397 replies to this topic

[Nigel Tufnel]

Keith Law Q&A with Connelly:

 

Last year, to the chagrin of many Orioles fans, you ranked the club’s farm system No. 18 of 30. This year you have it No. 10. Is the reasoning for the uptick the strides Orioles prospects have made or a drop in other systems?

 

I have to say that Orioles fans chagrined by my rankings probably aren’t taking an objective view of the system. I’ve pointed out a few times that they have less prospect capital from international scouting than any other organization in baseball. For them to rank 10th with that drawback is remarkable! They should be thrilled. But between that and the system’s lack of clear starting pitching prospects, expecting a higher ranking isn’t reasonable.

 

The system improved for several reasons — they had a strong draft class in 2021, and they saw a couple of big steps forward from guys already in the system, notably Joey Ortiz and Coby Mayo. I think that by next winter we’ll be able to talk about the impact of the international free agents (IFAs) the Orioles signed making a real impact on the system, which will be the first time in close to a decade that will be the case.

 

Orioles Q&A with Keith Law about his prospect rankings and observations – The Athletic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Sun: 5 takeaways from Baseball America’s top 30 Orioles prospects list

[BobPhelan]

O’s had 8 players on the Prospects Live top 100:

1 - Rutschman
4 - Rodriguez
26 - Hall
47 - Cowser
53 - Henderson
54 - Mayo
77 - Westburg
92 - Kjerstad

[Mike B]

O’s had 8 players on the Prospects Live top 100:

1 - Rutschman
4 - Rodriguez
26 - Hall
47 - Cowser
53 - Henderson
54 - Mayo
77 - Westburg
92 - Kjerstad

Not bad at all.  8 in any top 100 is good, when there are 30 teams.

[Mackus]

O’s had 8 players on the Prospects Live top 100:

1 - Rutschman
4 - Rodriguez
26 - Hall
47 - Cowser
53 - Henderson
54 - Mayo
77 - Westburg
92 - Kjerstad

 

Even more favorably across the board than Fangraphs.  Interesting.

 

I'm not familiar with Prospects Live.

[BobPhelan]

Even more favorably across the board than Fangraphs. Interesting.

I'm not familiar with Prospects Live.

Mostly fantasy (dynasty) baseball but this list was not fantasy related.

Good people over there, one guy recently got hired by Baseball America and another one by the Orioles interestingly enough.

[dude]

mlb.com came out with their new top100 and bumped Adley from the top spot for Bobby Witt Jr.  I think that's silly, but whatever.

 

Orioles still have 5 guys and Hall fell to 90.

 

When you look through every teams top prospects in this article, I want someone that doesn't think the Orioles have the top MiiL system (#Law) to argue which team he'd trade just the prospects in the top100 for.  The Orioles do well after the top 100 (borderline guys and overall depth).

[dude]

Adley #1 catcher

 

Grod #1 RHed pitcher

 

Hall #7 LHed pitcher

 

Norby checked in at #10 on top 2B.

 

(mlb.com)

[BobPhelan]

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/

[Mike B]

Good List, hurry young men hurry.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Bob what happened with Kjerstad?

[BobPhelan]

Bob what happened with Kjerstad?

Pulled a hammy.

[BobPhelan]

Orioles #1 farm system in baseball. Will have Jonathan Mayo on the podcast to talk about it Monday.

https://www.mlb.com/...-2022-preseason

[dude]

mlb.com updated their top 100 today (beyond just graduations as they take guys off).

 

Adley #1 and GRod #3 although I think there's a pretty good argument he's #2.

 

Henderson was in the bigger movers group and shows up inside the top50 at #48.

 

Cowser hangs out around #60 and Hall at #83 although I think mlb.com has been light on Hall since they started bumping him back.

 

Interesting that neither Mayo or Westburg pushed into the top 100.  That makes it harder for them to crack top 100 post-draft with the influx of a number (maybe 10-15) of new top100 guys. 

[BobPhelan]

ESPN released their mid-season top 50 today:

2. Gunnar Henderson
7. Grayson Rodriguez
30. Jackson Holliday
43. Colton Cowser
45. Coby Mayo

Jordan Westburg listed as our next best prospect. Cade Povich mentioned in the 76-125 area which certainly changes what people should think about the Jorge Lopez trade if that is where the general consensus is headed with him.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I don't really get Grayson slipping on peoples lists.   It's not an injury that should scare you going forward, or dissuade you about his future prospects.  So if you now have him lower, you should be saying imo that others have gone past him, not that he's fallen.  And I don't think there are 6 better prospects.  

Not that it matters. 

[makoman]

I don't really get Grayson slipping on peoples lists.   It's not an injury that should scare you going forward, or dissuade you about his future prospects.  So if you now have him lower, you should be saying imo that others have gone past him, not that he's fallen.  And I don't think there are 6 better prospects.  

Not that it matters. 

I agree, doesn't seem like the type of injury to worry about so he should have held steady. I can't really argue with anyone who moved Gunnar ahead after his AAA performance at his age. Don't know enough about anyone else to have a real opinion.

[Mackus]

Cade Povich mentioned in the 76-125 area which certainly changes what people should think about the Jorge Lopez trade if that is where the general consensus is headed with him.

 

Yeah that would certainly be a full step up from where even the most bullish people on Povich have had him.  Nobody else has him in our top-10 or ahead of Stowers, for example.

 

How was this presented?  Are way more than 125 guys mentioned throughout the article for all the teams as being in the 76-125 area?

[Mackus]

I don't really get Grayson slipping on peoples lists.   It's not an injury that should scare you going forward, or dissuade you about his future prospects.  So if you now have him lower, you should be saying imo that others have gone past him, not that he's fallen.  And I don't think there are 6 better prospects.  

Not that it matters. 

 

I don't think going from #4 or whatever it was to #7 is really slipping.  That's the same.

 

But generally speaking, I do think that not playing can and should cause you to fall back in these types of rankings.  Stalling is a bad sign.  Stalling for injury that should be fully recoverable is not nearly as concerning as stalling due to lack of production.  But any injury for a pitcher adds to future concern which lowers the overall expectation (same high upside, but slightly more risk).  The most reliable predictor of future injury for a pitcher is a previous injury.  Rodriguez very well may be perfectly fine moving forward, but you've gotta be at least a little bit less confident in his reliability now than before he had this injury.  That he's still rated so highly is indicative both of his extreme talent and the benign nature of his injury.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Stalling is a bad sign. Agreed.

Staling for injury that should be fully recoverable is not nearly as concerning as stalling due to lack of production. Agreed

 

But any injury for a pitcher adds to future concern..    Don't agree there. 

 

 

Agree that 4-7 isn't really slipping, agree it's 'the same.'