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John Means


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#161 makoman

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Posted 17 April 2022 - 12:20 PM

That's a good take.  Kinda hard to show up in Arbitration hearing and argue for something when you can't pitch.  Means should just take the 2.7M at this point.

In theory the hearing should proceed based only on prior facts, ignoring 2022, as that's what the decision is supposed to be based on. In reality that's hard to do, it's like telling a jury to simply ignore that damning confession that they heard but weren't supposed to.

 

I could almost see an arbitrator going further the other way in Means' favor, almost to show everyone that they are definitely not being biased by 2022. So I wouldn't necessarily give up yet. But people with these types of jobs are supposed to be able to figure out the appropriate weight to give to things.



#162 dude

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Posted 17 April 2022 - 12:55 PM

In theory the hearing should proceed based only on prior facts, ignoring 2022, as that's what the decision is supposed to be based on. In reality that's hard to do, it's like telling a jury to simply ignore that damning confession that they heard but weren't supposed to.

 

I could almost see an arbitrator going further the other way in Means' favor, almost to show everyone that they are definitely not being biased by 2022. So I wouldn't necessarily give up yet. But people with these types of jobs are supposed to be able to figure out the appropriate weight to give to things.

 

Yeah, I don't know how an arbiter can possibly divorce himself from the consideration the guy isn't going to pitch.

 

If I'm Means, I'd be tempted to create a deal that brings in 2023 and 2024.  He's going into 2023 with nothing for stats and you want to stay in care of a team. 

 

Maybe I'm jumping the gun here on the injury, but nothing about this seems good and while you can wait out pieces of this, the arbitration hearing is fixed sooner than later.



#163 makoman

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Posted 17 April 2022 - 01:05 PM

Yeah, I don't know how an arbiter can possibly divorce himself from the consideration the guy isn't going to pitch.

 

If I'm Means, I'd be tempted to create a deal that brings in 2023 and 2024.  He's going into 2023 with nothing for stats and you want to stay in care of a team. 

 

Maybe I'm jumping the gun here on the injury, but nothing about this seems good and while you can wait out pieces of this, the arbitration hearing is fixed sooner than later.

Yeah, I think a reasonable 2 or even 3 year deal would be good for everyone. Means (and the team) should know that going to arb again this winter isn't going to be very fruitful, assuming TJ or at least losing the bulk of 2022 is the reality at this point. Both sides know, and have to be disappointed by the fact that, he's losing time to injury every year.

 

This is hindsight for me, and I wasn't a fan of blowing up this season, but given how it's gone I kind of wish this was the Mets' problem at this point or something like that, but c'est la vie.


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#164 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 17 April 2022 - 01:46 PM

In theory the hearing should proceed based only on prior facts, ignoring 2022, as that's what the decision is supposed to be based on. In reality that's hard to do, it's like telling a jury to simply ignore that damning confession that they heard but weren't supposed to.

 

I could almost see an arbitrator going further the other way in Means' favor, almost to show everyone that they are definitely not being biased by 2022. So I wouldn't necessarily give up yet. But people with these types of jobs are supposed to be able to figure out the appropriate weight to give to things.

 

The only precedence might come from the aftermath of 1994-95 strike, when arbitration hearings extended well into the '95 season. But I don't have enough recollection to know whether or not anyone had already suffered a major injury prior to their hearing. You might be able to glean something by looking at those hearings and seeing if there was any correlation between players whose '95 season got off to a really hot start (or a really cold one) and whether they won their hearing.



#165 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 11:21 AM

So are they still trying to determine if Tommy John is needed? What's the delay, I'd think getting the surgery done sooner than later would make the most sense. Unless this is just another excuse they'll use to kick the can down the road another year in terms of having any actual on-field expectations.


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#166 Mackus

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 11:33 AM

If rest and rehab can possibly avoid the surgery, then that's the best course of action.  I know that often it feels inevitable, and if you're going to have the surgery sooner is better than later.  But that feeling of inevitability isn't real, and often enough guys are able to avoid the knife.  I think we collectively overestimate how recoverable of a surgery it is, lots of guys don't make it back or are not nearly as good after this surgery.  It seems to be getting better every year, so I may be overstating how un-recoverable it is, but I'd definitely be willing to take on the cost of waiting a month or two if you think there is a reasonable chance that doing so means you could avoid the surgery.


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#167 makoman

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 11:38 AM

If rest and rehab can possibly avoid the surgery, then that's the best course of action.  I know that often it feels inevitable, and if you're going to have the surgery sooner is better than later.  But that feeling of inevitability isn't real, and often enough guys are able to avoid the knife.  I think we collectively overestimate how recoverable of a surgery it is, lots of guys don't make it back or are not nearly as good after this surgery.  It seems to be getting better every year, so I may be overstating how un-recoverable it is, but I'd definitely be willing to take on the cost of waiting a month or two if you think there is a reasonable chance that doing so means you could avoid the surgery.

Yeah I think we just don't really hear about the guys who rested for two months and didn't need surgery. We always expect TJ when we hear of dreaded forearm problems, but surely some percentage doesn't end up needing it. Avoiding surgery is almost always the best case if it can be done.



#168 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 12:22 PM

It seems like even those who recover and up getting the surgery in the following year or two. But I guess that’s reasonable. I thought his case was one where it was inevitable but I see that’s premature.

“We have a shot at a wild card right now. But it is not a probability that we're going to win a wild card.” -2022 Trade Deadline

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#169 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 12:34 PM

So are they still trying to determine if Tommy John is needed? What's the delay, I'd think getting the surgery done sooner than later would make the most sense. Unless this is just another excuse they'll use to kick the can down the road another year in terms of having any actual on-field expectations.

 

He's a human being. Most of us would rather not get cut into and have our tendons swapped if we don't absolutely have to.


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#170 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 12:35 PM


He's a human being. Most of us would rather not get cut into and have our tendons swapped if we don't absolutely have to.

Thanks for that enlightening insight.

“We have a shot at a wild card right now. But it is not a probability that we're going to win a wild card.” -2022 Trade Deadline

"It's liftoff from here" - after selling on 2022

"We're on a slight upward arc" - Winter Meetings 2022

"I think it's really hard to sit there and chart a course and say, 'We're likely to win the division.'" - Winter Meetings 2022

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#171 NewMarketSean

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 12:39 PM

As far as I am concerned, Means isn't an Oriole anymore. I don't expect him to pitch again, stay healthy or pitch effectively.

 

That's not a knock against him, but my defeatist outlook on this team. Hope for best, but expect the worst. And the worst is usually reality.

 

Just have to move on and hope the guys coming up can replace him and more.


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#172 Mackus

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 02:17 PM

Just shoot him like he's a lame horse, huh? :)


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#173 Mike B

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 03:43 PM

He's a human being. Most of us would rather not get cut into and have our tendons swapped if we don't absolutely have to.

Yep, I have been putting off Knee surgery for about 4 months but in all honesty the Orioles have not called and asked me to pitch.  I do fit one of their requirements though, I would pitch for the minimum.  


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#174 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 03:51 PM

Yep, I have been putting off Knee surgery for about 4 months but in all honesty the Orioles have not called and asked me to pitch.  I do fit one of their requirements though, I would pitch for the minimum.  

 

I'm guessing you also aren't a confessed cocaine user and illicit distributor of dangerous controlled substances, and you aren't facing a 60-game suspension by the league. And even if you absolutely stink at pitching, you still clear the bar. You're hired!

 

(now as for that knee surgery)

 

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#175 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 04:19 PM

I suspect the medical experts look at all the options and ultimately lay out the choices for the patient.

 

In this specific situation, if I was Means I would want to know the following:

a. % chance that I could avoid surgery if I wait.

b. % chance that the surgery would be successful. Does that % change if I do it now vs waiting.

c. Expected recovery time if I wait vs if I have the surgery. % chance I will pitch again this year if I just rest.

 

For sake of discussion, my thinking would be something like this. If its just 50-50 that I can rest and avoid the surgery and I likely don't pitch again this year anyway and the success for the surgery is north of 90% then I'd do it right away.



#176 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 04:20 PM

So he might be a non tender guy then. I mean it depends on how this all plays out but its a possibility.

#177 Mackus

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 04:43 PM

Absolute zero chance of a non-tender.  Even if he waits until late this season for surgery and will likely miss all of 2023, they could still find someone to pay his 2023 salary in order to have him on their roster in 2024 (and possibly late in '23).  The return would be small compared to what it would have been without an injury, but it'll still be way above zero.



#178 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 04:50 PM

Absolute zero chance of a non-tender.  Even if he waits until late this season for surgery and will likely miss all of 2023, they could still find someone to pay his 2023 salary in order to have him on their roster in 2024 (and possibly late in '23).  The return would be small compared to what it would have been without an injury, but it'll still be way above zero.

Still a lot to play out. Considering his salary is relatively low yeah it makes it much more likely a team, including the Os, would pay him to sit out '23. Can you trade a player on the 60 man DL? I dont think its zero but at this point its such a low% that I dont think its worth discussing.



#179 Mackus

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Posted 20 April 2022 - 05:40 PM

Yeah, you can trade a guy on the 60-day.  But there isn't one in the offseason, so he'd just be on the 40-man at that point.



#180 JeremyStrain

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Posted 21 April 2022 - 10:18 AM

Still a lot to play out. Considering his salary is relatively low yeah it makes it much more likely a team, including the Os, would pay him to sit out '23. Can you trade a player on the 60 man DL? I dont think its zero but at this point its such a low% that I dont think its worth discussing.


You COULD, but his value is so tanked that you'd be stupid to do it. Even if you THINK there's a good likelyhood of recovery, you never REALLY know, so you're giving the other team all the leverage, for a chip like that especially you ride it out and hope he comes back strong.

 

Much like the Manny and his knee scenario, this is when I'd be looking to extend him, not think about trading him.


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