397 replies to this topic

[LanceRinker]

So I briefly spoke with Jason Hammel's brother, Bill, on Twitter yesterday and he said Jason's goal is to win 20 games this year. Regardless of whether we, you, or all of us think that's a stretch - I think it's a really good goal to have considering how well you have to pitch in order to win 20 games.

The biggest common denominator in all of the 20 game winners since 2007 is that they all pitched 200 innings or more. Hammel's has hit 170+ innings the last two seasons but not 200 - I don't think it would be unreasonable to assume he could hit 200 innings if he performs better than average.

What do you all think would have to go right in order for any O's pitcher to win 20 games?


Source of Twitter convo: https://twitter.com/...531295608840193


Here's the full article on what it takes to win 20 games - http://burningdowntheyard.com/?p=1997

[Mackus]

I'll be pretty damn surprised if anyone wins 15 games. 20 is absolutely out of the question.

If Hammel is still in the rotation at the end of the year, I'd consider that a win. In fact, that's basically my goal for each of the starters. If more than one guy has something that resembles a good year, I'll be happy.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Thanks for passing this on Lance. I've also spoken to Bill, seems like a great guy.

I think it is great that Hammel has that as a personal goal. You want guys that want to be the best. When you set those personal expectations, it is easier to hold yourself accountable for results.

Personally, I'll be pleased if Hammel is anywhere around his '09 numbers: 10-8, 4.33 era, 176.2 ip, 203 hits, 17 hr’s, 42 bb’s, 133 k’s. He certainly will help the staff just by eating innings at a minimum.


Interesting info about all 20 game winners since '07 having pitched 200ip or more. Regarding what it would take for any O's pitcher to hit 20... you almost have to start with a bit of luck. Luck to stay healthy enough to make 35 starts, and provide those 200 ip. Luck to have the run support needed behind them.

The offense was league average last year. Davis, Reimold, and Betemit should be upgrades over Lee, Pie, and Vlad. If they are, and the offense avoids any real injuries to the everyday lineup, the lineup should produce.

Matusz, Hunter, Hammel, Britton, and Arrieta have each had 10+ win years in the Majors. Chen won 13 year last yr in the Japanese Central League. Wada won 16 in the JPL. I certainly would not be shocked to see Matusz, or Arrieta break through with 15 wins this year, but like Mackus - I would be surprised.

[bnickle]

Hammel has a chance to get to 20 wins








in his O's career.

[Can_of_corn]

As my father says "It's good to want things, builds character"

Of course he also says "Want in one hand **** in the other see which one fills up faster"

Quite the font of wisdom.


Wins is a stupid goal. His goal should be to pitch well every time out.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Wins is a stupid goal. His goal should be to pitch well every time out.

I think we all realize that pitchers only have so much / not much control with wins. However, the goal of 20 wins is basically the goal of pitching well consistently. I see it as semantics, not stupidity.

[Can_of_corn]

I think we all realize that pitchers only have so much / not much control with wins. However, the goal of 20 wins is basically the goal of pitching well consistently. I see it as semantics, not stupidity.

I disagree. Along with not being realistically something that a pitcher can control I find wanting wins specifically is selfish.

I think a more worthy goal would be "I want to give the team the best chance to win every time I take the ball."

[BSLChrisStoner]

I disagree. Along with not being realistically something that a pitcher can control I find wanting wins specifically is selfish.

I think a more worthy goal would be "I want to give the team the best chance to win every time I take the ball."

Interesting. I guess that is a fair point. I don't (or did not see the comments as selfish), but I think plenty would share that perspective. Your comment about a 'giving the team the best chance to win' being a more worthy goal is well stated. That would be the ideal quote from anyone.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Not happening.

The last two seasons there were 3 pitchers in the majors that got to 20 wins, the average ERA being about 2.50 among them. In 2009, there were no 20 game winners.

So it's obviously a near impossibility for Hammel to pitch well enough to win 20 games (an ERA around 2.50), and get lucky enough to win 20 games (consistent run support, favorable pitching match-ups, etc.).

I like the goal though. With everything I've read about the kind of guy Hammel is, I don't see this as a selfish goal at all. It's much more likely just a goal that pushes him to be the best he can every 5th day. It's like they say, you don't wake up everyday to go to work and suck. It's good to want to do well.

[LanceRinker]

Not happening.

The last two seasons there were 3 pitchers in the majors that got to 20 wins, the average ERA being about 2.50 among them. In 2009, there were no 20 game winners.

So it's obviously a near impossibility for Hammel to pitch well enough to win 20 games (an ERA around 2.50), and get lucky enough to win 20 games (consistent run support, favorable pitching match-ups, etc.).

I like the goal though. With everything I've read about the kind of guy Hammel is, I don't see this as a selfish goal at all. It's much more likely just a goal that pushes him to be the best he can every 5th day. It's like they say, you don't wake up everyday to go to work and suck. It's good to want to do well.

I like the goal too. Sure, W's are the most overrated stat to tell whether a pitcher is the best or not - but it's still one that most SP's refer to when talking about goals, which is basically the same thing as saying they want to pitch better than the other guy every time out.

[Mackus]

I disagree. Along with not being realistically something that a pitcher can control I find wanting wins specifically is selfish.

I think a more worthy goal would be "I want to give the team the best chance to win every time I take the ball."

Nah, I think Chris is right here.

Hammel isn't saying, "I want 20 wins even if my ERA is 5.25". He's basically saying he wants to pitch well nearly every time out, and the rest will take care of itself.

"20 wins", "hitting .300", "Gold Glove" - these are goals that players set that don't have the same meaning to them as they do to fans, particularly ones well versed in statistics. It's not that they don't know or don't care that these stats and awards are a bit outdated in terms of analytically determining how much positive influence a player has on a team's success. It's just that those are the typical benchmarks that have always been there, and they are synonymous with performing well, at least in terms of being a goal. It'll be a long time before you hear a player come out and say, "I wanna have 4.5 WAR this season".

[ravens8589]

Obviously 20 is out of the question. We haven't had a 15 game winner in a while so 20 is a bit of a stretch but i do like the confidence. This is something this team has lacked for quite some time. Maybe this acquisition wasn't so bad.

[PD24]

Megan Fox is my goal.

[LanceRinker]

Megan Fox is my goal.

What a coincidence...mine too.

[Adam Wolff]

I doubt Roy Halladay could win 20 games on this team, but it's nice that Hammel thinks big. What I would take from this is, not that Jason has goals that unattainable or that he's crazy, but rather he's hoping to pitch well in all of his starts this season, stay healthy, and have a solid offense supporting him.

Hey, I certainly wouldn't bet on it, but it would have to be the most unexpected 20 game winner..ever? At least in recent memory.

[Mike B]

I like his confidence, but question his ability to set realistic goals.

Let's see how he feels after watching what I believe will be a lineup that proves to be challenged at best.

[LanceRinker]

The guy did have a really solid spring for us. 17 k's in 17 innings and just 3 or 4 walks I believe. 3.18 ERA.

Not too shabby.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Momentum is the next day's starter. Want to see Hammel finish off the sweep, and continue the strong starting pitching we've see in the first two games.

[Chris B]

Momentum is the next day's starter. Want to see Hammel finish off the sweep, and continue the strong starting pitching we've see in the first two games.

Got what you asked for. 8 IP, 1 earned, no-hitter though 7.

You're on your way to your 20 win goal, Jason. 1 down, 19 to go.

[Can_of_corn]

Nice interview after the game:

http://www.masnsport... ... um=twitter