10405 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

I don't think it's a "shortcut" if it's a more efficient way to end the pandemic.

 

I do agree with you though, ultimately this was one study and those that developed the vaccine would be the best to know.  But hypothetically if 1 dose is 90% effective but 2 doses is 96% effective, what is the more efficient use of the doses?  That's for people more knowledgeable than us to decide for sure.

 

Is 90/96 the right efficacies?  That sounds too high for first dose based on what I've seen.  Also just based on sheer math, 80% / 96% would jive.  But the doses perhaps aren't completely independent variables so it might not be a straight 1 - (1 - 0.90) * (1 - 0.90)  = 0.99 that you'd expect if they were.

[McNulty]

Mack read this thread

https://mobile.twitt...748387276320773

Two studies say 85 and 92% for Pfizer after one shot (15-28 days out)

[Nigel Tufnel]

Isn't there an issue with how long the vaccine will be effective?  I thought it lasts a lot longer if you get a second shot.

[JeremyStrain]

I don't think it's a "shortcut" if it's a more efficient way to end the pandemic.

 

I do agree with you though, ultimately this was one study and those that developed the vaccine would be the best to know.  But hypothetically if 1 dose is 90% effective but 2 doses is 96% effective, what is the more efficient use of the doses?  That's for people more knowledgeable than us to decide for sure.

The reports were all 50% after one, and 95% after 2. But keep in mind all of those numbers are after the roll out wave.

 

The whole point of doing this on emergency basis without the additional trials is they are adjusting as they go with the feedback they are getting live. So I'm pretty sure these reports today about the Pfizer numbers are based on their first tweak to what they rolled out first, cause the numbers were no where near that high when they first got approval.

 

Haven't seen the latest on the half life, but last I read it was 120 days. So in 4 months when people aren't protected anymore...then what?

[glenn__davis]

Is 90/96 the right efficacies?  That sounds too high for first dose based on what I've seen.  Also just based on sheer math, 80% / 96% would jive.  But the doses perhaps aren't completely independent variables so it might not be a straight 1 - (1 - 0.90) * (1 - 0.90)  = 0.99 that you'd expect if they were.

 

That was why I said hypothetically

 

As others have mentioned there are lots of variables, which I'm sure are all being looked into.  If it DID happen to be that the 1st dose was more effective than originally thought and didn't need to be stored in the -80C conditions or whatever it was then that would certainly go a long way to help with the supply issues.

[RShack]

Various reports might say lots of things... but AFAIK, we don't really know yet...

[RShack]

Pfizer says its vaccine can be OK at non-extreme freezer temps for 2 weeks...

 

https://timesnowcana...tionwide/91963/

[RShack]

Why we won't have enough vaccine for everybody sooner...

 

RNA vaccines are the new thing that enables scientists to create new vaccines overnight.

 

Once they have the blueprint of the virus they're trying to create a vaccine to fight, creating a new vaccine to fight it is plug-and-play... they can do it over a weekend.

 

This capability is a revolutionary thing...  it's an extremely big deal... it's what allows us to rapidly tweak vaccines as the virus mutates...it's in the process of saving millions of lives... and is on the way to perhaps being Science's best thing ever (so far anyway)....

 

The main supply chain issue in making enough vaccine is the availability of "lipid nanoparticles".

 

Making this stuff went from being a very fringe thing a year ago to being a hugely big deal now.

 

The challenge for suppliers of this stuff is how to go from making a total of just a few hundred grams of lipid nanoparticles to making literally many tons of it.  They know how.  They can do it.  But the immense scaling factor of going from making a tiny bit to making a huge amount is inherently something that takes time.  You gotta make the machines that make the machines that perform the tasks you need to do in order to make the stuff.

 

Bumps in the road are to be expected, and this is one of them... this particular bump should have been expected... production of this stuff should have been ramped up a year ago, but wasn't... both the feds and the drug companies coulda-shoulda been on top of this sooner... they weren't... but they're on top of it now.  It's the main supply chain factor in the race to make enough vaccine.

 

https://www.washingt...-lipids-supply/

[Dupin]

Here's a random/funny question that popped up in a group text thread with some friends.   In the past 11+ months have you dropped a deuce anywhere besides your home?  And to prove I'm not above potty humor I'll answer as well.   I know of one instance when this happened (I was actually out on a run) to me.  Besides that I think it's all been at home

 

Work, but to be fair that hasn't really changed.  Location is important, I can go in rando bathrooms.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I don't think it's a "shortcut" if it's a more efficient way to end the pandemic.

I do agree with you though, ultimately this was one study and those that developed the vaccine would be the best to know. But hypothetically if 1 dose is 90% effective but 2 doses is 96% effective, what is the more efficient use of the doses? That's for people more knowledgeable than us to decide for sure.

Reading more about it, it does seem the scientists agree this could be a viable solution. So long as they are following the science, I'm good. It's hard not to be skeptical of that though when Biden's CDC says 8% test % is the mark that's safe for schools to return, with a straight face. Too many decisions are being made based on capitalism, and not science.

[RShack]

The main problem with doing the 1-dose-for-more-people plan instead of 2-doses-for-fewer-people plan is that one of its accidental side effects is that it would be *helping* the natural selection process for the virus... it would accelerate the "survival of the fittest" process for the covid virus... you'd be helping the weaker strains die out while helping the more dangerous strains be more plentiful.  In other words, it would provide some measure of short-term gain at the cost of dangerous long-term pain.

[RShack]

Isn't there an issue with how long the vaccine will be effective?  I thought it lasts a lot longer if you get a second shot.

 

Yes.  Fauci says that's something we *know*, not just something we suspect is true...

[You Play to Win the Game]

The main problem with doing the 1-dose-for-more-people plan instead of 2-doses-for-fewer-people plan is that one of its accidental side effects is that it would be *helping* the natural selection process for the virus... it would accelerate the "survival of the fittest" process for the covid virus... you'd be helping the weaker strains die out while helping the more dangerous strains be more plentiful. In other words, it would provide some measure of short-term gain at the cost of dangerous long-term pain.

So back to my original comment. A short cut, because we can't pull our heads out of our asses.

[RShack]

So back to my original comment. A short cut, because we can't pull our heads out of our asses.

 

Oh, I agree with that...

 

This mess is gonna be an annual event unless we take steps to stamp it out... which we have never, ever taken even the first steps towards doing...

[RShack]

So back to my original comment. A short cut, because we can't pull our heads out of our asses.

 

Also... I'm not alarmed by the CDC saying 8% community infection for schools to open... because when you look at the other conditions they specify, there's not a chance in hell that any public school system you're familiar with can satisfy them right now... and if those things are not done, then teachers have every right to say, "Nope, not yet..."

 

IMO this is mainly a way to get localities to get on the ball about doing all the basic stuff we've long known about that almost none of them have done...  and because local gov'ts are all broke because of covid, in order to afford to do those things, they're gonna need the money that's in Biden's $1.9T bill... so it's mainly a case of, "If you want schools open, that's fine and good... just do all of the things you need to do... and we'll pay you to do them if you can just get your Congress-critters to sign on..."  

[Mackus]

Got a vaccine at the convention center yesterday. Line wrapped all the way around the block, but moved reasonably. Very well organized once inside the building.

[NewMarketSean]

Did you make appointment or just show up?

[mweb08]

Got a vaccine at the convention center yesterday. Line wrapped all the way around the block, but moved reasonably. Very well organized once inside the building.

 

I've gotten tested there a few times, which was also very well organized so I'm not surprised to hear that about the vaccine.

[Mackus]

Did you make appointment or just show up?

Appointment. Don't think there are any walk ins.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Got a vaccine at the convention center yesterday. Line wrapped all the way around the block, but moved reasonably. Very well organized once inside the building.

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