799 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

It’s a chance to see your young star on national tv. It’s part of what makes being a fan fun.

Man you guys will find anything to complain about lol

I'll see him in the ASG. Don't need ot care to see him at some beer ball called Home Run Derby.....lol But to each his own.

[Mike in STL]

If you didn’t enjoy seeing Mancini in the HRD, and make it to the finals last year, I don’t have anything else for ya.

[Mike B]

I rarely watch the HRD but may tune in to see Adley take his hacks, but I still would rather him pass.

[BSLRoseKatz]

I think we absolutely have the kind of front office that'd ban him from doing it if they thought there was any sort of legit proof the HRD makes a negative impact so if they trust him to go then I might as well too 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

If you didn’t enjoy seeing Mancini in the HRD, and make it to the finals last year, I don’t have anything else for ya.

I did but thats an apples and oranges comparison to me.

[Mike B]

Adley did well last night.  If he was not going to win, it really was the perfect outcome.  He had one good round, where he represented himself and the Orioles well but did not get exhausted going deep into the Derby.

27 is a good number.

[BSLChrisStoner]

.795 OPS overall...

 

.908 OPS vs. LHP, 115 ab's

.753 OPS vs. RHP, 318 ab's

 

.771 OPS as a Catcher, 314 ab's

.877 OPS as a DH, 116 ab's

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Pretty big jump in his OPS as a DH compared to catching. Not that his catching OPS is bad but 100 points (sss) is quite a bit.

[Mackus]

So I guess he can hit lefties, huh?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

2022 through 113 games played: 470 PA,.254/.362/.445  / 35 2B/ 1 3B/ 13 HR   130 OPS+

 

 

2023 through 113 games played: 503PA  .270/.366/.430  / 19 2B/ 1 3B/ 16 HR   122 OPS+

 

 

 

So pretty consistent offensively.  The hope would've been that he maintained or improved on the XBH and slugging. But could just be a yearly thing. I do think that generally speaking this is who he is going to be in his prime. I dont think its unrealistic to think he could take another step but IM not expecting some huge step. Catcher takes it out of you offensively. It just does. Being a 120-130 OPS+ guy as a primary C is a huge advantage

[dude]

I thought I'd revisit a discussion from the Basallo thread over here.

 

Mackus suggested he didn't think there's an extension opportunity at this point.  I tend to think (I guess Bob does too), there's still a fair amount of space to get it done.  Eventually that window does end, but he's still under Orioles control for the next 4 seasons through age 29. Always use contracts to generate outcomes.

 

I've proposed different structures in the past, I think this one is similar to the last one, with a few caveats based on the conditions today.

 

Base deal: 7/130.  That's the next 4 years of team control + 3 FA years. 

Broken down 5M SB, 1/8/15/20/25/25/25, 6M b/o on team option.

 

Team option: 7/181. The team option must be exercised after year 4 of the Base Deal.  In other words, if Adley is killing it over the next 4 years, the Team can essentially execute a 10/256 option (includes the final 3 years of the based Deal + 7 new years at 25M per and the bo becomes the signing bonus)

 

IF the team decides not to execute the Team option, years 6 and 7 of the Base Deal become Player options.

 

What this does.

1) Guarantees AR 130M

2) Allows the Orioles to execute a lifetime contract guaranteeing over 300M (total earnings)

3) If the Orioles don't make that 255 additional commitment, AR can choose to be a FA after his age 30 season

 

Base: 7/130

Orioles OPT IN: 14/305

AR OPT OUT: 5/74

 

The shorter term guarantee (7 years, age 32) buys the Orioles the Lifetime contract option without the full, current 300+M risk. If the Orioles don't make that commitment after the 2027 season, Adley only gave up one 25M year of FA for the 130M guarantee.  Full no-trade. (there's a couple more little things I'd do in there, but that's enough, here)

 

I think AR has more in the tank offensively. Under something that looks like 1SP he's a career Oriole and HoF and the Top5 All-Time becomes a Top6.

[Mackus]

Love pursuing creative ideas and we're seeing elaborate options become a thing so will probably take something like that to get him to sign. Still, my initial reaction is he turns that deal down. $130M guaranteed isn't enough for him to forego free agency.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The O's would want his first 3 years of FA.

Adley would rather hit FA at 30 vs. 33. 

 

A 'lifetime' contract seems like the most likely option to me if the O's get a deal done.
 

[dude]

Love pursuing creative ideas and we're seeing elaborate options become a thing so will probably take something like that to get him to sign. Still, my initial reaction is he turns that deal down. $130M guaranteed isn't enough for him to forego free agency.

 

305M takes him out of FA.

 

130M is the no risk guarantee (regardless of anything)

 

He becomes a FA after age 30 (and 5/74), if he doesn't get 300M.

 

That decision would come at the same point in his career, for both sides, under his current team controlled service.

[Mackus]

305M takes him out of FA.

130M is the no risk guarantee (regardless of anything)

He becomes a FA after age 30 (and 5/74), if he doesn't get 300M.

That decision would come at the same point in his career, for both sides, under his current team controlled service.

$130M means he hits FA as a 33 y/o, which is a lot different than hitting it at 30. I dont think the $80M or so he's getting in those 3 years (depending on what arb be year estimates you use) is enough for him to sign and not get the opportunity to hit FA at 30 and maybe get something insane. I think he declines.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

At minimum I think he would want to be locked up through age 34. Probably age 35 or 36.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Until the FO is willing to spend real money in FA I just don't see the point in extending Adley or anybody else. If they won't make a significant move now, after a 101 win season with an obvious need staring them in the face what's the point. 

 

I have no issue extending him, although I'd rather put my chips on Henderson. But if the model, at least until the O's are sold, is to go inexpensive inhouse with some 1 year deals sprinkled in then not sure why spend big money on anybody.

 

To me its simple. Over the next 3 or 4 years which O's team is likely better?

 

Team A - Extend Adley or Gunnar and the rest of the approach stays the same.

 

Team B - Spend $25 or 30M/year for an additional impact player while you still have those other guys under control?

 

Both teams cost the same. The difference is you have Adley for longer vs being stronger over the next several years. I take Team B and its not that close to me.

[dude]

$130M means he hits FA as a 33 y/o, which is a lot different than hitting it at 30. I dont think the $80M or so he's getting in those 3 years (depending on what arb be year estimates you use) is enough for him to sign and not get the opportunity to hit FA at 30 and maybe get something insane. I think he declines.

 

I'm not trying to badger the details here (because the specifics don't really matter), but under [somethinglikethat] he's getting either [THIS]305M or [THIS]5/74 and a FA at 31. 

 

The 130M/age33 is a worst case backstop for his career (double MW career) due to performance or injury.  If he goes 7/130, the Orioles would be unhappy (and he'd be excited) because something happened that didn't make the Orioles exercise the Option and he wasn't comfortable getting out of the deal....

[Mackus]

Yes, I understand. I think $130M isn't enough reward to forego risk and the opportunity for more through conventional arbitration and FA. He says no, IMO.

I think it's a clever and good offer. Just think it's gonna take a really large amount (substantially larger than this) to get him to do anything other than year-to-year at this point.

[dude]

Until the FO is willing to spend real money in FA I just don't see the point in extending Adley or anybody else. If they won't make a significant move now, after a 101 win season with an obvious need staring them in the face what's the point. 

 

I guess we'll see, but I think the conditions have changed, in that they aren't going to push team transition at this time.  The optimized window just closed so they'll transition to a slightly different model. 

 

John Angelos wants to be a hero.  This is about ego, not money.  Money is just a tool to maintain his relevance. 

 

I have no issue extending him, although I'd rather put my chips on Henderson. But if the model, at least until the O's are sold, is to go inexpensive inhouse with some 1 year deals sprinkled in then not sure why spend big money on anybody.

 

Boras is likely plotting wildly deferred scenarios where Henderson and/or Holliday get the faux 705M.

 

You aren't extending Henderson, Holliday or GRod.  Use them until they leave, either in FA or you make a trade.

 

Find the guys that want to be here.  That's who you win with (how you win) now and later.