550 replies to this topic

[mweb08]

Let's not act like Abreu was a sure thing or anything close to it. And let's especially not act like we had much of a clue of how good he'd be.

There are very few "sure things", and no one said Abreu was... I've always said we needed to be "in" on the top international FA's, because they cost nothing besides money to be worth the inherent risk. http://www.baltimore...e-4#entry212786

Teams should be on them depending on many variables with their own evaluation of that player being foremost. I can't bash a team for passing on a Cuban that was going to require a 70+ million dollar investment, even though I, with my very limited knowledge of that player, would have been excited about the acquisition.

[Greg Pappas]

Teams should be on them depending on many variables with their own evaluation of that player being foremost. I can't bash a team for passing on a Cuban that was going to require a 70+ million dollar investment, even though I, with my very limited knowledge of that player, would have been excited about the acquisition.

You're point is well taken. We'll likely never know how our scouts viewed Abreu. But for a team that acknowledges our disinterest in bidding on top International FA's, I can't imagine we weren't sure on some. We all know how this team typically operates, and the day we sign a top-tier IFA, will be an amazing day indeed.

[mweb08]

Teams should be on them depending on many variables with their own evaluation of that player being foremost. I can't bash a team for passing on a Cuban that was going to require a 70+ million dollar investment, even though I, with my very limited knowledge of that player, would have been excited about the acquisition.

You're point is well taken. We'll likely never know how our scouts viewed Abreu. But for a team that acknowledges our disinterest in bidding on top International FA's, I can't imagine we weren't sure on some. We all know how this team typically operates, and the day we sign a top-tier IFA, will be an amazing day indeed.

And how many other teams can that be said of if we're limiting this to free agents that cost considerably more than Chen, who should be considered a top tier IFA IMO?

[Greg Pappas]

And how many other teams can that be said of if we're limiting this to free agents that cost considerably more than Chen, who should be considered a top tier IFA IMO?

Chen was not a Darvish, Tanaka-type top-tier guy... but rather a second-tier quality guy. That was a good sign. As far as how many other teams have the same issues-- why does this matter? It isn't relevant to whether or not WE should be bidding for the top guys. I'd rather branch out, risk for greatness and fail, than stay rooted and hope that sunlight filtering through taller trees is enough for me to shine.

[mweb08]

And how many other teams can that be said of if we're limiting this to free agents that cost considerably more than Chen, who should be considered a top tier IFA IMO?

Chen was not a Darvish, Tanaka-type top-tier guy... but rather a second-tier quality guy. That was a good sign. As far as how many other teams have the same issues-- why does this matter? It isn't relevant to whether or not WE should be bidding for the top guys. I'd rather branch out, risk for greatness and lose- than stay rooted, content with the sunlight that taller trees let through.

You absolutely have to put things in perspective. I'm guessing the Chen signing was a bigger international signing than a strong majority of teams have ever made. That doesn't excuse them from doing more, but it should be considered in the discussion.

[Coker]

There have been two trades today with prospects/minor league players going one way, with international bonus value slots going the other.

The Brewers picked up $339,000 in space to stay under their cap with an upcoming signing. The Rays, on the other hand, picked up 1M in bonus slots.

Does anybody else think the O's should make similar moves? The O's FO making a trade to ADD intentional bonus slots would really signal a change, IMO. I think a lot of us would be excited about the prospect of the O's making additional moves within the international free agent market.

[SportsGuy]

It's silly to say a 6/70+ million dollar gamble was worth it based on so little. It's one thing for a team to be confident to Stotle's point, but for one of us to reach that conclusion is poor, but I guess that won't stop you from bragging about being right on your mostly non educated guess.

I can read scouting reports and what his upside was like. Most people felt he was a huge power prospect.

Even outside of Abreu, Davis should have been dealt.

[SportsGuy]

Btw...I wanted us to sign Tanaka but I'm not saying we made a mistake because of what it cost to get him.

I just felt, based on everything we heard, that signing Abreu would have been a good move...and trading Davis(assuming the right deal was there), was something we should have done IMO.

[dude]

The Brewers picked up $339,000 in space to stay under their cap with an upcoming signing. The Rays, on the other hand, picked up 1M in bonus slots.

Does anybody else think the O's should make similar moves? The O's FO making a trade to ADD intentional bonus slots would really signal a change, IMO. I think a lot of us would be excited about the prospect of the O's making additional moves within the international free agent market.

 

I didn't quote your other point on Miguel Gonzalez, but you are absolutely right and it's comical listening to people try and spin MGon1 as an example of "international" success....the guy came to the Orioles with a year of ML service....how many international signings have a year of service?

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To the point on the Brewers....I learned something today as I was reading about their pursuit of additional International Pool dollars before signing Gilbert Lara.

 

I've suggested (in the past) that teams do something that you apparently can't do....so I was wrong and wanted to correct it.  Once you blow by your pool amount, apparently, you can't add cap after that point.....so the Brewers are trying to add (up to 50%) to their pool before inking Lara.

 

The Yankees have already blown by their Pool so adding other cap dollars doesn't impact their penalty amount (even if they could add it).

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To your point on adding Pool space....I'm all for it....but the challenge today is that all the top guys have basically signed or reasonably committed.  The Orioles, despite the mythology of what MacPhail did in the DR some 6 years ago.....don't appear to have any of the relationships that allow them to sign the top guys.  

 

It's more than the Pool space....it's getting to these guys through their trainers, etc to have a chance to use your pool cap.  Another interesting article on BA before the signing period discussing how hard it is to see a lot of these guys because the talent is making commitments early to teams and then staying out of the showcases where they'd typically get scouted.  You've got to get on the front side of the process and the Orioles aren't really on the front side of anything.

 

Value management is their only strategy because they choose not to be proactive.

[dude]

Baltimore Sun: O's sign two players to IFA deals

http://articles.balt...ign-two-players

 

Hadn't read this yet....but someone should let Encina know that MGon1 wasn't an IFA signing.  Too funny.

 

Maybe he's just using a really loose literary license in the article....but he's certainly trying to insinuate that MGon1 qualifies as the same type of signing as MGon2.

[mweb08]

It's silly to say a 6/70+ million dollar gamble was worth it based on so little. It's one thing for a team to be confident to Stotle's point, but for one of us to reach that conclusion is poor, but I guess that won't stop you from bragging about being right on your mostly non educated guess.

I can read scouting reports and what his upside was like. Most people felt he was a huge power prospect.


Even outside of Abreu, Davis should have been dealt.

Great, you read some scouting reports on a guy that scouts had limited access to. I take back everything, you clearly had an amazing understanding of him as a player. As for Davis, you have little idea if an offer would have been made to get you to deal him. Other teams saw the risk there too and you saw the potential for more great seasons.

[SportsGuy]

Great, you read some scouting reports on a guy that scouts had limited access to. I take back everything, you clearly had an amazing understanding of him as a player. As for Davis, you have little idea if an offer would have been made to get you to deal him. Other teams saw the risk there too and you saw the potential for more great seasons.

WTF?  I had enough of an understand that I felt he was a good target.

You wanted Tanaka based off of the same shit...So please, spare me your bs.  We always formulate opinions on guys we havent seen off of those reports and what is being said.

 

As it turns out, Abreu has been better than I thought he would be...but that was a bonus.

 

And sure, we don't know what was there for Davis...feel pretty confident saying ENOUGH would have been there though, especially with the lack of offense and power in the game anymore.

[bnickle]

I know this is surprising for Rob, but I thought you wanted to sign Davis to an extension this past off-season.

[Mackus]

WTF?  I had enough of an understand that I felt he was a good target.

You wanted Tanaka based off of the same shit...So please, spare me your bs.  We always formulate opinions on guys we havent seen off of those reports and what is being said.

 

As it turns out, Abreu has been better than I thought he would be...but that was a bonus.

 

And sure, we don't know what was there for Davis...feel pretty confident saying ENOUGH would have been there though, especially with the lack of offense and power in the game anymore.

 

Behind maybe you and Chris, I was as high as anyone on going after Abreu.  But I don't think any of us would have suggested matching, yet alone beating, the deal he ended up getting from Chicago.  I think we were all throwing around numbers a good 20-25% lower than what he ended up signing.  Without hindsight, I don't think we would've liked the numbers given to Abreu, though obviously we would've been excited to have him even if we thought it was an overpay.

 

Another thing to consider is if we sign Abreu, we almost certainly don't sign Cruz.  We'd be in better shape long term having Abreu for a very reasonable contract, but not any better off this season than we are otherwise (unless you are adding in trading Davis and still signing Cruz, deciding to play Abreu everyday at 1B).

[SportsGuy]

I know this is surprising for Rob, but I thought you wanted to sign Davis to an extension this past off-season.

Not really...I wanted him dealt.

 

I would have signed him to an extension if he had taken one that was 6/100 or less...but he wasn't doing that(which was part of the reason I wanted him dealt).

[SportsGuy]

Behind maybe you and Chris, I was as high as anyone on going after Abreu.  But I don't think any of us would have suggested matching, yet alone beating, the deal he ended up getting from Chicago.  I think we were all throwing around numbers a good 20-25% lower than what he ended up signing.  Without hindsight, I don't think we would've liked the numbers given to Abreu, though obviously we would've been excited to have him even if we thought it was an overpay.

 

Another thing to consider is if we sign Abreu, we almost certainly don't sign Cruz.  We'd be in better shape long term having Abreu for a very reasonable contract, but not any better off this season than we are otherwise (unless you are adding in trading Davis and still signing Cruz, deciding to play Abreu everyday at 1B).

You may still have signed Cruz given the way things played out.

[Matt_P]

I'm not sold on Abreu. The reason why he's good is due to that insane 34.3% HR/FB rate. There are six players in the majors with higher than a 20% HR/FB rate. The only player since 2000 to put up a rate above 30% consistently was Ryan Howard.

 

Don't buy it. I see a 20% HR/FB rate as more sustainable which would make him an above average bat but not great. And when his power fades a bit in a year or two then he'll be useless.

[SportsGuy]

I'm not sold on Abreu. The reason why he's good is due to that insane 34.3% HR/FB rate. There are six players in the majors with higher than a 20% HR/FB rate. The only player since 2000 to put up a rate above 30% consistently was Ryan Howard.

 

Don't buy it. I see a 20% HR/FB rate as more sustainable which would make him an above average bat but not great. And when his power fades a bit in a year or two then he'll be useless.

I expected him to be similar to what Davis was in 2012.

[Greg Pappas]

Yeah, I see Abreu as a .270/30/100 guy, going forward. Who knows though...

[Coker]

Brittany Ghiroli ‏@Britt_Ghiroli  34s

The #Orioles signed 20-yr old Gionel Santa out of the DR. 6-2, 195 lb right-handed power hitter. Plays third base.

Edit: More from Britt on her Bird Watch Blog

 

The Orioles have signed 20-year-old third baseman Gionel Santa out of the Dominican Republic. The right-handed hitter is listed at 6-2 and 195 pounds and is considered a power hitter.

Santa signed with Toronto last year, but he ended up getting suspended due to some kind of issue with his birth certificate and became re-eligible this year. Santa is one of several players Duquette saw on his trip to the Dominican Republic last week, with the O’s passing on several others that they were considering last week. The Blue Jays offered Santa $485, 000 last year and –while I don’t have an exact figure– the O’s got him for a little less.

I can find absolutely ZERO information on this guy. None whatsoever. Maybe somebody else will have some better luck.

Either the guy had to change his name (hence the whole birth certificate issue), or he's a fake person. 

Edit of the Edit: Unless it's Adelyn Santa (would be 19 not 20, but he's listed as 6'1 195lb 3Bman in all the 2011 BA International Signing stuff). He was originally signed by the Tigers in 2011 for 750k but then released early in 2012. Maybe he then had an agreement with the Blue Jays in 2013 but that was pulled? I don't know. Gionel Santa doesn't exist.