397 replies to this topic

[bnickle]

Putting aside the questions about his stuff this year vs last year I like how this guy grinds. He hasn't been close to his A game all year and here he sits with 3 wins, a 3.82 ERA, a 1.14 Whip.

[Adam Wolff]

Putting aside the questions about his stuff this year vs last year I like how this guy grinds. He hasn't been close to his A game all year and here he sits with 3 wins, a 3.82 ERA, a 1.14 Whip.

 

Good point. It feels like he's been bad this year, but that's a respectable ERA and very respectable whip. Here's to a good start tonight.

[JeffLong]

I took a look at why Jason Hammel might be struggling so far in 2013...

 

http://baltimorespor...h-jason-hammel/

 

PS - sorry for not sending it over to you Jeremy. This thing ended up taking me like 10 days to get in a good place, and I just wanted it out of my life once I finished it up. I'd be more than happy to add in some feedback if you have it.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Before anyone gets worked up over the use of the term 'struggling'...

 

Hammel is 5-1, and he is pitching overall as an effective starter.... what Jeff's article illustrates is how Hammel's peripherals are not as strong as they were last year. That while Hammel has remained an effective starter, he set the bar pretty high last year in his 20 starts...and that Hammel is 'struggling' a bit with matching the high expectations that came from that performance.

[SportsGuy]

His stuff clearly isn't as good.

[DJ MC]

Hammel is fourth in the AL in run support. The Orioles have scored almost seven runs per game in his starts.

 

That covers up a few issues.

[Matt]

Before anyone gets worked up over the use of the term 'struggling'...

 

Hammel is 5-1, and he is pitching overall as an effective starter.... what Jeff's article illustrates is how Hammel's peripherals are not as strong as they were last year. That while Hammel has remained an effective starter, he set the bar pretty high last year in his 20 starts...and that Hammel is 'struggling' a bit with matching the high expectations that came from that performance.

A pitcher isn't even responsible for 50% of a win. I don't think his record means anything other than he has gotten good run support like DJ MC has pointed out.

[BSLChrisStoner]

A pitcher isn't even responsible for 50% of a win. I don't think his record means anything other than he has gotten good run support like DJ MC has pointed out.

 

He's pitching like an AL average 3rd to 5th starter. Last year he showed the upside of a front end starter. We agree the O's need that guy back.

My previous comments were aimed at those who would look only at the 5-1 record, and believe there have been no issues from Hammel so far. I thought some people might see the term 'struggling' and not give Jeff's article a fair read.

 

Excellent work here from Jeff.

[Matt]

He's pitching like an AL average 3rd to 5th starter. Last year he showed the upside of a front end starter. We agree the O's need that guy back.

My previous comments were aimed at those who would look only at the 5-1 record, and believe there have been no issues from Hammel so far. I thought some people might see the term 'struggling' and not give Jeff's article a fair read.

 

Excellent work here from Jeff.

I agree it is great work. I enjoy reading the in depth analysis on here.

[JeffLong]

Hammel is fourth in the AL in run support. The Orioles have scored almost seven runs per game in his starts.

 

That covers up a few issues.

 

Yep. Just mentioned this on twitter but it bears repeating here:

 

Runs in Ws: 8,7,10,5,7

Runs in ND/L: 7, 3

 

Average runs/game in Hammel starts: 6.7

 

As DJ MC points out, that covers up A LOT of issues.

[JeffLong]

He's pitching like an AL average 3rd to 5th starter. Last year he showed the upside of a front end starter. We agree the O's need that guy back.

My previous comments were aimed at those who would look only at the 5-1 record, and believe there have been no issues from Hammel so far. I thought some people might see the term 'struggling' and not give Jeff's article a fair read.

 

Excellent work here from Jeff.

 

Thanks Chris, really appreciate it. I was talking to a few guys on twitter and they ended up saying "damnit, now I want to know why!" which is pretty much how I felt throughout the research & writing of the article.

[JeffLong]

His stuff clearly isn't as good.

 

Yeah I mean, from a "scouting" standpoint I agree with you. The only thing is that pitchf/x suggests there's not much difference between last year and this besides 1 mph or so, and an inch or two of break.

 

Just kind of weird to me.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Yeah I mean, from a "scouting" standpoint I agree with you. The only thing is that pitchf/x suggests there's not much difference between last year and this besides 1 mph or so, and an inch or two of break.

 

Just kind of weird to me.

 

But isn't an extra inch or two of break the difference between a hitter making solid contact and completely whiffing?

[SportsGuy]

But isn't an extra inch or two of break the difference between a hitter making solid contact and completely whiffing?

Exactly..or, it's a difference between missing and fouling it off.

Or maybe pitchfx is off.

Whatever it is, there is no doubt when you watch Hammel last year and Hammel this year that he isn't the same guy.

His lake of ks and missed bats back that up.

Now, his command is also worse this year.

I would like to see Hammel this year vs last year in a split screen. I still say he was more over the top last year.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I would like to see Hammel this year vs last year in a split screen. I still say he was more over the top last year.


 

 

I think this lends itself to recent comments from Palmer that Hammel was extremely strong last year at following through, but it has been a bit of an issue for him in '13.

 

I think that mechanical difference could explain why the velocity is down a tick, and visually there is not quite same level of finish.

 

That should be correctable though, and I would agree - you have to think they are looking at him side-by-side and working on things in the side sessions.

[SportsGuy]

I think this lends itself to recent comments from Palmer that Hammel was extremely strong last year at following through, but it has been a bit of an issue for him in '13.
 
I think that mechanical difference could explain why the velocity is down a tick, and visually there is not quite same level of finish.
 
That should be correctable though, and I would agree - you have to think they are looking at him side-by-side and working on things in the side sessions.

Here's the thing..are they doing that?

I mean, it has been over a month now and nothing looks different.

On twitter, I was trying to get Melewski to ask about it but he chalked it up to "it's early".

Now, there may have been something to that early on because of the lack of ST outings....but at this point, it's an issue.

Wen I first saw him this year, my immediate thought was he looked more 3/4 than over the top. Maybe I am just remembering him wrong but it would also help explain why he isn't getting the ball down more.

[Mackus]

I'm certain that if they think it's a mechanical thing, that they are addressing it.  There is nearly no chance that we've diagnosed the problem on a message board and yet the professionals haven't seen it and/or are choosing not to do anything about it.  Hammel's also not the type of guy to sit back and just be happy with mediocre results, he's very self-critical.  I can't imagine what he used to think about himself in Colorado and Tampa Bay!  If the difference is a change in his mechanics (not saying it is, though unless it's obvious I usually don't pick up on much mechanically), then I'm confident that they either have a reason for the change or are working on fixing the difference if it's unintended.

 

I am getting worried that the pitcher we saw last year was mostly a mirage.  Not that he got by on a fluke, but that he's unlikely to be able to repeat that level of performance.  It was completely different than anything he had done in his career, so if it disappears the next season, I think the question shouldn't be "what's wrong with him this year?" but instead should be "what the hell happened last year?"  I'm not convinced he can't still be that good, but I'm also not convinced that he can be.  I am confident that he will pitch as best as he's capable of, I don't have any concerns that his problems are from not working hard enough or not admitting the existence of a correctable issue.

[SportsGuy]

I'm certain that if they think it's a mechanical thing, that they are addressing it.  There is nearly no chance that we've diagnosed the problem on a message board and yet the professionals haven't seen it and/or are choosing not to do anything about it.  Hammel's also not the type of guy to sit back and just be happy with mediocre results, he's very self-critical.  I can't imagine what he used to think about himself in Colorado and Tampa Bay!  If the difference is a change in his mechanics (not saying it is, though unless it's obvious I usually don't pick up on much mechanically), then I'm confident that they either have a reason for the change or are working on fixing the difference if it's unintended.
 
I am getting worried that the pitcher we saw last year was mostly a mirage.  Not that he got by on a fluke, but that he's unlikely to be able to repeat that level of performance.  It was completely different than anything he had done in his career, so if it disappears the next season, I think the question shouldn't be "what's wrong with him this year?" but instead should be "what the hell happened last year?"  I'm not convinced he can't still be that good, but I'm also not convinced that he can be.  I am confident that he will pitch as best as he's capable of, I don't have any concerns that his problems are from not working hard enough or not admitting the existence of a correctable issue.

I think it would be foolish to assume he will get back what he had last year. At this point, you have to start questioning that.

The Orioles need last years Hammel in the worst way right now.

[Mackus]

I think it would be foolish to assume he will get back what he had last year. At this point, you have to start questioning that.

The Orioles need last years Hammel in the worse way right now.

 

I think he may be 22 and at AA right now.  Gausman is the only guy in the organization I envision having a good shot at being dominant late in this season (aside from a 4-5 game hot stretch, I'm talking consistently and routinely dominant).  I don't think any of our top 4 starters will pitch their way out of the rotation - I've seen enough from Tillman to think he's at least solid, Chen is reliable if not spectacular, and Gonzo I'm still confident in even though he's shown the least this year - but I don't see much better than a fringey #2/3 at best in any of them, and most are more like 3/4 type starters.  It's a ton to ask of a guy who's not even a full year into his professional career, but at this point I think Gausman may end up as the best starter on the team by the end of the season.

 

Maybe Hammel can get back to the nasty, hard-sinking stuff he had last season with the command needed to benefit from it, that's not impossible yet, but I think we're gonna have to get by with an average at best rotation and hit, field, and relieve really well.  Fortunately, I'm confident in those other areas of the team, and solid upside still does remain for the rotation, at least a bit.

[JeffLong]

But isn't an extra inch or two of break the difference between a hitter making solid contact and completely whiffing?

 

I think you're misinterpreting what I mean here. Pitchers have variance like this in their movement every year.

 

Obviously, to your point, less movement is easier to hit, but the difference isn't significant enough in my opinion to explain the change we've seen thus far.