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Lopez to the Twins


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#101 Mackus

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:01 PM

Yeah, I think this is a trade where you either trust Elias/Sig, or you do not.  Clearly they targeted these 4 pitchers for a reason.  What they've done assembling a decent MLB pitching staff this year out of largely scraps deserves some benefit of the doubt.  I do not know if they can repeat that.  To me, losing Lopez isn't that big of a deal with our bullpen depth.  Vespi, who is also having an amazing year, can step in and I doubt the bullpen misses much of a beat at all.

 

So, did they find any nuggets with those 4 guys.  We'll see.

 

Why take these guys that they think could turn into something when you could justify asking for better guys that are more likely to turn into something without needing some magical turnaround from this development team?

 

I think its great that the team thinks they've cracked some code and can find value in undervalued guys.  But if you pay more than full freight to get those guys, that ceases to be excess value.  You're just overpaying for potential and then needing to fulfill it to make it a fair deal.

 

If Povich becomes a mid-rotation starter then this will go down as a fine trade.  But you shouldn't base the judgement of trades on a near ideal outcome for the package.  


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#102 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:05 PM

Why take these guys that they think could turn into something when you could justify asking for better guys that are more likely to turn into something without needing some magical turnaround from this development team?

 

I think its great that the team thinks they've cracked some code and can find value in undervalued guys.  But if you pay more than full freight to get those guys, that ceases to be excess value.  You're just overpaying for potential and then needing to fulfill it to make it a fair deal.

 

If Povich becomes a mid-rotation starter then this will go down as a fine trade.  But you shouldn't base the judgement of trades on a near ideal outcome for the package.  

This. In poker thats called results oriented. Certainly you want "results" but the reasonable way to value a trade is to look at the middle projections for the return not some best case. In this situation it looks close to a fleecing.



#103 Slidemaster

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:10 PM

It's hard for me to reasonably imagine a worse, less impactful return for a marquee reliever with 2 years of team control.

I do not understand at all. It is very likely that none of these prospects ever sniff the majors.

#104 NewMarketSean

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:11 PM

Other teams seem to have no problem trading players worse than Lopez and Mancini and getting players that contribute and not 3-4 years down the road.

 

So far we have Tate and Kremer to show for the trades we've made over last 4 years. That is not good.


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#105 mweb08

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:12 PM

I could research this and do it myself, but if anyone would be so kind to post some comparable trades that we can judge this one against, it would be appreciated.



#106 BaltBird 24

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:14 PM

Other teams seem to have no problem trading players worse than Lopez and Mancini and getting players that contribute and not 3-4 years down the road.

So far we have Tate and Kremer to show for the trades we've made over last 4 years. That is not good.


Bradish and Vavra, too.

#107 hallas

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:14 PM

This trade is weird as shit to be honest.  If none of these guys pan out it's going to be an awful return, because it really feels like we could have gotten more highly-regarded prospects for Lopez.  If they're targeting their guys I get it to an extent, but you better not be wrong if that's the case.


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#108 NewMarketSean

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:14 PM

Bradish and Vavra, too.


Whoop-dee doo.


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#109 Mackus

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:15 PM

I could research this and do it myself, but if anyone would be so kind to post some comparable trades that we can judge this one against, it would be appreciated.

 

Pending FA Aroldis Chapman for top-25 prospect Gleyber Torres is one that comes to mind.



#110 FL O's Fan

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:17 PM

Pending FA Aroldis Chapman for top-25 prospect Gleyber Torres is one that comes to mind.

 

Chapman had more of a track record and pedigree. More expensive though and less team control. Similarly Andrew Miller. 



#111 mweb08

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:21 PM

Why take these guys that they think could turn into something when you could justify asking for better guys that are more likely to turn into something without needing some magical turnaround from this development team?

 

I think its great that the team thinks they've cracked some code and can find value in undervalued guys.  But if you pay more than full freight to get those guys, that ceases to be excess value.  You're just overpaying for potential and then needing to fulfill it to make it a fair deal.

 

If Povich becomes a mid-rotation starter then this will go down as a fine trade.  But you shouldn't base the judgement of trades on a near ideal outcome for the package.  

 

Yep.

 

Like if one thinks they're a brilliant investor, that doesn't mean that they should sell their 2nd house at a significant discount because they think they can recoup the difference with their investments. Sell the house for market value and then have more to invest with.



#112 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:22 PM

I wonder how much not trading Scott and Fry at last years deadline and getting reduced or no return influenced Elias here. Obviously Lopez is having a much better year than either of them did



#113 mweb08

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:26 PM

When I was looking at the Astros prospects yesterday, I thought that their #1 prospect, Hunter Brown (#81 overall on mlb.com) would have been in the ballpark of what Lopez could bring back. 

 

We obviously now know what they did get for Lopez and other than Bob, everyone thinks it's underwhelming, but was I being unrealistic with that thought? 



#114 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:29 PM

Povich and a least one of the younger guys have to have some helium. Maybe the Cuban has a great arm



#115 Mackus

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:30 PM

This trade is weird as shit to be honest.  If none of these guys pan out it's going to be an awful return, because it really feels like we could have gotten more highly-regarded prospects for Lopez.  If they're targeting their guys I get it to an extent, but you better not be wrong if that's the case.

 

Yeah, Elias is stealing third with two outs on this one.



#116 hallas

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:40 PM

When I was looking at the Astros prospects yesterday, I thought that their #1 prospect, Hunter Brown (#81 overall on mlb.com) would have been in the ballpark of what Lopez could bring back. 

 

We obviously now know what they did get for Lopez and other than Bob, everyone thinks it's underwhelming, but was I being unrealistic with that thought? 

 

I think there is some amount of history for trading a player like Lopez for a ~50 FV prospect (around 50-200 range in the rankings typically.) So you're definitely not off base for thinking this return is questionable.  I think Lopez's lack of multi year track record hurts him a bit, but it shouldn't tank his value to the point where we're getting a 40 FV reliever prospect and 2 lottery tickets back.  We've been hurt in the past by trade seasons that were less brisk than usual.  However, that's not the case here.  This trade season has been active and we should have had some people offering something decent.


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#117 NewMarketSean

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:49 PM

I have no problem trading a starter turned closer who has been mediocre to bad in his career and who will be 30 next season. But you have to get more for him when he is having the season he's having.


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I never had friends later on like the ones I had when I was twelve. Jesus, does anyone?

#118 Mackus

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:53 PM

Cano pitched at AAA as a 27 and 28 y/o.  He has good peripherals except high walks.  10 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 7.3 H/9.

 

That's comparable numbers to Marcos DiPlan (10.3, 5.0, 0.6, 8.5) except Diplan was 24/25 at AAA.  Logan Gilespie is somewhat similar, more hits but fewer walks, though again 3 years younger.  Travis Lakins has fewer Ks but similar otherwise.

 

Maybe he provides something for a short time, but having him in the trade doesn't make me feel any better about it.  Its the equivalent of Breyvic Tavera in the Machado trade.



#119 Mackus

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:53 PM

I have no problem trading a starter turned closer who has been mediocre to bad in his career and who will be 30 next season. But you have to get more for him when he is having the season he's having.

 

Agree 100%.  The problem isn't the decision to trade him.  I don't love punting on the season to this degree but its understandable given this is the first time Lopez has been good.  But he still has in fact been this good and has ample control left.  Can't take back one top-20 and one top-40 guy and call it a fair trade.



#120 PD24

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Posted 02 August 2022 - 12:56 PM

I have no problem trading a starter turned closer who has been mediocre to bad in his career and who will be 30 next season. But you have to get more for him when he is having the season he's having.


So you think Elias settled for a package that wasnt the best?
@PeterDiLutis




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