458 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

Would be thrilled to be that wrong about Povich, but seems as similar of an over-rank for him at #54 as Law's under-ranking of Cowser at #110.

It is an outlier but he was also the one that had him just missing his mid-season top 100.

I also just think more highly of McDaniel than Law.

[Mackus]

So much of the mechanics of this interests me.  Just so many different ways I could see lists being formulated.  Too many players to have actual scouting takes on everybody.  If you've seen everyone, then you probably haven't seen any of them enough and are relying on too few games to be confident.  But then if you're not doing your own scouting, you've gotta be heavily relying on other scouts and information from teams.  Or even letting tail-wag-dog in the sense of valuing draft position or international bonuses to get a baseline.  And then you can look at stat lines, which are at least real, firm data but are very hard to contextualize for prospects.

 

And then you gotta consider simple philosophical differences.  Are we looking at a snapshot in time, who's the best today, or a projection, who'll be best in 1 year or 3 years or over the next 10.  How do you weigh higher upside if it comes with higher risk?  So many legitimate differences of opinion and approach that are all valid and all a way that you could do it depending on what you're trying to answer.

 

And then you get into my biggest pet peeve of the linear list implying a guy is distinguishable from the previous guy up and the next guy down, when it should be a pyramidal depiction with both height and width.

 

Like so many things I imagine that real wisdom is found in those that embrace how much of this they cannot know rather than those that try to pretend that they can accurately see the signal through all the noise.

 

Fun topic.  

[Nigel Tufnel]

Keith Law ranks the O's farm system as #3 in MLB, behind the Dodgers and Cleveland

 

MLB farm system rankings: Keith Law ranks all 30 teams on prospects, Dodgers stay No. 1 - The Athletic

 

 

The Orioles have the best collection of position player prospects in baseball, and it’s almost all come through the draft, although general manager Mike Elias’ commitment to participating in international free agency is already boosting the system with guys like Samuel Basallo. They might have four prospects who could be everyday shortstops in the major leagues, depending on what you think of Jordan Westburg’s glove, and most of their hitting prospects have some value on defense as well. They are lopsided toward bats, though, with two pitchers in the top 100 but probably no other pitchers who project as more than fifth starters, which is why you’ve seen them start to trade from all that hitting depth to add major-league starters, like this week’s trade of Darnell Hernaiz — who was at No. 11 on their top 20 at the time of the trade — to Oakland for Cole Irvin.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: Baltimore Orioles Top 38 Prospects

[TwentyThirtyFive]

FanGraphs: Baltimore Orioles Top 38 Prospects

Someone else who isnt a big Cowser fan. 12th overall below Kjerstad and Beavers though with the same FV. Btw GRod only being a 55 FV is whack.

[makoman]

Someone else who isnt a big Cowser fan. 12th overall below Kjerstad and Beavers though with the same FV. Btw GRod only being a 55 FV is whack.

They did say Cowser'd be a 50 if he was a CF and "reasonable minds can differ" on that. That would put him around 6.

 

I'm a big apologist, but I do agree with what they said, basically contact quality is great, rate is not. Would really help to improve that rate.

 

It's also odd to me that they had him 44 on the end of '22 top 100 and now he's 12th in the org. Maybe different people are involved with the big board.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

They did say Cowser'd be a 50 if he was a CF and "reasonable minds can differ" on that. That would put him around 6.

I'm a big apologist, but I do agree with what they said, basically contact quality is great, rate is not. Would really help to improve that rate.

It's also odd to me that they had him 44 on the end of '22 top 100 and now he's 12th in the org. Maybe different people are involved with the big board.

They hit on my concern with Cowser. I still dont think in any way he is below Kjerstad. Thats crazy IMO. He deserves more respect than Beavers too though Ill say that Beavers is gonna be one of my top guys to track this year. Looking for a big year from him. I feel like Im nearly as down on Cowser as you can get as an Os fan and I think he still deserves that 50 FV and a top 7 spot in the organization.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Damn they kind of crapped on GRod too. IM just reading through the writeups

[makoman]

Damn they kind of crapped on GRod too. IM just reading through the writeups

My impression from the write up was it was heavily influenced by September. If September is the new him he's obviously not as good. If he's back to normal after an offseason of healing he'll be fine. I mean they gave him 3 70 pitches last year (and not even the change that is 70 now) and the first half pre-injury shouldn't have changed that too much.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

My impression from the write up was it was heavily influenced by September. If September is the new him he's obviously not as good. If he's back to normal after an offseason of healing he'll be fine. I mean they gave him 3 70 pitches last year (and not even the change that is 70 now) and the first half pre-injury shouldn't have changed that too much.

Def was heavily influenced by Sept. Because of that Im not too concerned. That said, I never realized his stuff was down that much after he returned.

[dude]

FanGraphs: Baltimore Orioles Top 38 Prospects

 

I think a lot of publications have been on the Oriole-train for a while.  This actually feels like jumping off the train (more than I'd have thought).

 

It's not just the players, it's the relevance.  If Holliday is ETA 2028...that's after Adley is a FA. If Mayo isn't a 3B....maybe that's just pushing him with Gunner at 3B...but... If Hall isn't a starter,... If Cowser isn't what we've been told....

 

I'm comfortable letting everything play out.  I've said I'd plan Cowser in LF in SEP, but if he's only a platoon bat with no power, ugh.

[BSLChrisStoner]

.  If Holliday is ETA 2028...

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see Holliday reach AA here in '23, and I'd expect him to be in the Majors by August '24. 

[BobPhelan]

It’s been pointed out to me that their ETAs appear to be rule 5 eligibility dates.

[BaltBird 24]

Yeah, not sure why they'd see all the college drafted guys from 2022 being projected for 2027. If those guys haven't reached the majors by then they probably won't.

[dude]

It’s been pointed out to me that their ETAs appear to be rule 5 eligibility dates.

 

That seems like a terrible approach from a source that wants to be credible.  I didn't read the fine print, but if that's going to be your approach for the current draft class, you should probably say that (maybe they did, your comment indicates they haven't)

 

Nothing in any evaluation they make is somehow a locked into an answer like that.

[BSLChrisStoner]

ESPN+: 2023 MLB Farm System Rankings

https://www.espn.com...-kiley-mcdaniel

 

1. Baltimore Orioles ($466 million)

Last year: 1st, $344 million

Top-100 prospects: 9

This value is much higher than last year's top-rated system but is in line with recent top farm systems using this dollar-value process, with the best recent farm system running just above $500 million. Baltimore has excelled in the talent collection phase of its rebuild similarly to how Houston (with current O's GM Mike Elias running the Astros' drafts) nailed their time in the wilderness.

[dude]

 .....similarly to how Houston (with current O's GM Mike Elias running the Astros' drafts) nailed their time in the wilderness.

 

Houston actually did a terrible job with the draft.  Provable using all existing facts.  There are zero facts that support what's quoted here.

 

No issues with what the Orioles have done (actually support), but it's not how Houston built success.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Keith Law's O's top 20:

 

Orioles top 20 prospects 2023: Keith Law ranks Baltimore’s minor league farm system - The Athletic

 

The Orioles have the best collection of position-player prospects in baseball, thanks to several strong drafts under general manager Mike Elias and some shrewd trades, while for the first time since I started making these lists they have actual international free-agent talent in their top 20 as well. They’re still very light on the pitching side, with only three guys I would project as major-league starters — two inherited from the previous regime and one acquired via trade.

1. Gunnar, SS/3B
2. Rodriguez, RHP
3. Holliday, SS
4. Westburg, 3B/SS
5. Hall, LHP
6. Ortiz, SS
7. Cowser, OF
8. Norby, 2B/OF
9. Beavers, OF
10. Mayo, 3B
11. Kjerstad, OF
12. Fabian, OF
13. Povich, LHP
14. Max Wagner, 3B
15. Samuel Basallo, C
16. Seth Johnson, RHP
17. Frederick Banscome, SS
18. Drew Rom, RHP
19. Carter Young, SS
20. Braylin Tavera, OF

[BobPhelan]

https://www.baseball...100-whats-next/

4th best collection of prospects since 1990 and that obviously doesn’t include Adley who was the best prospect in baseball the year before.

[Hooded Viper]

Can I ask what everyone’s thoughts are on Jackson Holiday’s fielding ability at shortstop? It didn’t seem Law thought too highly of his defensive capabilities. Thought he was a sure fire SS prospect?