I thought I'd revisit a discussion from the Basallo thread over here.
Mackus suggested he didn't think there's an extension opportunity at this point. I tend to think (I guess Bob does too), there's still a fair amount of space to get it done. Eventually that window does end, but he's still under Orioles control for the next 4 seasons through age 29. Always use contracts to generate outcomes.
I've proposed different structures in the past, I think this one is similar to the last one, with a few caveats based on the conditions today.
Base deal: 7/130. That's the next 4 years of team control + 3 FA years.
Broken down 5M SB, 1/8/15/20/25/25/25, 6M b/o on team option.
Team option: 7/181. The team option must be exercised after year 4 of the Base Deal. In other words, if Adley is killing it over the next 4 years, the Team can essentially execute a 10/256 option (includes the final 3 years of the based Deal + 7 new years at 25M per and the bo becomes the signing bonus)
IF the team decides not to execute the Team option, years 6 and 7 of the Base Deal become Player options.
What this does.
1) Guarantees AR 130M
2) Allows the Orioles to execute a lifetime contract guaranteeing over 300M (total earnings)
3) If the Orioles don't make that 255 additional commitment, AR can choose to be a FA after his age 30 season
Base: 7/130
Orioles OPT IN: 14/305
AR OPT OUT: 5/74
The shorter term guarantee (7 years, age 32) buys the Orioles the Lifetime contract option without the full, current 300+M risk. If the Orioles don't make that commitment after the 2027 season, Adley only gave up one 25M year of FA for the 130M guarantee. Full no-trade. (there's a couple more little things I'd do in there, but that's enough, here)
I think AR has more in the tank offensively. Under something that looks like 1SP he's a career Oriole and HoF and the Top5 All-Time becomes a Top6.