HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 08:51 PM
I don't want to spark that argument in this thread. I'm pretty sure you know what I mean, and I'll leave it at that.
I'm not confident in him having a sub 2 ERA the rest of the way. Are you?
That's pretty hard to have a sub 2 ERA. I'm confident it will be under 3. Tommy Hunter has a 2.85 ERA and has been a beast for us. I'll take another Hunter for the stretch run.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 08:51 PM
Yeah, this. He's been a beast for my fantasy team stat wise but when I watch the games he never looks impressive.
Neither has Jim Johnson. Still gets the job done much more often than not.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 08:55 PM
That's pretty hard to have a sub 2 ERA. I'm confident it will be under 3. Tommy Hunter has a 2.85 ERA and has been a beast for us. I'll take another Hunter for the stretch run.
Moderator
Posted 23 July 2013 - 08:58 PM
I'm not confident in under 3 either. Basically a coin flip for me on that.
And from where he is now, doesn't that mean he'd be putting up something like a 4.50 ERA the rest of the season to get to that?
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:01 PM
And from where he is now, doesn't that mean he'd be putting up something like a 4.50 ERA the rest of the season to get to that?
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:03 PM
I'm not confident in under 3 either. Basically a coin flip for me on that.
So, we're talking about a guy who has pitched in 53 games one season, 59 another, and in every other season (since 2003) has pitched in 60+ games. He had a 3.03 in '03, 3.71 in '09, and a 4.38 ERA last year. So counting the 3.03 as basically under 3, in 9 out of 11 seasons, including this year at 1.09, he's had an ERA under 3.
Yet it's a coin flip for you that he's going to continue to pitch over the next 3 months not at his current clip, but at a full 2 runs OVER his current ERA.
Okay, man. Good for you. Not much logic points to that line of thinking. It seems pretty random to me. Certainly no evidence that suggests what you're saying is even remotely logical.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:04 PM
Owner
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:05 PM
I'm less worried about his era than just what his performance is...ie, he could have a terrible outing that skews his numbers but the rest of the time excellent.
Right... it's going to be 20-30 innings... won't take much to skew the era.
Just be another useful late inning arm in that Johnson, O'Day, Hunter, Matusz mix.... and provide Buck with another useable option.
Moderator
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:08 PM
I meant his ERA from here on out, not season ending.
Oh ok, gotcha.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:10 PM
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:12 PM
His ERA was over 4 last year and in the high 3's in 2009. He hasn't pitched many innings this year and his ERA does not equate to his stuff level or peripherals. He's also stepping up in terms of competition level. And it won't take much for his ERA to be over 3.
There's logic there.
So you're going to talk about 2009 but ignore 2010 and 2011? Very interesting.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:17 PM
Feels like quite a bit of overrating Delmonico in here, which is understandable given the scarcity of even decent prospects (which he is nothing more than) in our system. This is just how it works. Gotta give up a guy like him, to get a good guy back, and K-Rod fits what this team needs in a big way. I don't love giving up Delmonico, but I'm not going to be upset unless we're talking blue chippers.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:17 PM
So you're going to talk about 2009 but ignore 2010 and 2011? Very interesting.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:18 PM
I'm not ignoring those years at all.
I'm not going to put much stock in his earlier years though since he had better stuff then.
That's fair...but then you shouldn't mention 2009.
Very fair for you to mention 2012. But then also a bit more fair to talk about 2013...THIS YEAR.
Clearly, his stuff isn't what it was. But he's pitching well now and that's all that matters. Just like Joe Saunders was pitching well over the last 2 months of last year and that's all that mattered.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:19 PM
I mean this with all due respect...
You guys realize you spend 365 days a year on an Orioles message board, hoping each and every year to be in position to win the ultimate prize...a WS trophy.
The O's trade a guy who has maybe a 20% chance to be a productive major leaguer for one of the best relievers of our generation, when late inning bullpen help is a huge need, and there are people complaining? Huh?
Very strange to me.
The O's give up someone insignificant to this season and more likely to be insignificant to than significant going forward in future years, in order to make a run in a wide open race this season.
It's a no brainer move.
I don't have an issue with what youre saying whatsoever. Plenty of people spend 365 days talking about the Ravens or their college football team, and there's a lot less games being played. ESPN airs lots of daily NFL programming in addition to the NFL Network. Same thing applies to NHL, NBA, college basketball, soccer, and the like. Every single team in every single city has active blogs, message boards, and in some cases, channels that do nothing but air team specific programming. There's really no off-season with social media and 24-hour cable sports networks now. You aren't waiting til the next day or 11 PM news to find out trades, FA moves, etc.
I'm not sure if this a no-brainer move, but it's one I'm in favor of.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:21 PM
Feels like quite a bit of overrating Delmonico in here, which is understandable given the scarcity of even decent prospects (which he is nothing more than) in our system. This is just how it works. Gotta give up a guy like him, to get a good guy back, and K-Rod fits what this team needs in a big way. I don't love giving up Delmonico, but I'm not going to be upset unless we're talking blue chippers.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:24 PM
Obviously. I didn't mean to imply that. I meant that he has tremendous big game experience and that the moment wouldn't be too big for him, as it was for Jim Johnson in the playoffs last season.
Combine that with the fact that he's currently pitching lights out, and it's a tremendous move.
I think sometimes people forget that prospects aren't ONLY for developing and keeping 1 out of 15 for 7 years because the team sucks. Good teams make trades like this all the time. The Rangers just gave up quite a big haul for 3 months of Garza, and people are now picking them to go to the WS. This is what winning teams do...you trade future assets to win in the present. For the O's, this move significantly helps their present and the effect on their future is yet to be determined. If they hoist the trophy, it won't even matter regardless of how good Delmonico becomes.
Unless he becomes a HOFer, I can pretty much agree with that, maybe even if he becomes one because of how much I'd love to a WS championship in my lifetime.
A good analogy if the Koji trade had made the Rangers WS winners, would anyone in Texas care right now? Having left him off the WS roster entirely in addition to losing that series, makes it not worthwhile even if completely hindsight. That said, I don't think he reaches this level in Texas even if he stays.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:24 PM
That's fair...but then you shouldn't mention 2009.
Very fair for you to mention 2012. But then also a bit more fair to talk about 2013...THIS YEAR.
Clearly, his stuff isn't what it was. But he's pitching well now and that's all that matters. Just like Joe Saunders was pitching well over the last 2 months of last year and that's all that mattered.
HOF
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:30 PM
I don't think it was that big of a need. The pen has between quite good of late. I'm pretty confident in the O's 5 main relievers as a group, them add Gausman or Johnson and that's a very strong group along with TJ as the long man.
KRod is fine though. It's exciting that they're being aggressive. I just like the Feldman move more along with other potential moves.
That's fair. I'm just not a huge fan of people being really upset about giving up Delmonico. I get it, but it's not a big deal. Your other options here are logical, but I 'm sure they felt more comfortable going with more of the sure thing. JMO. Also, yes, the Feldman move was better than this one, for sure.
Moderator
Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:32 PM
We'll see what he gives us. Relievers can be volatile within the year as well and I don't think he is still the type that is nearly immune from bad stretches like truly elite relievers are.
Right. And as I mentioned in another thread the other day....you can't assume that a RP is going to perform the same in one park just because he did in another park, even in the same year. Look at Strop here and in CHC (SSS), look at Sabathia that run he was in MIL as far as starters go.
You HOPE they perform at that level, but with RP especially you have to be a little more wary that a different team and environment will impact them. Koji going from here to TEX when we got Davis is another good example.
Just not a fan of trading for RP...ever. I mean with a little foresight they'd have had him for nothing in the offseason.
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