397 replies to this topic

[Mike B]

My apologies, for derailing the thread to make it about Law, who I maintain is an ass, when it comes to the Orioles.

My concern about the Orioles farm system is what I think is the lack of top flight pitching prospects.  GRod looks like the real deal and may well be the best prospect in baseball, and there are others like Hall who have a good chance to be solid major leaguers, but it does thin down after that.'

Position wise, we may have a surplus and I guess the plan is to trade some of those for pitching.  I think the fun that will be had in the next 2 years will be watching these guys arrive.

[BobPhelan]

Very, very few teams have more than 1 or 2 pitchers of Rodriguez/Hall’s caliber.

[Mackus]

Very, very few teams have more than 1 or 2 pitchers of Rodriguez/Hall’s caliber.

 

I think Mike talking about the guys after those two.  It's certainly stacking the deck to not count a top-10 and top-50 level prospect.  MLB's current top-100 only has 29 pitchers on it (20 ahead of Hall and none ahead of Rodriguez).  So some team's don't even have a single guy on that list.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The pitching depth is fine. Its pretty typical for most systems to have guys like Baumann, Kremer, Akin, Lowther, etc who breeze through the minors putting up good numbers and then hit a wall when they get to the AAA/AAAA/or ML level. How many break through that wall is what is crucial. These are all 40-50FV arms that either figure it out or dont at the last few levels.

[BobPhelan]

I think Mike talking about the guys after those two. It's certainly stacking the deck to not count a top-10 and top-50 level prospect. MLB's current top-100 only has 29 pitchers on it (20 ahead of Hall and none ahead of Rodriguez). So some team's don't even have a single guy on that list.

I still like our depth at the position with Bradish, Baumann, Rom, Brnovich, Pinto, etc. I think it’s overblown that we’re lacking there (not that it couldn’t be better).

[Mike B]

Very, very few teams have more than 1 or 2 pitchers of Rodriguez/Hall’s caliber.

Good point and very fair.   I think my concern is we do not seem to take enough shots early in the draft.  I have always been a pitching first guy, and I still believe if a team can not pitch at high level, it can not win at a high level.  Maybe we will hit on 2 or 3 starters and add an ace like the Astro's did.  

[BobPhelan]

#1 ranked farm system by ESPN/Kiley McDaniel.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: Top 100

https://blogs.fangra...-100-prospects/

 

Rutschman 1

Rodriguez 3

Hall 27

Cowser 40
Henderson 66
Mayo 69

[Mackus]

Wow.  That's the highest ranking I think I've seen for each of these guys (tied in Rutschman's case).

[BobPhelan]

Been telling y’all…

[Mike B]

FanGraphs: Top 100

https://blogs.fangra...-100-prospects/

 

Rutschman 1

Rodriguez 3

Hall 27

Cowser 40
Henderson 66
Mayo 69

Very impressive

[Mike B]

I hope Kjerstad makes his way on to the next list.

[Mackus]

Been telling y’all…

 

Or the Orioles are using some of the ~$200M they've saved on payroll over the past few seasons to bribe Fangraphs reporters!!!

 

It's a little odd that one publication is higher than everyone else on every major prospect.  Certainly one explanation could be that the evaluator, moreso than many of the others, likes all the same general things in a prospect that Elias likes, so the opinions on the players align.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Or the Orioles are using some of the ~$200M they've saved on payroll over the past few seasons to bribe Fangraphs reporters!!!

 

It's a little odd that one publication is higher than everyone else on every major prospect.  Certainly one explanation could be that the evaluator, moreso than many of the others, likes all the same general things in a prospect that Elias likes, so the opinions on the players align.

It's definitely interesting to see how the different sites evaluate. 

BP is strictly stats imo. 

 

Baseball America is largely scouting, and relationships. 

 

FanGraphs is evaluation, projection... with Kiley and Kevin you have guys who've been in Front Offices...  (the Orioles were one stop for Kiley.)

 

MLB Pipeline... evaluation, scouting, broad relationships... 

Law... I think it's just him. Not that he doesn't listen to others, but I think it's solely his personal opinions. 

 

How I describe them above is broad, just trying to say there are differences. 

[BobPhelan]

Or the Orioles are using some of the ~$200M they've saved on payroll over the past few seasons to bribe Fangraphs reporters!!!

It's a little odd that one publication is higher than everyone else on every major prospect. Certainly one explanation could be that the evaluator, moreso than many of the others, likes all the same general things in a prospect that Elias likes, so the opinions on the players align.

Well Kevin Goldstein is on staff and he worked with Mike and Sig in Houston.

But I do trust Eric Longenhagen more than any other prospect analyst (maybe tied with Jim Callis), dude puts in an insane amount of work.

[BobPhelan]

It's definitely interesting to see how the different sites evaluate.

BP is strictly stats imo.

Baseball America is largely scouting, and relationships.

FanGraphs is evaluation, projection... with Kiley and Kevin you have guys who've been in Front Offices... (the Orioles were one stop for Kiley.)

MLB Pipeline... evaluation, scouting, broad relationships...

Law... I think it's just him. Not that he doesn't listen to others, but I think it's solely his personal opinions.


How I describe them above is broad, just trying to say there are differences.

Kiley is with ESPN since 2020, he has Mayo at 98.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Kiley is with ESPN since 2020, he has Mayo at 98.

Ahh right, I still associate him with FG and forget about Longenhagen.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Hopefully 2080 Baseball gets cranking again.... old friend Nick Faleris does great work.

[Mackus]

Is there any backwards looking evaluation of past rankings anywhere?

 

I've got a decent idea of how draft position correlates to future performance.  I've never seen much on the expected future value of prospects by ranking.  Or how various evaluators did at accurately predicting the future contributions of the guys in their rankings.

 

Obviously would be tons of noise with all of this, but I'm curious how much more production you can expect from a guy ranked in the top-10 overall versus just top-50 or top-100.  And how does that change depending on the prospect's age, level, or experience.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

F Law