904 replies to this topic

[makoman]

Perhaps not, but he needs to be good. And if he's not going to have MVP caliber seasons, someone on the team is going to need to. I can't remember the last world series winner that didn't have at least one (and usually several) players having MVP type seasons.

 

Half the WS teams from 2013-2021 didn't have a top 5 MVP votes guy. Most of those, but not all, did have a top 10 guy. You can win the pennant without a huge year from a single guy. 

 

If we're going to be good, guys are going to come out of nowhere. Absolutely no one in 2011 thought Chris Davis would be a top 3 MVP two years later, leading the league in HR and RBI. 18 months ago it was questionable if Mullins would ever be a starter, much less a top 10 in MVP votes. Everyone loves Cruz nowadays but in 2014 he signed for 1/8M in late February, was he supposed to be 7th in the MVP race? Yeah, it will really help if we have a Machado who was top 10 three times for the O's, top 5 twice. But that's the point of getting depth in the farm system. It's not Wieters and Jones or bust, there are 8 position players in fangraphs' top 11 who should be in Baltimore by 2024 and probably have the potential for a crazy year one day (maybe I'm pushing it for Vavra and Kjerstad at this point, but then that's 6). 

 

I understand the idea of "you can't count on anybody." Of course you can't. But you don't have to abandon all hope and expect zero either. When you have numbers, which the system hasn't had in the 20ish years I've paid vague attention to the minors, you have much better chances.

[russsnyder]

I don't think he's as bad as he's looked. It would be hard to believe.

But (and I keep saying this) banking on these prospects being saviors just because they're highly touted is a fool's errand. The Orioles have an astounding record of highly touted prospects turning to ash at the MLB level, and while I think Adley's floor is a serviceable, league average catcher (as in a top 15 guy), looking at farm system rankings and believing that winning teams are just around the corner without seeing the performance is a recipe for disappointment.

I think he will be an above average MLB player at the least. He has tools out the ying yang. I think he has handled the initial struggles very well. I like the way that Hyde has handled him too. He's used Chiniros enough to take some of the pressure. However, you are correct, there is no guarantee.

[Slidemaster]

3 more Ks tonight. OPS down to .529. Genuinely beginning to wonder if he just wasn't ready. Reminds me a lot of Jarred Kelenic last year.

[BSLRoseKatz]

3 more Ks tonight. OPS down to .529. Genuinely beginning to wonder if he just wasn't ready. Reminds me a lot of Jarred Kelenic last year.

Posting this when his other two games he started in KC were 4-for-7 with 3 2Bs and 0 K's lol

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Posting this when his other two games he started in KC were 4-for-7 with 3 2Bs and 0 K's lol

Somehow has less baseball knowledge than football.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

No matter what he becomes, thinking that he wasnt ready is beyond dumb. He put up  a .900 OPS between AA and AAA

[Slidemaster]

Posting this when his other two games he started in KC were 4-for-7 with 3 2Bs and 0 K's lol

So what you're saying is he had two of his best games of the season and his numbers are still that bad?

Okay.

[Slidemaster]

No matter what he becomes, thinking that he wasnt ready is beyond dumb. He put up a .900 OPS between AA and AAA

Sounds like you're more convinced he'll he terrible than the possibility of him needing more time.

[Slidemaster]

Somehow has less baseball knowledge than football.

Correa looks great in that Orange and Black, doesn't he?

By the way, still convinced the O's are going to add lots of payroll next year?

[Slidemaster]

Either way, I really hope Adley turns it around, because between him struggling like he forgot how to hit, Kjerstad not having played for 2+ years, and Cowser looking like a mediocre at best prospect, that would be a historically bad stretch of high first round picks.

[BobPhelan]

Lol

[BSLRoseKatz]

So what you're saying is he had two of his best games of the season and his numbers are still that bad?

Okay.

I'm saying that you posted after his worst game of the series and not the two solid games directly before it make it very obvious what you're doing 

[Slidemaster]

I'm saying that you posted after his worst game of the series and not the two solid games directly before it make it very obvious what you're doing

I'm not "doing" anything. I just happened to check the box score today and saw how abysmally he's doing. I stopped paying close attention to the Orioles on a game by game basis years ago. There's no reason to get hung up on wins and losses when their season is over before it starts.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Today was game 18 for Adley

 

Witt after game 18 was a .543 OPS and he's been an .811 OPS since then

J-Rod after game 18 was a .524 OPS and he's been an .857 OPS since then

 

So yeah I think we might need more than 18 games from a highly touted rookie to declare they're not ready yet

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Lol

Correct response

[Slidemaster]

Today was game 18 for Adley

Witt after game 18 was a .543 OPS and he's been an .811 OPS since then
J-Rod after game 18 was a .524 OPS and he's been an .857 OPS since then

So yeah I think we might need more than 18 games from a highly touted rookie to declare they're not ready yet

I didn't declare anything. I'm expressing extremely measured concern, which is entirely appropriate given how bad he's been. I'm negative enough without you needing to mischaracterize my views.

[dude]

Building this way increases the odds of building a team that can compete and have a sustainable window.

Drafting is a component. Getting any individual players in drafts isn't the point.

The Os have organization depth. They have limited payroll obligations. They now have a core to build around. We will see what they do with that, and that should be the determination of if building this way was worthwhile.

 

You can keep saying that, but we've already proven it's not true.  When I said 4 years ago, any team you wanted in 2023 we both could have the same team, we are literally there and that point is 100% true.  In terms of future opportunity, they have accomplished nothing by losing.  They did buy themselves space for purposes we don't care about, which was always my point,.

[Mackus]

Building this way increases the odds of building a team that can compete and have a sustainable window.
 

 

I don't think this is a true statement.

 

I mean obviously its an unprovable statement, but that's not what I mean.  Just generically.  I don't think that having been an embarrassment for the past 3 seasons has improved the odds of future success in any way.  

 

I also don't think that eventually becoming decent should be the determination of whether it was worth doing things this way or not.  Unless we get a WS ring, then the cost of multiple blisteringly terrible seasons is too high of a price to pay for a decent short period of success.  Won't have been worth it unless they get a ring.  A ring is worth any cost.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I don't think this is a true statement.

 

I mean obviously its an unprovable statement, but that's not what I mean.  Just generically.  I don't think that having been an embarrassment for the past 3 seasons has improved the odds of future success in any way.  

 

I also don't think that eventually becoming decent should be the determination of whether it was worth doing things this way or not.  Unless we get a WS ring, then the cost of multiple blisteringly terrible seasons is too high of a price to pay for a decent short period of success.  Won't have been worth it unless they get a ring.  A ring is worth any cost.

 

I'm not sure how to respond really beyond that I agree today it's unprovable, and yes... I agree the determining factor is a championship. 

 

The O's have something like 12 winning seasons since '84.
Obviously haven't won a championship since '83. 

 

I suspect the O's are about to have their best sustained run of my / our lifetimes, and I think the odds of the O's winning a championship are higher having built this way vs. any other way they could have built / utilized the '19-'21 seasons. 

[Slidemaster]

I'm not sure how to respond really beyond that I agree today it's unprovable, and yes... I agree the determining factor is a championship.

The O's have something like 12 winning seasons since '84.
Obviously haven't won a championship since '83.

I suspect the O's are about to have their best sustained run of my / our lifetimes, and I think the odds of the O's winning a championship are higher having built this way vs. any other way they could have built / utilized the '19-'21 seasons.

I wish I felt even half as much confidence as you do.

To me this just feels like more of the same as far as on-field results are concerned, and we keep pushing back the target date.