615 replies to this topic

[BSLMikeLowe]

Wonder if they still have a strong hold on the island of Aruba?

 

They burned their bridges on that island when Ponson punched out a judge.

[dude]

Well, this puts my cynical theory to rest as to why he went to the DR. Sounds like it was strictly a business decision, and seems to have paid off.

 

A little more here from this article with Jesse Sanchez and Jake Rill.

 

"The O’s are confident that’s the case with Almeyda, who was born in Paterson, N.J., before his family moved to the Dominican Republic when he was 15 to take care of his grandmother who has Alzheimer's disease."

 

This was the kind of thing I was looking for, but hadn't really seen it until posted here (I certainly haven't looked that much)...now maybe that's just a justification or a smoke screen or whatever, but his mom is Dominican and his grandparents are there..

[BobPhelan]

This isn’t meant critically, but I’m just looking forward to one of these kids actually contributing, hopefully soon. It’s been a long wait and it’s embarrassing how little actual major league production we’ve gotten from the international system. Glad they remain committed to fixing that. At the same time, I want results too. Know this type of thing takes a lot longer though.

These kids are largely signed as 16-17 year olds and are raw as they don’t have the structure of a high school or college environment like they do in the States. So the first class from 2019 is mostly 19-20 years old still. And they’re still not completely caught up to the rest of the league but should be very soon with the new DR academy opening sometime this year.

Except when you find a phenom, these kids are taking 6-8 years to make the majors if they develop. Even the phenoms take 3-5 years.

They have signed some talented players with potential. Basallo will be in full season ball at 18 this year. Bencosme reached high A at 19. Almeyda will skip the DSL and start in the FCL this year. Just takes time, that’s why it is such a sin that they weren’t involved earlier.

[BSLMikeLowe]

A little more here from this article with Jesse Sanchez and Jake Rill.

 

"The O’s are confident that’s the case with Almeyda, who was born in Paterson, N.J., before his family moved to the Dominican Republic when he was 15 to take care of his grandmother who has Alzheimer's disease."

 

This was the kind of thing I was looking for, but hadn't really seen it until posted here (I certainly haven't looked that much)...now maybe that's just a justification or a smoke screen or whatever, but his mom is Dominican and his grandparents are there..

 

Dan Connolly has a quote from Almeyda to go with it.

 

“My grandma was really sick, and we went to the Dominican Republic to take care of her,” said Almeyda, who is called Ayden by friends and teammates. “And I took it as an advantage. I was looking at it like, ‘OK, we could go here for, you know, a little bit of time, train and then go back and be ready for high school ball.’ But it didn’t work like that.”

 

Sounds like it was purely a family decision. I would think if he really wanted to stay in the US he would have had someone to live with, but understandable that he wanted to go with his parents.

[dude]

IFA signing period starts in a couple weeks and I certainly haven't looked that hard, but Jesse Sanchez and others usually roll out info on top50 and potential (likely) destinations....again, I didn't look a lot, but I didn't see much of anything out there, not just for the Orioles, but in general.

 

Do we know (Bob?, others?) where the Orioles are lined up on any of the top 50 guys?

[makoman]

I saw a tweet a while back that this guy (28 on pipeline), previously linked to Yankees, had flipped to Os. No idea of credibility.

https://www.mlb.com/...martinez-815913

[BobPhelan]

International signing day is today. O’s have 4 of the top 100 signing bonuses.

Emilio Sanchez, SS (a little over $1 million)
Stiven Martinez, OF (a little under $1 million)
Elvin Garcia, SS (~$500,000)
Jemone Brown, SS (~$500,000)

Other names known so far

Yaki Mondesir, RHP
Argenis Valdez, OF
Alexander Rincon, OF
Saul Gomez, 3B

[Mackus]

$7.1M is the total pool for the O's this year. Tied with 5 other teams for the largest allocation.

Don't care how they spend it as long as they spend it all.

There is a stud Japanese pitcher who probably gets posted next off-season. Will be interesting to see if he signs at the end of this class or the beginning of the next one. Should be more money available to him in Jan of '25. In either case, he's young enough he is subject to the IFA rules, so he can't get a huge deal like Yamamoto, he'll be limited to the bonus pool amount any team has to offer him. Saving money in this year's pool or acquiring additional money for next year's pool to make a run at Sasaki would be a risky but interesting approach.

[dude]

$7.1M is the total pool for the O's this year. Tied with 5 other teams for the largest allocation.

Don't care how they spend it as long as they spend it all.

There is a stud Japanese pitcher who probably gets posted next off-season. Will be interesting to see if he signs at the end of this class or the beginning of the next one. Should be more money available to him in Jan of '24. In either case, he's young enough he is subject to the IFA rules, so he can't get a huge deal like Yamamoto, he'll be limited to the bonus pool amount any team has to offer him. Saving money in this year's pool or acquiring additional money for next year's pool to make a run at Sasaki would be a risky but interesting approach.

 

Good stuff.  I'd only note, you don't have to spend it to get THE player, you can share it with someone else to get THE player and you work it into something else you want.

 

...so that's potential value for someone like the Mariners or Dodgers or Padres per other trade discussions.

[BobPhelan]

$1.3M for Sanchez, $950,000 for Martinez.

They’ll spend it all. For last years money they saved some and used $450,000 on a Cuban OF a month or two ago and then spent the rest on some arms.

[Mike B]

$1.3M for Sanchez, $950,000 for Martinez.

They’ll spend it all. For last years money they saved some and used $450,000 on a Cuban OF a month or two ago and then spent the rest on some arms.

Good news.  The Orioles have done a good job becoming players in the International market.  Facilities and player bonuses.

[BSLChrisStoner]

• O's, Dodgers lead in unspent international money

[Mackus]

I'll forgive letting some 2024 money go unspent because of the uncertainty around Sasaki.  This isn't the same as letting money go unspent in a normal year and I don't doubt that Elias would've spent it if he didn't want to keep somewhat of an arsenal available in case of a posting.  That mindset also gives me a bit more confidence about our odds of landing him, though it's still a big long shot.

 

MLBTR also had an article earlier in the offseason about "uncommitted" 2025 dollars.  Many teams have verbal agreements with top guys for 2025 bonuses and its questionable whether they would break those to pursue Sasaki.  Its obviously not as fungible as signed bonuses, but they reported the O's as being among the teams with the most dollars that they haven't promised to anyone else.

[BSLMikeLowe]

That’s a lot of cash left on the table for a regime that tends to at least come close to its spending limit. Was that really about Sasaki? Or did they just not have anyone on their radar that they thought was worth it?

 

As for 2025 I would not break any pre-agreed deals to chase a rare pre-FA Japanese player, as I think that could engender a lack of trust in the Latin American market that could be very difficult to overcome, especially for an organization that is still a relatively new player down there. Of course I’m also a huge skeptic that Sasaki would seriously consider Baltimore, so easy to say just move on to guys you can realistically get….maybe the front office is sensing more interest from him than I’d expect.

[Mackus]

That’s a lot of cash left on the table for a regime that tends to at least come close to its spending limit. Was that really about Sasaki? Or did they just not have anyone on their radar that they thought was worth it?

 

As for 2025 I would not break any pre-agreed deals to chase a rare pre-FA Japanese player, as I think that could engender a lack of trust in the Latin American market that could be very difficult to overcome, especially for an organization that is still a relatively new player down there. Of course I’m also a huge skeptic that Sasaki would seriously consider Baltimore, so easy to say just move on to guys you can realistically get….maybe the front office is sensing more interest from him than I’d expect.

 

Also wouldn't renege on any deals, but doesn't sound like they'll need to.  Will be interesting to see what other teams are doing in that regard.  I do think Sasaki is worth burning bridges over, largely because I think those bridges are easy to mend, but also because getting an instant impact contributor is worth a few years of missing out on all the top end 16 y/os and having to choose from the lower level guys.

[dude]

If I'm wrong, awesome, but I don't see how the Orioles are in on him. 

 

I don't know what his tour is all about.  What are you going to learn in a short meeting with a team that would sway all other information you're already disposed too.  Does he just like the attention coming to the US?  Hit a bar in the major cities before signing?  There really isn't any process for him.  All the money range is known and limited.  Nobody is outbidding anyone so just pick the team you want to play for for the next 6 (whatever) years.  Not sure why we need mystery.

 

Winter Meeting posting certainly allowed him to leverage 2024 money and the Dodgers could have pulled together 6M and he's worth plenty more there....but with him not signing already, I'm moving to the Padres.

 

Padres have been players on the biggest IFA the last couple of years so they'll need some help with a 60% add to their pool.  That's about 3.75M for their 2025 allotment and could allow them to still pursue some Talent in IFA.  Pads also have something of a spend problem and a terrible minor league system, so if they wanted to make a play for Cease (!14M in ARB3), there's certainly an angle there.

 

I'd love to believe we're proactive, but I doubt it.

[Mackus]

We now know that the Winter Meeting posting was very obviously about capitalizing on the attention and not about signing before the 2024 period ended. His actions show he was always planning on waiting until 2025 and everyone getting to refresh their pools.

I don't see why you'd think the Orioles are out when everyone else, many with money already committed to other top guys, are in. I think it's a long shot they land him, but a near certainty that they pursue him and not just in the "send a letter" way that MacPhail or Duquette may have. It's worth delaying any commitments to the best 16 y/o kids to take this shot even if it's a 1-in-20 type chance.

Also down with your idea of trading half of our 2025 pool to the Pads as a big part of a Cease trade. But I'd only do that after Sasaki tells me he isn't coming here. Without that, I'm pushing hard for him.

[dude]

 Without that, I'm pushing hard for him.

 

I guess I still don't know what "pushing hard" means.  What are the Orioles going to do or say that he doesn't already know?  If he has some reason to be in the Capitol Region (something we don't know), great, get him, but whatever that is, is already baked into the endstate.  All 30 teams would figure out how to pay him.  There isn't anything special that anyone can do that isn't already done. 

 

Sugano said in his presser that he isn't recruiting Sasaki, didn't know him and never spoke to him. Maybe that's a smoke screen but there's no reason to be coy on the part of Sasaki or the Team(s).  There is no real difference in anyone's bid.  Whoever he picks will give the same (similar) money (and no difference than he could have by waiting).   

[Mackus]

I guess I still don't know what "pushing hard" means.

At a minimum, it means not signing other top guys or trading away your pool so you can't even offer max value to Sasaki. I'd work to set up trades to acquire more pool (though not pull the trigger until he says yes) and also put clauses in his deal that allows him to reach free agency faster (if legal).

 

They'll have a lot less ambiguity than we do. If Sasaki won't meet with them or tells them they're out after the first round, pivot away and do other things with that money.  Go sign some of the big ticket 16 y/o players that other teams are pausing on or trade away half your pool to for something else of value to help push one team over the edge.

 

But to me on the outside it sounds like the Orioles were holding some of the 2024 bonus pool in reserve and haven't made any handshake agreements with top players to commit any of their 2025 budget.  I certainly don't think they are just sitting out the international market, so to me, it seems like they think they have a good enough shot to pause on the other acquisitions and make their best effort at Sasaki.  I think that is the absolute right choice, if it is indeed what they are doing.  I'd rather they try and come up empty than punt before knowing they are out.  Think Sasaki is worth that type of gamble, he's like a 50-to-1 payout, so long odds but huge return if you land him.  If you think you have even a 5-10% chance to land him its worth the risk of your pool money being underutilized if you aren't the winner.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I don't understand all the nuances here but apparently every team is allowed to send him "virtual presentations' but in person presentations are by invitation only. And the O's are not one of the teams to get one of those, at least not yet. The Yankees and Mets did and met with him already.

 

Our chance is not zero but it might as well be.