346 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

Arrieta takes the mound tomorrow.

He is 2-5, with a 4.87 era (4.01 FIP). In 61 ip, he has allowed 62 hits, 9 hr’s, 16 bb’s, with 53 k’s. His OPS against is .729, and his G/F is 0.90.

This will be Arrieta’s 6th start of May. His previous 5 have been:
5/2 @ NYY: 8 ip, 5 hits, 0 er, 0 bb’s, 9 k’s
5/8 vs. TEX: 6.1 ip, 9 hits, 6 er, 3 hr’s, 1 bb, 3 k’s
5/13 vs. TB: 3.2 ip, 10 hits, 7 er, 2 bb’s, 6 k’s
5/18 @ DC: 7 ip, 6 hits, 1 er, 1 hr, 1 bb, 9 k’s
5/23 vs. BOS: 5.2 ip, 8 hits, 4 er, 1 hr, 3 bb’s, 2 k’s

The starts vs. the Yankees, and Nationals were awesome. His most recent start vs. Boston was livable. His starts vs. the Rangers and Rays were poor. We continue to talk about wanting to see positive consistency from him. To me, when you see how high his ceiling is in those starts vs. NY and DC; you feel like he should be capable of a quality start nearly every time out. However, does anyone have concrete opinions on the results we will see from Arrieta Tuesday? This will be his first start vs. Toronto this year.

It's his inconsistencies that make most believe he is a 3/4 starter....or even a closer.

[JeremyStrain]

I think he's our version of Daniel Bard. He could be a 3/4 starter and give you a 4.00 ERA and win 12 games, OR he could be a lights out all-star level closer.

[Mackus]

We really need Jake to have a good start tonight.

[fan4life]

We really need Jake to have a good start tonight.

That would be a timely good start. For me, we need to win this game either due to good SP/RP or an offense overcoming less then stellar SP. We need to find ways to win games when one part of our attack isn't running well. That would give us some time to continue to shape the lineup / SP rotation while not loosing any/much ground. We've been fortunate to this point that everyone below us isn't playing great while we're skidding a bit.

[Adam Wolff]

We really need Jake to have a good start tonight.

Yep, needs to be our stopper. I'm optimistic he can get it done for us. I feel like he's been much better than his statistics reflect.

[bnickle]

I have very little confidence when Arrieta takes the mound right now. I hope that he can give us one of those starts like we saw Opening Day or at Yankee Stadium or Nats Park but I expect the worst. He has 4 Quality Starts in 11 starts to this point. Not good at all, it's just that all of the quality starts were quality plus starts and I think that fools some people a little bit. He has been way too inconsistent and relatively poor overall to this point. Hypothetically, I would not be opposed to sending him to the minors if Britton were ready to go and I would at least consider replacing him with Steve Johnson until Britton is ready to go.

[JeremyStrain]

I have very little confidence when Arrieta takes the mound right now. I hope that he can give us one of those starts like we saw Opening Day or at Yankee Stadium or Nats Park but I expect the worst. He has 4 Quality Starts in 11 starts to this point. Not good at all, it's just that all of the quality starts were quality plus starts and I think that fools some people a little bit. He has been way too inconsistent and relatively poor overall to this point. Hypothetically, I would not be opposed to sending him to the minors if Britton were ready to go and I would at least consider replacing him with Steve Johnson until Britton is ready to go.

Steve Johnson is NO ML starter. His BEST case is he has a little run like Bergy did, but his future is in the pen, and I think he could stick in the majors there.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I have very little confidence when Arrieta takes the mound right now. I hope that he can give us one of those starts like we saw Opening Day or at Yankee Stadium or Nats Park but I expect the worst. He has 4 Quality Starts in 11 starts to this point. Not good at all, it's just that all of the quality starts were quality plus starts and I think that fools some people a little bit. He has been way too inconsistent and relatively poor overall to this point. Hypothetically, I would not be opposed to sending him to the minors if Britton were ready to go and I would at least consider replacing him with Steve Johnson until Britton is ready to go.

In the game thread, SG made the point that, "Jake has now made 11 starts...he has given up 4 or more ER in 7 of those starts."

My counter was, "Jake has now made 11 starts... he has gone at-least 5.2 ip, and given up 4 er or less in 7 of them. Seems comparable to most back of the rotation starters... except they would not flash his excellence."

That all said, tonight was horrible. After Lawrie and Cooper led off the 3rd with singles, Davis attempted a bunt. Arrieta fielded it, and threw it past Andino at 1st. This allowed Lawrie to score, made all the worse, because there was no play to be had on Davis. In the 4th, he walked Arencibia, giving the Jays 2 on with 1 out. In the 5th, Arrieta walked Bautitsa to lead off the inning, after Arrieta had been up in the count 0-2. That was followed by a walk to Encarnacion.

Just another poor start from Arrieta which drives you mad. Even when he is bad, he flashes his stuff. The inconsistency from batter to batter, and inning to inning is tough to explain. I still want him to stay in the rotation though, as I see nobody internally to push him out. His ceiling (as shown in the starts vs. NY, and DC this month) is too high to take out of the rotation, no matter how annoying he can be start to start. If he becomes the 5th starter, that is disappointing, but not many teams will have a 5th with his ability. You have to keep putting him out there hoping he can lock into some positive consistency. 4.1 ip, 6 hits, 6 er, 3 bb's, 5 k's. He threw 96 pitches, 56 for strikes. Toronto hitters had 5 grounders against him.

[SportsGuy]

Chris, those starts don't show his ceiling..his ceiling isn't a sub 2 ERA.

What they show is he is capable of being really good when he is on. But he is too inconsistent to be on enough times to make you think he is more than a BOR starter.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Chris, those starts don't show his ceiling..his ceiling isn't a sub 2 ERA.

What they show is he is capable of being really good when he is on. But he is too inconsistent to be on enough times to make you think he is more than a BOR starter.

Of course his ceiling is not a sub 2 era. I also agree with your conclusion, that he is currently too inconsistent to be considered more than a back of the rotation starter.

I think what those high quality starts show though, is that he has the capability of being excellent. That excellence is what I am referring to when I say his ceiling. I don't think most back of the rotation starters have that capability.

[Coker]

In his last 5 starts, Arrieta is 0-4 with an 8.00 ERA

[SportsGuy]

Chris, those starts don't show his ceiling..his ceiling isn't a sub 2 ERA.

What they show is he is capable of being really good when he is on. But he is too inconsistent to be on enough times to make you think he is more than a BOR starter.

Of course his ceiling is not a sub 2 era. I also agree with your conclusion, that he is currently too inconsistent to be considered more than a back of the rotation starter.

I think what those high quality starts show though, is that he has the capability of being excellent. That excellence is what I am referring to when I say his ceiling. I don't think most back of the rotation starters have that capability.

Depends on the age of those starters.

There are plenty of younger pitchers that are BOR starters right now with high ceilings who can have starts like that. But the established BOR starters, like say a Marquis, aren't going to be that explosive and dominant.

[bnickle]

Arrieta is a guy ideally that you put in the pen and he becomes a good, possibly dominant late inning guy. I'm just not seeing him working out as anything but a bottom of the rotation guy if he keeps starting. I don;t know enough about Steve Johnson to say whether he should take his spot in the rotation but I know if Britton and Piniero were both healthy I'd have them both in the rotation ahead of Jake right now. With Britton on the verge of return and two days off in the next week it would not surprise me if they skip Arrieta next time through.

[Mackus]

I'd give Jake most if not all of this season in the rotation to try and figure things out to see if he can be reliable enough to be a solid mid-rotation guy. Its really frustrating watching him right now, but I think he can turn things around. Although obviously if he continues to get shelled like this for more than his next couple starts, you have to make a pre-emptive move to keep the team competitive.

What we really need is Britton to come back, replace Hunter, and pitch decently. Not great, but better than Arrieta and Hunter is pitching right now. We can afford to have one guy in the rotation struggling to find their groove (especially if it's someone with some upside like Jake) but not two guys. Once Britton is back in the rotation, I don't ever want to see Hunter start for this team again outside of a spot-start or double header duty in a pinch.

After this year, I would likely try to add another starter through free agency or trade, which would then push Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton into a competition for two spots (with Bundy waiting in the wings to make it even more competitive). This is assuming Hammel and Chen both continue to pitch well enough to have their names written in ink for next year. If they don't, then it's a 4-man race for 3 spots or whatever the case may be.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Beyond the Box Score: Baseball's Most Valuable Players through May
http://www.beyondthe...d-may#storyjump


"The Orioles' Arrieta sports a bad ERA (5.37) that also isn't a great reflection of his performance based on peripherals. Arrieta looks like the Orioles' worst starter based on traditional statistics, but his xFIP- (85) and SIERA (3.57) grade him as an above average pitcher."

[DJ MC]

So Arrieta gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings, with three strikeouts and four walks, against the Rays today. Whether or not the Orioles should take him out of the rotation, does anyone think that we're nearing the end of Arrieta in the rotation for 2012--either in the bullpen or down to Norfolk?

[BobPhelan]

If we had someone to replace him I'd say give him a chance to work things out at AAA. Maybe if Tillman keeps it up you can do that.

How about trade JJ at the deadline and move Jake into the bullpen with the thought to eventually close. Strop can do that until the mean time. No way that happens, at least this year, but it may not be the worst idea in the world.

[bnickle]

I honestly think a lot of his issue is nerves. He seems to not be able to relax and perform to the best his ability once things get a little hairy. He's pretty high strung out there anyway. He'll cruise for awhile but as soon as he gets himself in a little bit of a jam he just can't seem to find a way to calm himself and execute.

It's another reason why I'm very much against him in a closer or fireman's role. At least at this point in his career.

[JeffLong]

It's actually interesting... his K/BB is up by .7 this month.

Batting Average Against has moved from .217 in Apr/Mar to .303 in May, BABIP rising from .235 to .368.

FIP and xFIP tend to agree. Apr/Mar: 4.15 FIP, 3.93 xFIP versus May: 3.80 FIP, 3.24 xFIP.


I think he's been unlucky this month, but I also think he was exceptionally lucky in Apr/Mar. He's not this bad, and he isn't that good either.

[Larry Sheets]

Arrieta goes tonight, Is this his last start if he struggles?