halfs than 1st halfs

#672 Mike in STL

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 12:58 PM

I love it. Lets go!


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#673 BobPhelan

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 03:00 PM

Juan Soto used it as a spring board for a great second half. I’m excited about it.

#674 Mike B

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 03:56 PM

Seems like more often than not, dudes who participate in the HR derby burn out for the 2nd half. Not good for a guy who already appears to be burning out from the heavy workload.

I think Adley has been used properly.  He has struggled at times but that is baseball.  That said, he puts a lot of effort into his power swings and that is what bothers me about him in the derby.


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#675 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 04:05 PM

Why would any O's fan want him to participate?

 

1. He's not going to be very competitive.

2. History has shown participants game suffers a bit after the break.

3. If anything he needs more rest not some stupid contest.



#676 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 06:13 PM

Why would any O's fan want him to participate?

1. He's not going to be very competitive.
2. History has shown participants game suffers a bit after the break.
3. If anything he needs more rest not some stupid contest.


Come on man. You serious with this?
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There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

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#677 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 06:29 PM

Come on man. You serious with this?

Yes

 

Let me put it differently. What value to the O's does him being in the derby provide?



#678 Mike in STL

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 06:38 PM

Yes

Let me put it differently. What value to the O's does him being in the derby provide?

Who cares about the value to the O’s. My fan happiness rises seeing our guys recognized on a national stage. I don’t think there is much stock to the notion that the HR Derby ruins your swing. Some guys might say it did. Some guys it doesn’t. Pretty sure Jason Giambi wore a gold thong under his uni for good luck. Ball players are…weird.

Maybe seeing some balls fly out of the park will give him a boost going forward.
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#679 Mike in STL

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 06:43 PM

Pete Alonso OPSed .121 points higher in 2021, and .030 points higher in 2022 post All-Star break. He’s taken probably more swings in the derby the last two years than anyone.
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#680 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 03 July 2023 - 08:26 PM

Yes

Let me put it differently. What value to the O's does him being in the derby provide?


It’s a chance to see your young star on national tv. It’s part of what makes being a fan fun.

Man you guys will find anything to complain about lol
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There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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