294 replies to this topic

[Matt_P]

How are you defining worth?

 

Positional adjustment?  I don't think we have any handle on that because being a 7th inning guy or an 8th inning guy is not as linnear to the closer as a 2B to SS is.  You are going to have a lot of problems with under and over rating players with that approach, I assume.

 

You'd think, right? I'm seeing signs that it may be more linear then I would have thought. But I'm not certain by any stretch of the imagination and I'd have a hard time defending any method I suggested.

[Jon Shepherd]

You'd think, right? I'm seeing signs that it may be more linear then I would have thought. But I'm not certain by any stretch of the imagination and I'd have a hard time defending any method I suggested.

 

And you compared that against leverage index?

 

The important thing to consider with this is to have pitcher who experience time in each position and normalize that to the leverage index...then a positional adjustment might be considered because the concept is that there is something we are not measuring that can not be accounted for beyond those two.

 

Additionally, you have the concept of baseline.  A reliever baseline is pretty high...for good reason.

[Matt_P]

The important thing to consider with this is to have pitcher who experience time in each position and normalize that to the leverage index...then a positional adjustment might be considered because the concept is that there is something we are not measuring that can not be accounted for beyond those two.

 

I don't think that would work. You'd have such a small sample size that all you'd be seeing is probably noise. After all, even a starting pitcher can have a good season one year and a bad season the other. How do you know that the change is because he's become a reliever?

 

Best to stay as far away from performance as possible.

 

Think of it this way. Suppose that the Braves have Andrelton Simmons as their shortstop. Suppose the Orioles put Matt Wieters at shortstop (the pitchers are not going to be happy). Simmons is going to be worth +20 fielding over the whole season. Matt Wieters is going to be worth -40 fielding over the whole season. But if they both play 150 games, they're both going to get a 7.5 run position adjustment.

 

In other words, for the position adjustment, performance is directly irrelevant. It is indirectly relevant because a team won't continue the Matt Wieters at shortstop experiment for very long and therefore he won't get that adjustment for very long. But then again, a closer that fails to make saves could get demoted reasonably quickly. Or a team could keep Miguel Cabrera at third and Rodney as closer for the whole season.

[Jon Shepherd]

I don't think that would work. You'd have such a small sample size that all you'd be seeing is probably noise. After all, even a starting pitcher can have a good season one year and a bad season the other. How do you know that the change is because he's become a reliever?

 

Best to stay as far away from performance as possible.

 

Think of it this way. Suppose that the Braves have Andrelton Simmons as their shortstop. Suppose the Orioles put Matt Wieters at shortstop (the pitchers are not going to be happy). Simmons is going to be worth +20 fielding over the whole season. Matt Wieters is going to be worth -40 fielding over the whole season. But if they both play 150 games, they're both going to get a 7.5 run position adjustment.

 

In other words, for the position adjustment, performance is directly irrelevant. It is indirectly relevant because a team won't continue the Matt Wieters at shortstop experiment for very long and therefore he won't get that adjustment for very long. But then again, a closer that fails to make saves could get demoted reasonably quickly. Or a team could keep Miguel Cabrera at third and Rodney as closer for the whole season.

 

I'm not sure that I follow.  The position adjustment is based on population based performance.  How can you figure out a positional adjustment without direct performance measurements?

[Matt_P]

I'm not sure that I follow.  The position adjustment is based on population based performance.  How can you figure out a positional adjustment without direct performance measurements?

 

You're right. I misunderstood how the player positional adjustment is calculated.

 

The way you adjust it is by focusing on outcomes. A starter can have a larger role adjustment then a reliever if one can create a model that gives credit for the fact that he starts games. And then given that you'd probably use number of innings thrown as your baseline (compared to number of innings catching) the fact that an average starter throws more innings then your average reliever would further work to his advantage.

[Matt]

I'd say the combination of his recent performances and the performances of the rest of the bullpen he's the only one I do trust at this point. I was ready to move on from him a few months ago too.

[Oriole85]

I'd say the combination of his recent performances and the performances of the rest of the bullpen he's the only one I do trust at this point. I was ready to move on from him a few months ago too.

It's funny how this stuff works, I feel simiarily although I was never too low on Jim Johnson. That said, if Jim Johnson blows a few saves soon, it will be back to the "ABJJ" (Anyone but Jim Johnson). I already said, we need strong start and some offensive output. It's hard to trust this bullpen right now.

[Matt_P]

Orioles Relievers in September/October

 

ERA=2.78

FIP=2.63

xFIP=2.03

Runs Allowed = 10

W=2

L=3

Sv=2

HLD=2

BS=1

 

Yankees Relievers in Sept/Oct

 

ERA = 6.92

FIP = 5.36

xFIP = 3.95

W = 5

L = 3

SV = 4

HLD = 3

BS = 5

 

It's unbelievable really.

[Oriole85]

Orioles Relievers in September/October

 

ERA=2.78

FIP=2.63

xFIP=2.03

Runs Allowed = 10

W=2

L=3

Sv=2

HLD=2

BS=1

 

Yankees Relievers in Sept/Oct

 

ERA = 6.92

FIP = 5.36

xFIP = 3.95

W = 5

L = 3

SV = 4

HLD = 3

BS = 5

 

It's unbelievable really.

Wow the difference in the W's/L's. Rivera's gotten lucky this year that as many of his BS have turned into wins. Even last night in a win, he wasn't dominant.

[Matt_P]

He's only blown 2 of the 4 saves (sorry that should be 4 not 5). Both of them were games where his team was leading by one.

 

Basically, when we've had a lead, the bullpen has blown it half the time. When we've been behind, the bullpen has done great. Good ERA and terrible results.

[Oriole85]

He's only blown 2 of the 4 saves (sorry that should be 4 not 5). Both of them were games where his team was leading by one.

 

Basically, when we've had a lead, the bullpen has blown it half the time. When we've been behind, the bullpen has done great. Good ERA and terrible results.

I'm talking about this year as a whole, he's had seven total. I believe they've won 5 of the 7. In contrast, Jim Johnson has lost 8 of the 9 IIRC.

[You Play to Win the Game]

If Jim Johnson isn't the closer for the Diamondbacks series, the O's are in the 2nd WC spot today. 

[Oriole85]

If Jim Johnson isn't the closer for the Diamondbacks series, the O's are in the 2nd WC spot today. 

He wasn't in the first game ftr. So yeah if you want to just change the results of those last two games and all other 142 games played thus far, don't change at all then sure. The final game, the offense did have multiple chances to get the job done and they didn't. I would still say that's primarily Johnson's fault for not getting the job done but he's not solely blameless here IMO. He's blown nine games, of which they've lost eight -- that statistically is worse than it should be. So you could just say if the offense had picked up for them on two of those occasions, we'd be in the 2nd WC spot. Like I said earlier in contrast, Rivera has blown seven saves, and the Yankees are turning them into wins at a rate they shouldn't. The media might not want to take down Mo, but the Yankees would be in a much different spot if it were 5 of 7 losses instead of wins.

[mweb08]

If Jim Johnson isn't the closer for the Diamondbacks series, the O's are in the 2nd WC spot today. 

 

Also if the O's brought back Koji, they'd be in a playoff spot right now.

 

I love Koji, but it's frustrating to see him dominate this much and stay healthy with the Sox. I really wish he was doing this with the O's. The guys K/BB ratio is 93/9 and he has a 1.08 ERA. He's 7th in baseball in WPA (2nd among pitchers).

[mweb08]

He wasn't in the first game ftr. So yeah if you want to just change the results of those last two games and all other 142 games played thus far, don't change at all then sure. The final game, the offense did have multiple chances to get the job done and they didn't. I would still say that's primarily Johnson's fault for not getting the job done but he's not solely blameless here IMO. He's blown nine games, of which they've lost eight -- that statistically is worse than it should be. So you could just say if the offense had picked up for them on two of those occasions, we'd be in the 2nd WC spot. Like I said earlier in contrast, Rivera has blown seven saves, and the Yankees are turning them into wins at a rate they shouldn't. The media might not want to take down Mo, but the Yankees would be in a much different spot if it were 5 of 7 losses instead of wins.

 

Part of the reason a higher % of his blown saves have turned to losses is because he's not just allowing teams to tie the game, but also to take the lead.

[Oriole85]

Part of the reason a higher % of his blown saves have turned to losses is because he's not just allowing teams to tie the game, but also to take the lead.

Just looked it up, you're right, he's had five where he's given up the lead by my count. In three of those games, they were the home team, only one of which was a significant lead, that you wouldn't expect the offense to comeback. So the O's have one win in his four games, where he didn't give up the lead -- not the biggest sample size. It still shouldn't be as bad as it is.

[Oriole85]

Also if the O's brought back Koji, they'd be in a playoff spot right now.

 

I love Koji, but it's frustrating to see him dominate this much and stay healthy with the Sox. I really wish he was doing this with the O's. The guys K/BB ratio is 93/9 and he has a 1.08 ERA. He's 7th in baseball in WPA (2nd among pitchers).

It be nice and I do think Koji would perform similarily here, not sure where you stood on the whole trade or keep Jim Johnson debate. I'll be the first to say, I didn't mind bringing him back, I didn't see this coming.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Yeah, I get it O85, I do... and it really isn't accurate or fair to pin it on JJ, because there's certainly no guarantee that Tommy Hunter or Darren O'Day, both of which have had sporadic struggles this year, would have closed out those games in Arizona either. Neither are ace closer's, and neither is Johnson. Koji is an ace closer, so Michael's point is more valid than mine. End of the day, it's a "fan" thing to do to blame JJ if we don't make the postseason, and I probably will... but I fully acknowledge that's more emotional than it is rational.

[Oriole85]

Yeah, I get it O85, I do... and it really isn't accurate or fair to pin it on JJ, because there's certainly no guarantee that Tommy Hunter or Darren O'Day, both of which have had sporadic struggles this year, would have closed out those games in Arizona either. Neither are ace closer's, and neither is Johnson. Koji is an ace closer, so Michael's point is more valid than mine. End of the day, it's a "fan" thing to do to blame JJ if we don't make the postseason, and I probably will... but I fully acknowledge that's more emotional than it is rational.

I didn't realize just how many of those were leads lost. It does change my perspective somewhat.

 

I do feel like you've been a bit unfair putting as much blame on Jim Johnson as you have (which you acknowledged). Although, I totally get as a fan how frustrating it is given his role. You have to expect more from your closer. I think it's almost like a placekicker, you don't expect the QB (starting pitcher) to be perfect but you expect the 9th inning guy to get through as seemlessly as possible In terms of Tommy Hunter or O'Day, I like to think either could've done better -- the bar isn't that high.

 

One thing I do like about Tommy Hunter is him being a quasi-relief ace, being able to pitch two shutdown innings. Could he do that in the 8th and 9th, sure but it's likely. I think when he's at the top of his game, he has that ability to make it a 7 inning game. Although, the last week has been bad in this regard.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Part of the issue with this, too, is that JJ is a victim of his own dominance. He has set the bar pretty high, and the expectations are there with it. He hasn't been utterly horrendous, but relative to what we expected, it's been pretty bad. That really isn't fair to him either. I get all of that. I think the biggest "x" factor for me as well is that he deserves a substantial amount of blame for us losing the ALDS last season, and that still stings.