713 replies to this topic

[JeffLong]

Good article Jeff, enjoyed this.

Thanks Chris. This one was especially fun to write so I'm glad to hear others are enjoying it.

[Mackus]

I'm also a huge Adam Jones fan.

As far as performance in 2013, in the players forum, I said I expected a slight step back from last year, something like 285/330/485/815 with 28 HRs and I'll stand by that. I think he'll be pretty close to those numbers. Improving even further on 2012 and getting into the 860 range wouldn't shock me, but I think we have a pretty good idea of who Adam is as a hitter. I think absolute worst case would be him dropping all the way back down to a 780-790 range. Below that would be surprising to me.

It's the plate discipline that is limiting him from being a high 800s OPS guy. It's very difficult to get over 850 or so when you only work a walk less than 5% of the time.

[LanceRinker]

I actually expect Jones to have one more peak season, this season, before coming back down to earth a little. I could see a .300/.340/.500 line from him with another 30+ homer season. He's 27 years old and I think he has an encore in him.

[SportsGuy]

I am expecting him to be in the 780-800 OPS range.

I think he has a dip in his slugging back towards his 2011 number.

[JeffLong]

I'm also a huge Adam Jones fan.

As far as performance in 2013, in the players forum, I said I expected a slight step back from last year, something like 285/330/485/815 with 28 HRs and I'll stand by that. I think he'll be pretty close to those numbers. Improving even further on 2012 and getting into the 860 range wouldn't shock me, but I think we have a pretty good idea of who Adam is as a hitter. I think absolute worst case would be him dropping all the way back down to a 780-790 range. Below that would be surprising to me.

It's the plate discipline that is limiting him from being a high 800s OPS guy. It's very difficult to get over 850 or so when you only work a walk less than 5% of the time.

I'm with you Mackus. I think that anything from .280/.325/.480 to .290/.340/.505 is realistic for him in 2013. I think he could have one more peak season as Lance suggests, but my gut tells me he's going to start leveling off.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Jones has played in all 38 games so far this year. He has hits in 33 of those games.

 

He has an 8 game hitting streak, with three 3 hits games in his last 4 games.

 

.321 batting average, 14 doubles, 5 homers, 25 rbi, .856 OPS.

 

The negative - 7 bb's vs. 34 k's.

[BSLChrisStoner]

CSN Baltimore: Kirby helps Jones clean up his defense
http://www.csnbaltim...ean-his-defense

[Mackus]

I hate to be mean, but I rarely find anything interesting in any of Rich Dubroff's pieces.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I hate to be mean, but I rarely find anything interesting in any of Rich Dubroff's pieces.

 

I think he does a good job reporting. He's not often asked to provide his own opinions.

[You Play to Win the Game]

A few of us were talking about Jones tonight in the game thread... I decided to look up his O-Swing since it was discussed earlier in the season as a possible improvement:

 

7 weeks into the season now, and his O-Swing % (Swings at pitches outside of the strike zone) is back up to 39.5%. A few weeks into the season, it was down near 35%, but it's climbed back up near his career norm (39.7%). He is who he is, which is a good player... but one that will decline very quickly once his power is gone. 

[SportsGuy]

Outside of Wieters, no one frustrates me more than Jones.

[bnickle]

I'm not a big fan of Jones in a lot of aspects.

[Mackus]

I loves me some Adam Jones.  I'm fully aware of his limitations and have no expectation of him becoming a patient hitter or an elite CF statistically (I do think he's good enough to not need to be moved to LF).  I am very interested to see how he performs down the stretch in a playoff run and in the playoffs the next time we get there.  He was brutal last year, and I can envision him being the type of guy that tries so hard to be a force in important games that it actually is a detriment to his peformance.

[BSLChrisStoner]

He can be somewhat frustrating in the sense, that it is not that hard to envision him being 'that much better.'

However, I think he should be enjoyed/respected for what he is - not hated for what we wish he was.

 

After injury concerns early in his career, he has played 149, 151, 162 games the last 3 years. He has played all 44 so far in '13.

 

In those 44 games, he has hits in all but 6 games.

 

Season: 185 ab's, .319 baa, 14 doubles, 6 homers, 30 rbi, 8 bb's, 38 k's, 8 steals, .846 OPS

 

.873 OPS in April, .803 OPS in May.  4 of his 6 full Months in '11 were over .800 as well.

 

His UZR/150 is crushing his fWAR right now, but that figures to improve some. Probably won't look 'good', but doesn't figure to look as bad as it does now.

 

The plate discipline doesn't figure to change - and while that it is disappointing (and limiting) - he remains one of the better offensive CF's in the game overall.

 

He generally plays hard,  best evidenced by how he slides into 2nd. I respect that as well.

 

Could he better? Sure. But he's pretty damn good.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I agree with Chris and Mackus... he's a player that you should be able to enjoy and root for, despite his short comings... because he's still a good ball player. I know he doesn't fit the mold of a guy who does everything right, or have a good approach, and his personality can be off putting, but I actually like it generally speakin. I like Jonesy, but have just come to grips with who he is. I do hope the Orioles are smart with him as he ages.

 

As for Jonesy's playoff "run" last year, it was frustrating, but again, I can respect the fact that he is obviously trying too hard. He often gets himself in a sort of a gumption trap. He's so eager, and has spunk, but gets in his own way sometimes because of it.

[SportsGuy]

Jones is good...but I feel if the league was smarter, he wouldn't be this good.

 

Pretty obvious how to pitch to him.

 

He is just not a guy I ever want up in a big spot.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Jones is good...but I feel if the league was smarter, he wouldn't be this good.
 
Pretty obvious how to pitch to him.
 
He is just not a guy I ever want up in a big spot.

I think the reason the O's have him that fat extension in such haste is because they anticipated continued improvement. That is what pisses me off about the situation, not Jonesy's fault though.

[JeffLong]

It’s pretty clear that very few players can impact the game in every facet of hitting like Jones can. He’s quietly on his way to a 30-30 season, something that he’s shown flashes of previously. Jones has always been a good baserunner, but hasn’t stolen bases at the pace he’s going at so far this season.

 

http://baltimorespor...fensive-season/

[You Play to Win the Game]

Good stuff. Macho and Crush have certainly over shadowed Jonesies own good year.

 

An interesting note, his defensive miscues the first 5-6 weeks of the season has caused his Fangraph's $$ Value to be at a pace where he would not live up to his salary this season (EDIT: It's back loaded actually, so this year he's earning $13.3M, which he is on pace to exceed). I think now that he's straightened that out, he should still over come that. Not that it particularly matters anyway, he's still getting paid what he's getting paid, but just something I'm keeping an eye on, as I wasn't a fan of the deal.

 

As far as room for improvement. Now that he's honed his base running, I think that's about the improvement we'll see from Jones. I've 100% given up any hope that he'll ever increase his OBP/BA spread. It's just not going to happen.

 

All that said, he's a very good player right now, and should be for several more years, so we ought to just enjoy it and not take it for granted.

[bnickle]

Should be the guy we dangle for an TOR starter if possible.