397 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Cowser's floor is astronomically lower than Nick Markakis.  His ceiling is probably Nick Markakis.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I would hope his power potential is higher than Markakis. Hopefully baserunning and speed too.

[makoman]

Cowser's floor is astronomically lower than Nick Markakis.  His ceiling is probably Nick Markakis.  Did you mean ceiling?  Because his floor is never gets more than a cup of coffee.  Floor means worst case outcome.  

You're technically right, but I think people often say "floor" but really mean "successful floor." I.e. floor if things go right and he becomes a decent major leaguer, or something like that. People want to think about what kind of player they will likely have on their hands if he actually progresses through the system. And it sounds like Cowser has a very good hit tool, not a ton of power, good enough defense that he could play CF a bit while young but will hold down a COF spot. Maybe comp would be a better term than floor.

 

Even Law said his floor is an everyday guy with high average and doubles power. Law obviously knows that a guy who has 100 PAs in low A ball has a floor of washes out in AAA or something, so much can just go wrong when you move up levels. But it would be boring to talk about any low level minor leaguers then, who all have that floor.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Of course his floor is lower than Markakis but in the same vein since he is so far away its fair to think he has a higher ceiling. Especially if we are talking about the 2nd half of his career.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Keith Law ranks the O's system at #10:

 

 

10. Baltimore Orioles

Last year: No. 18

This is about as good as a system can get with no contributions from the international side and very little from the trade market. The Orioles’ top nine prospects all came through the draft, and they’re all very good, as the team has done well with first-round picks, spread some money around to go over slot later in the draft and already has one of its first big developmental success stories in Joey Ortiz. The lack of major-league talent to trade for prospects hasn’t helped, although the front office did very well in the Mychal Givens and Dylan Bundy deals, and the Orioles finally showed up in Latin America, handing out the first million-dollar bonuses in the team’s history in 2021 to two prospects who debuted in the DSL that summer. What’s in the system now remains heavily skewed towards position players, as that has been this front office’s strong preference in the draft, so once this core of hitters arrives the Orioles will need to go outside to fill out the rotation behind Grayson Rodriguez et al.

 

MLB 2022 farm system rankings: Keith Law grades all 30 teams on prospects, with the Dodgers at No. 1 – The Athletic

[Mike B]

Keith Law ranks the O's system at #10:

 

 

 

MLB 2022 farm system rankings: Keith Law grades all 30 teams on prospects, with the Dodgers at No. 1 – The Athletic

It had to kill Law to put the Orioles in his top 10.

I don't think Law is very good, so not going to concern myself with his opinions.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I do think Law has a bit of something against the Os but its more that he just isn't as good as his peers at scouting and evaluating talent.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: Baltimore Orioles Top 45 Prospects

 

I'll be speaking with Kevin Goldstein tomorrow.

[makoman]

FanGraphs: Baltimore Orioles Top 45 Prospects

 

I'll be speaking with Kevin Goldstein tomorrow.

Good lord, I can't tell whether I like the Adley (debated giving him an 80 FV) or Grayson (three 70 pitches) write up more.

 

Interesting that they ranked Arias at 12 and didn't rank Braylin Tavara (merely someone "to watch"). 

[BobPhelan]

Good lord, I can't tell whether I like the Adley (debated giving him an 80 FV) or Grayson (three 70 pitches) write up more.

Interesting that they ranked Arias at 12 and didn't rank Braylin Tavara (merely someone "to watch").

Yeah seriously…

Good thing about FanGraphs is they adapt to new information, Kyle Stowers jumped 20+ spots from last year, so I don’t think it’s necessarily shade being thrown at guys like Tavera, Basallo, etc.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Law's Orioles Top 20:

 

1. Adley
2. Rodriguez
3. Cowser
4. Henderson
5. Hall
6. Westburg
7. Ortiz
8. Norby
9. Mayo
10. Bradish
11. Kjerstad
12. Baumann
13. Stowers
14. Vavra
15. Rom
16. Prieto
17. Brnovich
18. Adam Hall
19. Gillaspie
20. Haskin

The Orioles have the most top-heavy system in the American League, with six guys on the Top 100 or just-missed list, plus two more who were reasonably close. But the system thins out quickly after that, with a lot of future relievers and extra bats, plus a huge group of prospects who had disappointing 2021 seasons due to injury or poor performance.

 

Orioles’ top 20 prospects for 2022: Keith Law ranks Baltimore’s farm system – The Athletic

[Mike B]

Law's Orioles Top 20:

 

1. Adley
2. Rodriguez
3. Cowser
4. Henderson
5. Hall
6. Westburg
7. Ortiz
8. Norby
9. Mayo
10. Bradish
11. Kjerstad
12. Baumann
13. Stowers
14. Vavra
15. Rom
16. Prieto
17. Brnovich
18. Adam Hall
19. Gillaspie
20. Haskin

 

Orioles’ top 20 prospects for 2022: Keith Law ranks Baltimore’s farm system – The Athletic

Law never misses a chance to downgrade the Orioles.  What an ass.

[Nigel Tufnel]

 

2022 impact

Rutschman should be their Opening Day catcher. Grayson Rodriguez isn’t far off from the rotation, although the way the Orioles manage his workload, we may not see him in Baltimore until June or so. Baumann and Jones have already appeared in the majors and could be up and down this year, as could Vavra. I do think a healthy D.L. Hall will end up in the big leagues since he’s already on the 40-man. It’s more of a longshot given how little he played last year, but if Ortiz is healthy and picks up where he left off at the plate, he’ll be the best option for shortstop within a month.

[Nigel Tufnel]

6. Jordan Westburg, SS/3B (Just-missed list)

Age: 22 | 6-3 | 203 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 30 in 2020

Westburg had a strange year, starting in Low A as a 22-year-old college product — granted, nobody played in 2020, but he was really too advanced for the level, so he destroyed it — and thus not reaching Double A until mid-August, so he didn’t have much time to make adjustments to better pitching. He’s a long-levered kid, listed at 6-3, and when he puts the bat on the ball it’s pretty loud, with the potential for 40 doubles and 20 homers if he hits enough to get to it. He crushes left-handed pitching, but has some trouble with right-handed breaking stuff, often guessing and missing fastballs in what might be curveball or slider counts. He has a real two-strike approach, though, getting wide and eliminating his stride to try to put the ball in play. Baltimore had him split time between shortstop and third base last year, with the former probably a reach but third base a no-doubt floor for him, and his arm will play anywhere.

[Nigel Tufnel]

7. Joey Ortiz, SS

Age: 23 | 5-11 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 108 in 2019

Ortiz started last year on the way up and almost certainly would have hit my Top 100 if he’d stayed healthy and maintained his production all year, thanks to a swing change that produced much harder contact. The summer after the Orioles drafted him in the fourth round, he had good contact skills, but no impact, whereas he started last year hitting the ball much harder without any loss in contact rate. He’s a plus defender at short and shouldn’t be impacted by the injury to his non-throwing shoulder. We only had a 35-game sample of his production with the new swing, and he never had to go around a league twice since the O’s promoted him to Double A in May, but if he does this all year I’d be surprised if he weren’t their shortstop by Labor Day.

[Nigel Tufnel]

8. Connor Norby, 2B

Age: 22 | 5-10 | 187 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 41 in 2021

Norby was the Orioles’ second-round pick after a year where he hit everything he saw for East Carolina, going .414/.484/.659 and missing a perfect 1:1 strike-to-walk ratio by just one walk. (We math people enjoy symmetry. Also prime numbers. I can’t explain why. They’re just so interesting.)  And he went out and did the same in Low A after signing, with a .283/.413/.434 line in 26 games. He can hit, obviously, with a compact swing and approach that focuses on using the whole field, so there’s not a ton of power here, but he should get to 35-plus doubles and double-digit homers. He’s limited to second base by a fringy arm, but if he hits like this, so what? I thought he was a first-rounder in July, and the O’s did great to get him at pick No. 41.

[dude]

I don't have a lot of issues with some of Law's individual assessments, but literally anyone could get most of what he's saying.  There's plenty of sources out there....although, we may want to recommend he listen to OTV because he's clearly missing some things.

 

...it's the collective assessment that is just crazy.  Most teams would trade you their top 30 for Rutschman, GRod, Hall (not Adam, LOL), Henderson and Westburg.  

 

How in the hell are the Dodgers #1?  I don't hate their system, but how in the world do you defend that?  

 

The Orioles won't have a top10 system after AR, GR and DLH graduate, but goodness...they are in there now.

[JeremyStrain]

I don't have a lot of issues with some of Law's individual assessments, but literally anyone could get most of what he's saying.  There's plenty of sources out there....although, we may want to recommend he listen to OTV because he's clearly missing some things.

 

...it's the collective assessment that is just crazy.  Most teams would trade you their top 30 for Rutschman, GRod, Hall (not Adam, LOL), Henderson and Westburg.  

 

How in the hell are the Dodgers #1?  I don't hate their system, but how in the world do you defend that?  

 

The Orioles won't have a top10 system after AR, GR and DLH graduate, but goodness...they are in there now.

Law tends to favor international guys pretty heavy, which you'll notice he dings the O's for while still praising what they've done without it. And LA has a ton of high level international guys, so face value makes sense.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Law is just a poor source compared to his peers. Bottom line.

[BobPhelan]

Obviously disagree with him in regards to depth. Baseball America's Ben Badler told us even after Adley and Grayson graduate we should still easily be in the top 5-10 range considering we have 1-1. 

 

Love his take on Joey Ortiz. 

 

He'll come around once our international signings hit the upper minors.