10405 replies to this topic

[Pedro Cerrano]

Got a vaccine at the convention center yesterday. Line wrapped all the way around the block, but moved reasonably. Very well organized once inside the building.

If you don’t mind me asking what qualified you for group 1C?

[Mackus]

Everyone who works at APL is 1C since we are considered critical national infrastructure.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Everyone who works at APL is 1C since we are considered critical national infrastructure.

Gotcha. I heard from someone that PG county is considering any attorney that goes to court regularly part of 1C even if you don’t live there so I submitted my application.

[glenn__davis]

A Hopkins professor and expert predicts that Covid will be "mostly gone" by April.  As the article also points out, most experts disagree.

 

https://nypost.com/2...d-end-by-april/

[glenn__davis]

Good article on "Match Zero" - the Atalanta Champions League game that (rightly or wrongly) was blamed for alot of the initial spread in Italy.

 

Just about a year ago today, amazingly.

 

https://www.espn.com...joy-in-atalanta

[RShack]

A Hopkins professor and expert predicts that Covid will be "mostly gone" by April.  As the article also points out, most experts disagree.

 

https://nypost.com/2...d-end-by-april/

 

That particular Hopkins guy is NOT an expert about this... he's a surgeon... he doesn't know much, and apparently not anything, about pandemics... if he's talking about surgery, then it makes sense to listen to him... but he's not... instead he's pretending to be a virologist, which he isn't...

 

This is another example of MD poseurs, like that MD that Trump had pushing herd immunity... same exact thing...

[You Play to Win the Game]

He's been bad for the Hopkins brand, IMO. I'm surprised they're still letting him talk to the media as much.

[RShack]

He's been bad for the Hopkins brand, IMO. I'm surprised they're still letting him talk to the media as much.

 

The problem is that Med School 101 is that MD's are all God... they don't have mechanisms to tell each other to STFU...

[Old Man]

The problem is that Med School 101 is that MD's are all God... they don't have mechanisms to tell each other to STFU...

MDs with opinions, is like people with butt holes, everybody has one.

[glenn__davis]

He's been bad for the Hopkins brand, IMO. I'm surprised they're still letting him talk to the media as much.

 

He's making a prediction, much like others have.  Some have been right, some have been wrong.  I've yet to see anyone batting a thousand on this thing yet.  

 

We were told for months at the start that due to so many people being asymptomatic that the actual infection rate was so much higher than what we knew about.  So I think certainly it's conceivable that a significant portion of Americans has some level of immunity to the virus.  Add to that the vaccine program really getting ramped up, and who knows?  I'm not saying I agree with him because I'm not an expert epidemiologist and I just don't know, but I enjoy reading through the gamut of opinions on it.

[RShack]

Some folks are way, way, way more qualified to give sound opinions than are others.   

 

Putting them all in the same category is nuts... it's like saying you or me knows as much about pitching as does a good pitching coach.  That's crazy.

 

This guy is not among those who are qualified, and he's skating on the Hopkins name.

[Nigel Tufnel]

He's making a prediction, much like others have.  Some have been right, some have been wrong.  I've yet to see anyone batting a thousand on this thing yet.  

 

We were told for months at the start that due to so many people being asymptomatic that the actual infection rate was so much higher than what we knew about.  So I think certainly it's conceivable that a significant portion of Americans has some level of immunity to the virus.  Add to that the vaccine program really getting ramped up, and who knows?  I'm not saying I agree with him because I'm not an expert epidemiologist and I just don't know, but I enjoy reading through the gamut of opinions on it.

 

I dunno.  April is like 5 weeks away.  Does it seem likely that COVID will be mostly gone in 5 weeks?

[glenn__davis]

I dunno.  April is like 5 weeks away.  Does it seem likely that COVID will be mostly gone in 5 weeks?

 

No, I don't think it's likely (though just to be a pain, I'll point out that "by April" can also mean the end of April which would be more like 9-10 weeks).

 

On the other hand, the 7-day average has fallen from 255k to 69k, from January 10 to February 21, a period of 6 weeks.  Obviously even if everything continues to progress beautifully that slope will flatten out quite a bit, but that's quite a significant drop in the height of winter.  What is causing this huge drop when all of the experts suggested absolute dire circumstances this winter?  Is it just masks and social distancing?  Because we were doing that all along.  Is the fact that winter has actually helped us, because there's just not as much to do and people are limiting their gathering?  Perhaps.  It's a question worth exploring  (and I'm sure the experts are exploring it).

[RShack]

A lot of it is the XMAS-caused surge tailing off... but before the effects of the variants show up...

[mweb08]

The drop is a little exaggerated by the lack of extensive testing going on in some places due to the weather and resulting negative impacts of it, most notably in Texas.

[You Play to Win the Game]

He's making a prediction, much like others have.  Some have been right, some have been wrong.  I've yet to see anyone batting a thousand on this thing yet.  

 

We were told for months at the start that due to so many people being asymptomatic that the actual infection rate was so much higher than what we knew about.  So I think certainly it's conceivable that a significant portion of Americans has some level of immunity to the virus.  Add to that the vaccine program really getting ramped up, and who knows?  I'm not saying I agree with him because I'm not an expert epidemiologist and I just don't know, but I enjoy reading through the gamut of opinions on it.

It isn't just this thought, but other stuff he's shared the past several months around schools, and other stuff. He comes across to me as the type who just doesn't think this is as big a deal as people have made it out to be. Which is absurd.

[glenn__davis]

The drop is a little exaggerated by the lack of extensive testing going on in some places due to the weather and resulting negative impacts of it, most notably in Texas.

 

Eh - Texas has been dealing with this for what, 2 weeks?  Numbers were coming down well before that.  Was testing down significantly prior to that?  Obviously there is more to look at than raw case count but I do think a lot of that tends to even out.

 

 

It isn't just this thought, but other stuff he's shared the past several months around schools, and other stuff. He comes across to me as the type who just doesn't think this is as big a deal as people have made it out to be. Which is absurd.

 

That's fair, I hadn't heard any of his other comments prior to the last one.  One of my best friends is a PA at Hopkins and knows this guy and says he's incredibly bright, but he stopped short of agreeing with him as well.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Tom Boswell predicts the possibility of herd immunity in late April for what it's worth.

 

Over the weekend, I tried to guesstimate how soon America might hit "herd immunity" --everybody's goal-- which the CDC estimates is 70-percent immunity for the whole population. or about 232M people. I got the stats on how many have already gotten at least one shot (from WPO), how many have tested positive and recovered, which gives them immunity (from IFHE), how many (17 and under) have almost no risk of serious illnesss and how many more people will get vaccinated (at 1.6-million-a-day) in the next 60 days. Also, CDC thinks only 1-in-4 infections has been ID'ed by tests. My guess: Herd immunity maybe by late April. "This can't be right," I said. Turns out, last week a Johns Hopkins expert came to a similar result This a.m. on CNBC, cited a J.P. Morgan analyst who predicted radically lower Covid 40-to-70 days. Same thesis.

I would not be CRAZY enough to push this idea too hard. But it's been so long since I heard, or felt any Covid optimism that I decided to mention it. How could this happen (in theory)? We were so bad at preventing transmission & deaths, but so good at developing 95% effective vaccines that the combination of awful virus prevention and great science has combined to produce 500,000 deaths but a sudden arrival of plummeting new-case stats now. Possible? I offer it just as FWIW.

 

 

Ask Boswell: NFL, MLB, NBA and Washington sports - The Washington Post

[mweb08]

Eh - Texas has been dealing with this for what, 2 weeks? Numbers were coming down well before that. Was testing down significantly prior to that? Obviously there is more to look at than raw case count but I do think a lot of that tends to even out.

I'm not contradicting what you're saying. I'm simply mentioning a caveat that has some impact on this.

https://www.cnn.com/...iday/index.html

[glenn__davis]

I'm not contradicting what you're saying. I'm simply mentioning a caveat that has some impact on this.

https://www.cnn.com/...iday/index.html

 

Good info, thanks.