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#181 makoman

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Posted 27 January 2023 - 11:41 AM

I certainly get why they qualify, but Senga and Yoshida shouldn't be really considered prospects. Also would say Gunnar shouldn't either.

 

Does Corbin Carroll count? He got almost as much time as Gunnar. Does Francisco Alvarez count more because he only got like a week in MLB? Do Brett Baty and Triston Casas count because they're only top 25ish instead of top 10?

 

The rules are the rules and make it easy, I think there's lots of similarly situated guys so it's no big deal. Seems silly to arbitrarily call some people non-prospects, unless you want to use zero MLB time whatsoever I guess. And then I guess for the others, zero time in the top league in a country.



#182 Mackus

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Posted 27 January 2023 - 12:03 PM

Does Corbin Carroll count? He got almost as much time as Gunnar. Does Francisco Alvarez count more because he only got like a week in MLB? Do Brett Baty and Triston Casas count because they're only top 25ish instead of top 10?

The rules are the rules and make it easy, I think there's lots of similarly situated guys so it's no big deal. Seems silly to arbitrarily call some people non-prospects, unless you want to use zero MLB time whatsoever I guess. And then I guess for the others, zero time in the top league in a country.


The recently graduated prospects I get why rookie status is as good of a choice for a firm rule about eligibility for such lists as any. I think that's a bit lenient if what we're really looking for is farm system prospects, but would be hard-pressed to come up with a better rule that has widespread application. The complete opposite scale metric would be ineligible once they see any MLB time. Could be better, could be worse, and very difficult to think of a good benchmark in the gray area in between. More work, but would be interesting to see the same list but with anyone with MLB service excluded and the next X guys below 100 who would qualify moved up.

The veteran international FAs don't really make any sense to be included, though. These guys aren't the farm system, they are MLB players. I think they should exclude players who signed without being beholden to the International FA restrictions, even if they have no service time yet.

#183 makoman

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Posted 27 January 2023 - 01:28 PM

I'm with you on International FAs. This is kind of shorthand for how you are developing talent, and Ohtani has nothing to do with that.



#184 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 January 2023 - 06:07 PM

Kjerstad being top 80 on a list is pretty whack. Lets just call things what they are. I know he had a great AFL but I stick by it.

#185 BobPhelan

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Posted 27 January 2023 - 06:24 PM

Kjerstad being top 80 on a list is pretty whack. Lets just call things what they are. I know he had a great AFL but I stick by it.


Agreed, I have him at 11 for us.

#186 BobPhelan

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Posted 30 January 2023 - 09:21 AM

Keith Law is up next for The Athletic.

2. Gunnar Henderson
15. Grayson Rodriguez
19. Jackson Holliday
73. Jordan Westburg
84. DL Hall
95. Joey Ortiz

No Cowser, Norby, or Mayo.

ESPN/Kiley McDaniel coming this week.

#187 Mackus

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Posted 30 January 2023 - 10:12 AM

No Cowser is interesting.  I expect numerous players in the back-half of the top-100 to be off of many of the lists and on others.  The tier that encapsulates the back-end of the top-100 extends way past the #100 cutoff.  No reason to think the #84 prospect is actually distinguishable from the #108 prospect, for example.  But a guy like Cowser who is more universally considered in the top-50 by most seems like they'd make all the lists.  

 

Maybe the really wide tier just starts a bit sooner this year.  Or maybe its just another personal quirk of Law's, nefarious or not.


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#188 makoman

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Posted 30 January 2023 - 12:48 PM

I can understand being skeptical of Cowser as an overdraft out of Sam Houston State, and 2021 wouldn't change that.

 

I can't understand just disregarding what he did at AA, arguably better than both Adley and Gunnar at that level, at a year younger than the former and a year older than the latter. Seems like he made his mind up in April.


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#189 Mackus

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Posted 30 January 2023 - 01:00 PM

I can understand being skeptical of Cowser as an overdraft out of Sam Houston State, and 2021 wouldn't change that.

 

I can't understand just disregarding what he did at AA, arguably better than both Adley and Gunnar at that level, at a year younger than the former and a year older than the latter. Seems like he made his mind up in April.

 

Doesn't Law basically never change his mind?  Just sticks hard to his original opinions until/unless there is overwhelming evidence otherwise (and maybe even then).


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#190 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 30 January 2023 - 01:02 PM

Im not the biggest Cowser fan but not having him Top 100 is stupid. Im sure Law has some Int gjys that have never played in the states on the list though
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#191 BobPhelan

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Posted 30 January 2023 - 03:22 PM

Doesn't Law basically never change his mind? Just sticks hard to his original opinions until/unless there is overwhelming evidence otherwise (and maybe even then).


Yeah, that’s my read on him at least.

#192 dude

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Posted 31 January 2023 - 08:30 AM

We should be comfortable dismissing Law's opinions. I've seen enough to say they don't add any credibility to the space.


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#193 RichardZ

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Posted 31 January 2023 - 10:58 AM

Colton Cowser is going to the best hitter out of all of our current prospects, excluding Gunnar, and he might be better than Gunnar.   Best swing in the system.  Power to all fields and power that is underrated.  He's a corner outfielder but he'll be a solid RF.    He made adjustments all year last year and advanced 3 levels.   After a horrid start at Norfolk (0-9 with 6K's) he OPS'd .823 in September and struck out 17 times in his last 77 PA.  Smart hitter, with good strike zone awareness, hits to all fields, with plus natural power which he's just starting to tap into.  He's a much bigger dude than I originally thought.


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#194 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 31 January 2023 - 11:08 AM

Here's Law on Cowser:

 

The 10 MLB prospects who just missed Keith Law’s top 100 ranking: Cowser, Martinez and more - The Athletic

 

Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Age: 23 | 6-3 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 5 in 2021

Last year’s ranking: 52

Cowser was an under slot pick at fifth overall in 2021, as the Orioles wanted to replicate their 2020 strategy of spreading some of their bonus pool around to later picks, going well over slot with John Rhodes (third round) and Creed Willems (eighth round). Neither of those two players has worked out so far, but Cowser looks like he’ll be as advertised — a very solid, reliable regular, maybe a 55, but perhaps not a star. Cowser has very good feel to hit, at least against right-handed pitching, as he hit .307/.432/.530 off them, but struggled against lefties with a 33 percent strikeout rate and just a .194/.329/.287 line on the season. He took off when he reached Double A in late June, moving to a slightly better ballpark for left-handed hitters, and didn’t stop hitting until he reached Triple A in September, where he was overmatched by offspeed stuff of all varieties.



#195 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 31 January 2023 - 11:35 AM

Didnt realize his splits were that severe

#196 makoman

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Posted 31 January 2023 - 11:49 AM

Adley's were pretty severe also last year, 175/291/254 in the minors, 174/287/265 in MLB. Gunnar's were also bad 208/316/354 in the minors and 143/308/243 in the majors. Surprised Gunnar was #2 with such a line. I appreciate that he gave a reason. 



#197 BobPhelan

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Posted 01 February 2023 - 08:29 AM

ESPN/Kiley McDaniel

1. Gunnar Henderson
12. Grayson Rodriguez
17. Jackson Holliday
30. Colton Cowser
47. Coby Mayo
54. Cade Povich
66. Jordan Westburg
71. Joey Ortiz
92. Connor Norby

Noted that DL Hall just missed the cut and raved about the Orioles and their player development throughout.

#198 Mackus

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Posted 01 February 2023 - 09:44 AM

Would be thrilled to be that wrong about Povich, but seems as similar of an over-rank for him at #54 as Law's under-ranking of Cowser at #110.



#199 Mackus

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Posted 01 February 2023 - 09:46 AM

Was it McDaniel that was the most bullish on the O's system last year as well?  I recall one entity that had basically everyone higher on their list than most anybody else did on theirs but don't remember who that was.  I'll see if I can find it.  Whoever it was certainly gets to look smart after last season's progressions.


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#200 Mackus

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Posted 01 February 2023 - 11:01 AM

FanGraphs: Top 100

https://blogs.fangra...-100-prospects/

 

Rutschman 1

Rodriguez 3

Hall 27

Cowser 40
Henderson 66
Mayo 69

 

It was Fangraphs last year who was super bullish on the O's guys, with higher rankings for everyone on this list than anywhere else.

 

McDaniel/ESPN has the overall system #1, but only Rutschman and Rodriguez super high.  Cowser in the 70s and then Hall, Henderson, and Mayo all in the 90s.






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