397 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

http://www.fangraphs... ... on-hammel/

[You Play to Win the Game]

I saw Bill James was expecting a big jump in his ERA.

if he is healthy, there is no reason not to expect him to be a borderline 1/2 starter with the way he pitched last year.

I agree. I'm anxious to see how he looks in the spring, and more importantly, how his knee is. Hopefully he can endure a healthy 2013. That he did what he did in 2012, all the while managing knee pain, is pretty remarkable. I did NOT expect to see him again after he re-aggrivate the knee in September.

[Mike B]

I saw Bill James was expecting a big jump in his ERA.

if he is healthy, there is no reason not to expect him to be a borderline 1/2 starter with the way he pitched last year.

I think this is reasonable. Hammel pitched in Colorado and also changed some of his pitches so using numbers to predict his future may be a little slanted. I think the concern with Hammel are the knee issues. Hopefully he gets them right but the injuries seems to crop up often for him.

[BSLChrisStoner]

RunsBattedOut: Praise or Pan: Will Hammel regress?
http://runsbattedout...-with-his-team/

[Kevin Ebert]

I look at what we can expect from Jason Hammel in 2013. Here's the link.

http://baltimorespor... ... on-hammel/

[SportsGuy]

Hammel is a game changer for this team.

By that I mean, he is a legit TOR guy. He really impressed me last year.

The one thing he didn't do was show an ability to go late in games...his pitch count got high quickly and he wasn't able to go 7+ often...so that keeps him out of the "ace" category.

But if he can stay healthy, I fully expect 200 innings and a 3-3.5 ERA this year.

[Kevin Ebert]

I agree that as long as he stays healthy, he's going to have a good year. Hopefully the knee problems are behind him after an offseason of rest.

One other thing I meant to mention in the post but didn't, he had the highest K% (22.9%) and swinging strike rate (9.9%) of his career last season. Both make me more bullish on him going forward. To me the ability to miss bats is the most imortant skill a pitcher can have.

[SportsGuy]

I agree that as long as he stays healthy, he's going to have a good year. Hopefully the knee problems are behind him after an offseason of rest.

One other thing I meant to mention in the post but didn't, he had the highest K% (22.9%) and swinging strike rate (9.9%) of his career last season. Both make me more bullish on him going forward. To me the ability to miss bats is the most imortant skill a pitcher can have.

Yea, I totally agree. His ability to miss bats is one of the reasons I am so high on him and why he impressed me so much last year.

He also saw his GB/FB ratio go up, which is another positive sign.

Would like to see him throw more strikes, as he was slightly below league average last year...Not a big deal but could help him go that extra batter or 2 a game if he can get his strike% from 62% up to the 63-64% range(which he has done in the past).

[BSLChrisStoner]

Like I said in the Wieters extension thread, if the O's and Hammel have had any discussion about an extension; that should come out here in the initial days of camp.

[The Epic]

i think it's funny, because the high K rates and swinging strike rates actually give me pause, as opposed to giving me increased hope (like it does for the rest of you). Are we ultimately comfortable in saying that this is repeatable? Are we pretty sure that he's been "repaired" to that end? Could it be the case that people will "catch up" to his sinker (that most hadn't really experienced before) and start getting better wood on it, and he'd get closer to his 2011 numbers than his 2012 numbers?

I personally believe that last year will be about the same as this year, but it's something to think about.

[SportsGuy]

i think it's funny, because the high K rates and swinging strike rates actually give me pause, as opposed to giving me increased hope (like it does for the rest of you). Are we ultimately comfortable in saying that this is repeatable? Are we pretty sure that he's been "repaired" to that end? Could it be the case that people will "catch up" to his sinker (that most hadn't really experienced before) and start getting better wood on it, and he'd get closer to his 2011 numbers than his 2012 numbers?

I personally believe that last year will be about the same as this year, but it's something to think about.

K rates and missed bats usually translate from year to year.

[The Epic]

K rates and missed bats usually translate from year to year.

I get that, but it's just me asking if the improved K-rate is more attributable to the mix of pitches, or the pitch itself.

[BSLChrisStoner]

i think it's funny, because the high K rates and swinging strike rates actually give me pause, as opposed to giving me increased hope (like it does for the rest of you). Are we ultimately comfortable in saying that this is repeatable? Are we pretty sure that he's been "repaired" to that end? Could it be the case that people will "catch up" to his sinker (that most hadn't really experienced before) and start getting better wood on it, and he'd get closer to his 2011 numbers than his 2012 numbers?

I personally believe that last year will be about the same as this year, but it's something to think about.

I do think SG's comment about increasing the strike % has merit. That would likely make it that much easier for him to go longer.

I think part of the reason he didn't have a lot of extended starts, was that the O's did try to avoid pushing him. If the knee is sound, he should be the 30 start, 175 inning guy he has been previously. That is one way the O's can be improved.

I don't think you see people catch up with 2 seam. His movement and power was special. Don't know if there really is catching-up with that. He is going to continue to eat up bats, and produce a lot of grounders. That is going to remain the key to his success, but having the ability to also garner swings and misses is huge as well.

[SportsGuy]

I get that, but it's just me asking if the improved K-rate is more attributable to the mix of pitches, or the pitch itself.

I think its everything...getting out of Colorado allowed the 2 seamer to be more effective...as well as his power curve.

He had shown flashes of being pretty good in the past...2 straight years of a fWAR of 3.9.

Before he got hurt, he showed no hit stuff almost every night and even when he was pitching with a bad knee, he was still better than most.

He really wowed me last year and that was totally unexpected. I thought he could be a contributor and looked at those 2 years in Colorado as a base for that thought BUT I never expected him to pitch the way he did.

[The Epic]

He really wowed me last year and that was totally unexpected. I thought he could be a contributor and looked at those 2 years in Colorado as a base for that thought BUT I never expected him to pitch the way he did.

I don't think anybody did. I still remember watching his first start, and going, "Holy crap, we might have struck gold here." There was no cautious optimism.

I sure hope you guys are right!

[BSLChrisStoner]

Washington Post: O's stumble upon a gem in Hammel
http://www.washingto...de3d_story.html

[BSLChrisStoner]

Hammel enters tonight's start vs. the Dodgers at:

 

2-1, 4.34 era, 5.34 xFIP, 18.2 ip, 15 hits, 3 hr's, 5 bb's, 9 k's, .702 OPS against, GB% 39%

 

4th start of the year, the O's need their ace to pitch like it tonight.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Hammel's .79 GB/FB ratio this season is much more in line with what it was in Colorado, than his 1.14 ratio here in Baltimore last season.

 

He's thrown his 2-seamer 29.1% so far this season at an average velocity of 92.4 MPH so far this season. Last season to this point, he had thrown his 2-seamer 42.9% of the time at an average velocity of 93.3 MPH. 

 

So he's thrown the 2-seamer about 14% less, and at almost a MPH slower. The spin rate has also decreased quite a bit on that pitch, according to Pitch F/X data. 

 

It's a small sample size, but his bread and butter has not been that effective quite yet. We all know his limited work in the spring, as well as the knee issues last year, so it shouldn't come as that much of a surprise, but hopefully he's just building up to getting back to where he was, because his 2-seamer needs to come back into the fold and be as good as it was last year.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Coming into tonight...

 

Hammel's average 4 seam FF had a velocity of 92.5... 2 seam 92.3....

 

Last year... 4 seam 93.3, 2 seam 93.5.

[SportsGuy]

Coming into tonight...
 
Hammel's average 4 seam FF had a velocity of 92.5... 2 seam 92.3....
 
Last year... 4 seam 93.3, 2 seam 93.5.

Which also hurts movement.

Something isn't right, that's for sure. Mechanics or arm injury..don't know which but they need to figure it out.

He also could be lacking arm strength due to ST strategy.