Posted 02 August 2022 - 10:58 AM
If they are trimming fat they can trade guys that cost more than Lopez. This is an Elias move I just am trying to understand the return.
My emotions took me on a ride. I really like Elias. But this move upsets me and/or makes me nervous right now that ownership can't be trusted. We'll see how it plays out.
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 10:58 AM
Deivy Cruz seems like a decent comp for Rojas. Cruz started this year at 18 at FCL, but he's been promoted to Delmarva (low-A). They've got similar H, HR, and K numbers. Way fewer BB for Rojas than Cruz (6.2 per 9 vs 1.2 per 9). Maybe Rojas' reat BB-rate moves him ahead of cruz, but Cruz is a level up at the same age so that's an advantage.
Bob ranked Cruz #37 in our system. So put Rojas in that vicinity I think.
Drew Rom would be the best case comp for Povich. Rom is 22 and been at AA all year with 11 K, 2.8 BB, 1.2 HR and 9.6 H per 9, Povich is 22 at A+ with 12 K, 3.0 BB, 1.0 HR, and 8.1 H/9. Slightly better peripherals but he's at a lower level at the same age.
Scouting is more important than stats, especially in FCL, so maybe the scouts give an advantage to the Minnesota guys over our comps, but also maybe they don't. Hard for us to judge that right now.
Bob ranked Rom #14 in our system. So put Povich slightly below that.
#15 and #35 isn't nearly good enough for 2+ years of Lopez while the team is above .500 in August. Its a Dillon Tate package, IMO.
Povich is #22 in the Twins 19th ranked farm system. He's got to be like #28 in ours.
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 10:58 AM
You think ownership demanded we send cash and our closer to Minnesota?
"No Chance, No Chance in Hell."
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:02 AM
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:03 AM
Povich is #22 in the Twins 19th ranked farm system. He's got to be like #28 in ours.
I don't know how often those lists get updated. They do graduate guys off of them, but re-evaluating I'm not sure. Povich barely pitched at all after being drafted last year, so if #22 is preseason, then its only based on his draft ranking. He's had good peripherals this season so reason to think he'd climb a bit. On the other hand, the ERA is high and he's 22 at A+. Would need to hear some scouting reports to have a better idea of how he compares to some of our guys.
Even trying to be as bullish and favorable as possible on the two main prospects, I don't think you get anywhere near enough to justify trading Lopez.
MVP
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:03 AM
I remember when we traded Machado and how furious I was with the return (still am). In that vein, most here are upset at this deal, because the return is mostly an unknown, and there's a chance none of the four pitchers we got amount to anything.
However, in the end, we may all look back at this and feel we robbed the Twins. and Elias and his scouts are beasts. I know I (and probably most of you) would have preferred guys that were closer to the majors and higher ranked. I'll wait to pass judgement, but currently am not happy.
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:08 AM
I remember when we traded Machado and how furious I was with the return (still am). In that vein, most here are upset at this deal, because the return is mostly an unknown, and there's a chance none of the four pitchers we got amount to anything.
However, in the end, we may all look back at this and feel we robbed the Twins. and Elias and his scouts are beasts. I know I (and probably most of you) would have preferred guys that were closer to the majors and higher ranked. I'll wait to pass judgement, but can see why some folks are angry.
I'm with you here a bit and also Mackus on the fact that Povich may have taken a nice step forward this year that's yet to be reflected in rankings.
If Povich is the center piece, can be dropped in AA, does well and is well thought of beyond pre-season rankings.. Maybe you've got something.
Need some profiles I think on Povich and the Cuban pitcher.
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:09 AM
I remember when we traded Machado and how furious I was with the return (still am). In that vein, most here are upset at this deal, because the return is mostly an unknown, and there's a chance none of the four pitchers we got amount to anything.
However, in the end, we may all look back at this and feel we robbed the Twins. and Elias and his scouts are beasts. I know I (and probably most of you) would have preferred guys that were closer to the majors and higher ranked. I'll wait to pass judgement, but can see why some folks are angry.
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:10 AM
I'm with you here a bit and also Mackus on the fact that Povich may have taken a nice step forward this year that's yet to be reflected in rankings.
If Povich is the center piece, can be dropped in AA, does well and is well thought of beyond pre-season rankings.. Maybe you've got something.
Need some profiles I think on Povich and the Cuban pitcher.
Still feels like more value in the present could have been realized. And maybe Elias is high on his ego about duplicating this year's pitching development success.
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:11 AM
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:16 AM
Im assuming the Cuban guy steps right into our BP. Despite being really bad at the ML level for Min
That's the process. Put guys on the MLB roster who don't belong.
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:16 AM
Fangraphs has Povich at 19 right above Balmier. Cano at 46. Nunez and Rojas not listed. But they also still have Felix Bautista at 35, so...
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:18 AM
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:20 AM
Yeah, I think this is a trade where you either trust Elias/Sig, or you do not. Clearly they targeted these 4 pitchers for a reason. What they've done assembling a decent MLB pitching staff this year out of largely scraps deserves some benefit of the doubt. I do not know if they can repeat that. To me, losing Lopez isn't that big of a deal with our bullpen depth. Vespi, who is also having an amazing year, can step in and I doubt the bullpen misses much of a beat at all.
So, did they find any nuggets with those 4 guys. We'll see.
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:23 AM
Yeah, I think this is a trade where you either trust Elias/Sig, or you do not. Clearly they targeted these 4 pitchers for a reason. What they've done assembling a decent MLB pitching staff this year out of largely scraps deserves some benefit of the doubt. I do not know if they can repeat that. To me, losing Lopez isn't that big of a deal with our bullpen depth. Vespi, who is also having an amazing year, can step in and I doubt the bullpen misses much of a beat at all.
So, did they find any nuggets with those 4 guys. We'll see.
This is my thing a bit too. The pitching staff has been an incredible feat by them this year. But don't get too high on your own supply.
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:33 AM
No matter the agenda the return feels light. Thats the part that baffles me. But I do trust this FA when it comes to scouting and evaluations. THey must think Lopez is about to turn into a pumpkin
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:36 AM
No matter the agenda the return feels light. Thats the part that baffles me. But I do trust this FA when it comes to scouting and evaluations. THey must think Lopez is about to turn into a pumpkin
Right. If you really like these guys that's fine, but it seems like you should be able to get more with them for Lopez, unless the league just doesn't believe in Lopez. Or get this return for Tate like somebody said.
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:37 AM
No matter the agenda the return feels light. Thats the part that baffles me. But I do trust this FA when it comes to scouting and evaluations. THey must think Lopez is about to turn into a pumpkin
If the genius feels Lopez is going to turn into a pumpkin, his manager does not share that view.
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:48 AM
If the genius feels Lopez is going to turn into a pumpkin, his manager does not share that view publicly.
fixed that for you. Not that Hyde doesnt believe but he wouldnt tell us otherwise
HOF
Posted 02 August 2022 - 11:52 AM
fixed that for you. Not that Hyde doesnt believe but he wouldnt tell us otherwise
No you fixed it for yourself.
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