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#161 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 16 August 2022 - 01:01 PM

Yeah that would certainly be a full step up from where even the most bullish people on Povich have had him. Nobody else has him in our top-10 or ahead of Stowers, for example.

How was this presented? Are way more than 125 guys mentioned throughout the article for all the teams as being in the 76-125 area?


https://twitter.com/...I9nzdGkvUglSlUA
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#162 makoman

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Posted 16 August 2022 - 01:07 PM

The trade makes a lot more sense if this is the case. I hoped that this was the case, and that Elias isn't crazy, but it's good to see some confirmation from someone who knows what he's talking about.

 

I think (with nothing to back it up) that it takes a good bit of time for the public rankings to catch up with the team evaluations, especially with the non-top-100 types that don't have tons of eyes on them every night.


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#163 Mackus

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Posted 16 August 2022 - 02:31 PM

https://twitter.com/...I9nzdGkvUglSlUA

 

Thanks.

 

We'll see where he is when the list comes out.  Will have the advantage of however strongly he can finish at Bowie.  This blurb is quite a bit different than him actually being in rated in that range even by ESPN/McDaniel, though is certainly more encouraging than not being mentioned at all.

 

I wonder if any part of that is tail wags dog.  The first several of the guys mentioned were acquired in recent trades.


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#164 makoman

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Posted 16 August 2022 - 03:17 PM

Thanks.

 

We'll see where he is when the list comes out.  Will have the advantage of however strongly he can finish at Bowie.  This blurb is quite a bit different than him actually being in rated in that range even by ESPN/McDaniel, though is certainly more encouraging than not being mentioned at all.

 

I wonder if any part of that is tail wags dog.  The first several of the guys mentioned were acquired in recent trades.

I don't know what ESPN's list looks like, but they say in the 50 FV tier. On Fangraphs that goes from 29-105 and includes Cowser (34) and Mayo (63), our 5th and 6th for them. I know how you feel about tiers, it may be that there isn't a lot of difference between 40 and 120.

 

I think there is definitely some tail wagging the dog, because there's 900 top 30 prospects to keep tabs on. Can Kiley McDaniel scout all of them every week, no way, you probably just check the stats of the Twins' 23rd best prospect and move on. But when a guy is in a deadline deal, and especially if he seems to be a headliner, it probably puts everyone on notice that hey, we need to look at this guy a little more closely and see what they're thinking.


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#165 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 09:14 AM

Baseball America just released their new top 100, the Orioles have 8 players on it.

 

https://www.baseball...-100-prospects/
 

1. Gunnar Henderson

6. Grayson Rodriguez

15. Jackson Holliday

41. Colton Cowser

75. DL Hall

76. Jordan Westburg

93. Connor Norby

95. Joey Ortiz

 

So no Coby Mayo who also has an argument to be on there and has been/will be on others.


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#166 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 09:21 AM

Baseball America just released their new top 100, the Orioles have 8 players on it.

 

https://www.baseball...-100-prospects/
 

1. Gunnar Henderson

6. Grayson Rodriguez

15. Jackson Holliday

41. Colton Cowser

75. DL Hall

76. Jordan Westburg

93. Connor Norby

95. Joey Ortiz

 

So no Coby Mayo who also has an argument to be on there and has been/will be on others.

Good stuff. So exciting. All these guys other than Holliday are on the cusp and will play in the show in '23 unless there is an injury. Thats insane IMO. 7 Top 100 guys from one organization that are on the verge of graduating and playing in the show. Oh yeah, the other was the #1 pick in the draft.

 

 

BTW I agree with Mayo being lower than everyone else on this list. Want to see a good year from him in '23. 


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#167 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 09:23 AM

BTW I agree with Mayo being lower than everyone else on this list. Want to see a good year from him in '23. 

 

I think if they had Baseball Savant pages for minor leaguers you would feel differently but he'll win you over this year. 



#168 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 09:24 AM

Am I crazy, or has Westburg lost a little steam with these sites given his streakiness at times last season?


“We have a shot at a wild card right now. But it is not a probability that we're going to win a wild card.” -2022 Trade Deadline

"It's liftoff from here" - after selling on 2022

"We're on a slight upward arc" - Winter Meetings 2022

"I think it's really hard to sit there and chart a course and say, 'We're likely to win the division.'" - Winter Meetings 2022

Mike Elias


#169 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 09:25 AM

I think if they had Baseball Savant pages for minor leaguers you would feel differently but he'll win you over this year. 

Maybe I could be talked into him over Westburg right now. Not likely but I'd let you try. I love Norby and Ortiz too much to have Mayo ahead of them. They might be my blind spot but IM good with it.


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#170 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 09:28 AM

Am I crazy, or has Westburg lost a little steam with these sites given his streakiness at times last season?

No lost steam IMO. I think he's stayed about the same. He was never going to be a super high ceiling prospect. I would argue that staying on the list and maintaining his status when he has a limited ceiling shows how productive he was this year. He forced his way into remaining in the bottom of the top 100 list. A guy these listmakers could easily drop off and often want to drop off for flashier prospects. He def is streaky and there are questions about his defensive position longterm but he produces and you have to respect that.



#171 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 09:49 AM

Am I crazy, or has Westburg lost a little steam with these sites given his streakiness at times last season?

 

Definitely has been a streaky hitter so far in his career but I believe this is the highest he's ever been on one of these lists.


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#172 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 09:52 AM

BTW, they have Kodai Senga at #16 on the list and Masataka Yoshida (OF the Red Sox signed for big bucks) all the way down at #87 - 55 hit, 45 power, 40 run, 40 field, 40 arm.



#173 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 10:04 AM

BTW, they have Kodai Senga at #16 on the list and Masataka Yoshida (OF the Red Sox signed for big bucks) all the way down at #87 - 55 hit, 45 power, 40 run, 40 field, 40 arm.

I mean could be proven wrong but that Yoshida contract Bos gave is great. For the rest of the AL East


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#174 mweb08

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 10:07 AM

Good stuff. So exciting. All these guys other than Holliday are on the cusp and will play in the show in '23 unless there is an injury. Thats insane IMO. 7 Top 100 guys from one organization that are on the verge of graduating and playing in the show. Oh yeah, the other was the #1 pick in the draft.


BTW I agree with Mayo being lower than everyone else on this list. Want to see a good year from him in '23.


Exciting indeed!

However, it seems like the bottom 3 names on that list will need injury, poor performance, and/or a trade (or two) to open up playing time for them. All certainly possible, but I wouldn't expect all three to get a real look this year.

#175 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 10:11 AM

I didnt even realize how much of a midget Yoshida was. Listed at 5'8 175. ROFL. But sure obligatory mention of Altuve and Betts here.

#176 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 20 January 2023 - 10:30 AM

8 also on the Baseball Prospectus 101 but Coby Mayo in, Joey Ortiz out. 3 in the top 10!

1 - Gunnar Henderson
8 - Grayson Rodriguez
9 - Jackson Holliday
38 - Colton Cowser
69 - Coby Mayo
74 - Jordan Westburg
82 - Connor Norby
95 - DL Hall
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#177 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 26 January 2023 - 07:52 PM

MLB Pipeline:

1 - Gunnar Henderson
7 - Grayson Rodriguez
12 - Jackson Holliday
40 - Colton Cowser
74 - Jordan Westburg
80 - Heston Kjerstad
97 - DL Hall
99 - Joey Ortiz

So that makes 10 different prospects appearing in top 100 lists. FanGraphs and ESPN still to come.
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#178 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 26 January 2023 - 08:05 PM

Well done, O’s. Well done.

“We have a shot at a wild card right now. But it is not a probability that we're going to win a wild card.” -2022 Trade Deadline

"It's liftoff from here" - after selling on 2022

"We're on a slight upward arc" - Winter Meetings 2022

"I think it's really hard to sit there and chart a course and say, 'We're likely to win the division.'" - Winter Meetings 2022

Mike Elias


#179 Mackus

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Posted 26 January 2023 - 08:07 PM

I certainly get why they qualify, but Senga and Yoshida shouldn't be really considered prospects. Also would say Gunnar shouldn't either.

Orioles depth is abundantly clear, but also think that seeing some names not appear on lists that others have as high as in the 70s shows how wide is the tier that takes you from a bit outside the top-50 to probably through the top-150.

Would be amazing if publications started just listing tiers. Obviously gonna be some disagreement at the edges, but I think a tiered profile makes a lot more practical sense than a list.

#180 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 26 January 2023 - 11:26 PM

They should do what they do with the HS football recruit rankings and calculate a composite ranking that gives equal weight to all the major services.


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