458 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

I don't think he was considered a sure-fire SS prospect, there are usually at least some questions about high school kids being able to remain at SS as they fill out.  If I'm remembering the profiles from around draft time correctly, if he does switch off the position, CF is as likely an outcome as 3B because of his top speed, so wouldn't be a super sharp trip down the positional ladder if he outgrows or otherwise can't stick as a SS.  

[JeremyStrain]

There was def some talk about him possibly going to CF, but he was also a 2x HS Gold Glover at SS. The hit tool is unreal, power may be a little behind that though so the bat may not play at 3B as well as he would CF or 2B.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Here's what Law said about his defense, for people who don't subscribe.

 

He’s a plus runner who shows plenty of range at shortstop with enough arm for the left side of the infield, but if he outgrows short or ends up lacking the footwork for it, he could move to center field. 

[CantonJester]

No Cowser is interesting.  I expect numerous players in the back-half of the top-100 to be off of many of the lists and on others.  The tier that encapsulates the back-end of the top-100 extends way past the #100 cutoff.  No reason to think the #84 prospect is actually distinguishable from the #108 prospect, for example.  But a guy like Cowser who is more universally considered in the top-50 by most seems like they'd make all the lists.  

 

Maybe the really wide tier just starts a bit sooner this year.  Or maybe its just another personal quirk of Law's, nefarious or not.

 

 

Here's Law on Cowser:

 

The 10 MLB prospects who just missed Keith Law’s top 100 ranking: Cowser, Martinez and more - The Athletic

 

Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Age: 23 | 6-3 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 5 in 2021

Last year’s ranking: 52

Cowser was an under slot pick at fifth overall in 2021, as the Orioles wanted to replicate their 2020 strategy of spreading some of their bonus pool around to later picks, going well over slot with John Rhodes (third round) and Creed Willems (eighth round). Neither of those two players has worked out so far, but Cowser looks like he’ll be as advertised — a very solid, reliable regular, maybe a 55, but perhaps not a star. Cowser has very good feel to hit, at least against right-handed pitching, as he hit .307/.432/.530 off them, but struggled against lefties with a 33 percent strikeout rate and just a .194/.329/.287 line on the season. He took off when he reached Double A in late June, moving to a slightly better ballpark for left-handed hitters, and didn’t stop hitting until he reached Triple A in September, where he was overmatched by offspeed stuff of all varieties.

 

 

Yes, Cowser scuffled a bit in AAA, but he's still on an ascent to the bigs this season. I guess I share dude's worries re: maybe he's not going to develop much power, but .297 / .422 / .473 through his tour of the minor leagues suggests the kid's got a legit bat.  

[RichardZ]

Yes, Cowser scuffled a bit in AAA, but he's still on an ascent to the bigs this season. I guess I share dude's worries re: maybe he's not going to develop much power, but .297 / .422 / .473 through his tour of the minor leagues suggests the kid's got a legit bat.  

 

16 strikeouts in his last 77 PA in AAA.   Last year was all about adjustments as he tried to meld a power approach to his previous spray hitter approach.   He's shown a good aptitude for making adjustments as he improved at Aberdeen in June, took off with power at Bowie, and then after a disastrous start at Norfolk, pulled it together with more power (7 doubles and 5 homers among his 23 hits) and finally started to settle in with better contact towards the end.    Law's comments don't jive with his non- ranking.   A "solid regular" MAYBE not a star.   Maybe not a star is that same as MAYBE a star.    A solid regular who might be a star is not top 100 worthy?    Everyone had Cowser as a top 100 and someone had him as high as #41.    Law is dinging him for taking a step back in the contact department/hitting LHP while he took about 5 steps ahead in the power department.   I think Law is missing the forest for the trees or whatever the heck they say.   The big picture looks very bright for Cowser.   Law is focusing on specific stuff but Cowser has shown that he could make tons of contact with his previous style and hit LHP.   These are not skills that Cowser doesn't possess.   

[JeremyStrain]

16 strikeouts in his last 77 PA in AAA.   Last year was all about adjustments as he tried to meld a power approach to his previous spray hitter approach.   He's shown a good aptitude for making adjustments as he improved at Aberdeen in June, took off with power at Bowie, and then after a disastrous start at Norfolk, pulled it together with more power (7 doubles and 5 homers among his 23 hits) and finally started to settle in with better contact towards the end.    Law's comments don't jive with his non- ranking.   A "solid regular" MAYBE not a star.   Maybe not a star is that same as MAYBE a star.    A solid regular who might be a star is not top 100 worthy?    Everyone had Cowser as a top 100 and someone had him as high as #41.    Law is dinging him for taking a step back in the contact department/hitting LHP while he took about 5 steps ahead in the power department.   I think Law is missing the forest for the trees or whatever the heck they say.   The big picture looks very bright for Cowser.   Law is focusing on specific stuff but Cowser has shown that he could make tons of contact with his previous style and hit LHP.   These are not skills that Cowser doesn't possess.   

Scouts are notoriously hard to get to change opinions on kids. They are drilled that if they see something, stick to it, and trust what they see. If he didn't like him at draft time, and Law really didn't like Cowser much, it's going to be really hard to get him to change his evaluation of him now, even if it seems like he's the only outlier.

 

Sometimes, you just gotta be wrong on a kid, that's ok, no scout is perfect. But if you waffle and change your opinions all the time based on a little success or failure, no one is going to trust what you say either.

[BobPhelan]

^ Very true and Law takes this to the extreme. As recent as this time last year he was calling Grayson Rodriguez’ changeup a batting practice fastball. In this day and age where player development is king you have to open to players changing and improving things. Tough balance.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The concern over Cowser is legit. The GRod comment was supid and shows Law barely pays attention as a true observing scout. With Cowser the numbers can tell you an awful lot, almost everything about his potential problems. He deserves the respect of being on the Top 100 list and top 6 or 7 in our orgnization but someone who wants to have him at the back end of that Top 100 and 6th in the organization. I have no problem with that

[BobPhelan]

https://blogs.fangra...e-2024-top-100/

Basallo, Povich, and Norby mentioned in here.

[BobPhelan]

https://www.baseball...alent-rankings/

O’s are BA’s pre-season #1 farm system in baseball for the first time in their 40 year history.

[BaltBird 24]

Not bad considering we graduated the #1 prospect last year.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Not bad considering we graduated the #1 prospect last year.

And Stowers who would probably be top 100 or close it

[BobPhelan]

https://www.mlb.com/...peline-coverage

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Sun: Orioles minor league report: 8 prospects move up in Baseball America’s latest top 100 list

[BobPhelan]

5 - Grayson Rodriguez

7 - Jackson Holliday

34 - Colton Cowser

67 - DL Hall

68 - Jordan Westburg

81 - Connor Norby

88 - Joey Ortiz

98 - Heston Kjerstad

[You Play to Win the Game]

Kjerstad may be undervalued at 98 if this keeps up.

[BaltBird 24]

Guessing Kjerstad has to have an extended run of dominance to get some respect after missing two years. Surprised Mayo didn't crack the top 100.

[makoman]

There’s likely not a ton of difference between 68 and 98 anyway.

For example, FanGraphs has 40-100 with the same FV.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Newest MLB.com top 100

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Surprised Norby stayed on