346 replies to this topic

[bnickle]

Arrieta should already be penciled in to the AAA rotation and more time working with Peterson.

I'm still of the belief that he is not an ideal guy to transition to the pen. I think if he makes it it's still as likely, if not more likely, to be as a SP vs a RP. Get him down to AAA and work on mechanics and hope he clears his mental hurdle as well. If he does I still think he could be a solid starter.

[BSLChrisStoner]

CSN Baltimore: Orioles beat Blue Jays 3-1 behind Arrieta's scoreless outing
http://www.csnbaltim...coreless-outing

“Today was the best sequence I've had from start to finish in a long time," Arrieta said. "Not just this spring, but since I can remember.”

"My confidence level is really high," Arrieta said. "With my stuff, it is hard not to have a high level of confidence. Sometimes over-thinking in certain situations happens, but you have to realize the more thoughts that get in your head, you second-guess yourself. Today was a good step in the right direction."

Showalter wasn’t necessarily agreeing with Arrieta’s assessment.

“I don't mean to be picky, but that's the type of outing, carrying that kind of stuff that he should go deep. I think he had seven three-ball counts. He only had eight of 20 first-ball strikes, so there's room for improvement. That'll tell you how good his stuff was today because he got by with it," Showalter said.

[RichardZ]

"My confidence level is really high," Arrieta said. "With my stuff, it is hard not to have a high level of confidence. Sometimes over-thinking in certain situations happens, but you have to realize the more thoughts that get in your head, you second-guess yourself. Today was a good step in the right direction."

Did he really say that?

He kind of sounds like a guy with a million dollar arm and a ten cent head.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Pretty poopy start from Arrieta. Has he ever been able to locate his fastball consistently?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Pretty poopy start from Arrieta. Has he ever been able to locate his fastball consistently?

 

Understandably a fair amount of Jake discussion in the game thread yesterday.

 

I said, "I love Jake's stuff. I find him so frustrating, because I believe in his ability. But even when he is going well, he can quickly lose it. That's why I thought all Winter they were going to commit to converting him to the pen. I was really surprised during ST when he was given another opportunity to start.

Then I thought when he was starting, that he would go to AAA, and be given a chance to get extended work with Peterson."

 

Bnickle stated, "Arrieta is night and day different in pressure and non pressure situations. I mean you can literally see how much more relaxed he is when there is no pressure. It's further proof why people should be leery about wanting him to go to the pen in pitch in high leverage situations. There is zero reason to believe he can handle it."

 

 

We then discussed if Arrieta goes back to Norfolk, do you want him starting or being used from the pen.

 

Bnickle, "Start. I still believe if Arrieta is going to make it in MLB it'll more likely be as a SP. As Plamer said last inning, he has to find a way to relax on the mound. That's by far his biggest problem. It's not stuff, it's not as much mechanics. It's nerves. I'm just not sure how Peterson or anyone else cures that though."

 

I replied, "I thought the point you made about Arrieta pitching in high leverage situations proving to be difficult, had some merit.... but you could argue that pitching just 1 inning at a time, maxing out... he would be able to just overwhelm hitters."

 

Bnickle, "It's possible. I just think his biggest problem is something that if solved will still allow him to be a good SP. Or looking at it the other way, his biggest problem, nerves, is something that moving to the BP won;t solve and make him a more effective pitcher.

 

I'm sure there will be a point, and we might be getting close to it, where the O's say" this starting thing isn't working, lets see what he can do as a RP".  Who knows maybe he can somehow embrace the role and get over his issues. You never say never. I'll say this, if Arrieta was at any point a big piece in a potnetial trade whether it be Headley or someone else, I'm disappointed if DD held back on pulling the trigger in anyway because of Jake."

[Can_of_corn]

Jake was classic Jake yesterday.  Folks can talk about his peripherals and how unlucky he is but the results are consistent with him.

 

He needs to go to Norfolk, dump some of his six pitches and concentrate on commanding three of them.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Jake was classic Jake yesterday.  Folks can talk about his peripherals and how unlucky he is but the results are consistent with him.

 

He needs to go to Norfolk, dump some of his six pitches and concentrate on commanding three of them.

 

Would you rather him continue to start at AAA, or go to the pen?

[JeremyStrain]

Jake was classic Jake yesterday.  Folks can talk about his peripherals and how unlucky he is but the results are consistent with him.
 
He needs to go to Norfolk, dump some of his six pitches and concentrate on commanding three of them.

 
Would you rather him continue to start at AAA, or go to the pen?

Pen. He is typically great his first inning or two, its the second time through the lineup he gets crushed by.

[Can_of_corn]

Would you rather him continue to start at AAA, or go to the pen?

Starters are  more valuable then relievers and Jake has done nothing to show me that his stuff plays up better in the pen.

 

I think his stuff is good enough that if he goes with three pitches, lets say 4S/Curve/Change he can be a succesfull starter. 

 

As long as he is also throwing a 2S that he can't command, an inconsistent slider and a cutter I con't see him ever establishing himself at the MLB level in any capacity.

[JeremyStrain]

Would you rather him continue to start at AAA, or go to the pen?

Starters are  more valuable then relievers and Jake has done nothing to show me that his stuff plays up better in the pen.
 
I think his stuff is good enough that if he goes with three pitches, lets say 4S/Curve/Change he can be a succesfull starter. 
 
As long as he is also throwing a 2S that he can't command, an inconsistent slider and a cutter I con't see him ever establishing himself at the MLB level in any capacity.

He can't command any of his pitchess well enough to start though. There is a misconception with that starter is more valuable than a rp. A replacement level starter (which he is) isn't as valuable as a good rp. Not that its a sure thing he'd be a good rp but he can't be much worse than he is as a sp and I'd bet money he's better than ayala at minimum in the pen. With just his 3 best pitches he could be elite out of the pen...just don't know til you try.

[Can_of_corn]

He can't command any of his pitchess well enough to start though. There is a misconception with that starter is more valuable than a rp. A replacement level starter (which he is) isn't as valuable as a good rp. Not that its a sure thing he'd be a good rp but he can't be much worse than he is as a sp and I'd bet money he's better than ayala at minimum in the pen. With just his 3 best pitches he could be elite out of the pen...just don't know til you try.

His lack of command would be why I was sending him to AAA with orders to ditch three of his six pitches.  Hopefully by concentrating on just three of them he could learn to command them at an acceptable level.

 

Honestly if he can't command a fastball I don't want him in my starting rotation or my bullpen.

[Russ]

He can't command any of his pitchess well enough to start though. There is a misconception with that starter is more valuable than a rp. A replacement level starter (which he is) isn't as valuable as a good rp. Not that its a sure thing he'd be a good rp but he can't be much worse than he is as a sp and I'd bet money he's better than ayala at minimum in the pen. With just his 3 best pitches he could be elite out of the pen...just don't know til you try.

His lack of command would be why I was sending him to AAA with orders to ditch three of his six pitches. Hopefully by concentrating on just three of them he could learn to command them at an acceptable level. Honestly if he can't command a fastball I don't want him in my starting rotation or my bullpen.

Agreed. There's nothing more frustrating than a reliever who can't throw the ball over the plate.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Understandably a fair amount of Jake discussion in the game thread yesterday.

 

I said, "I love Jake's stuff. I find him so frustrating, because I believe in his ability. But even when he is going well, he can quickly lose it. That's why I thought all Winter they were going to commit to converting him to the pen. I was really surprised during ST when he was given another opportunity to start.

Then I thought when he was starting, that he would go to AAA, and be given a chance to get extended work with Peterson."

 

Bnickle stated, "Arrieta is night and day different in pressure and non pressure situations. I mean you can literally see how much more relaxed he is when there is no pressure. It's further proof why people should be leery about wanting him to go to the pen in pitch in high leverage situations. There is zero reason to believe he can handle it."

 

 

We then discussed if Arrieta goes back to Norfolk, do you want him starting or being used from the pen.

 

Bnickle, "Start. I still believe if Arrieta is going to make it in MLB it'll more likely be as a SP. As Plamer said last inning, he has to find a way to relax on the mound. That's by far his biggest problem. It's not stuff, it's not as much mechanics. It's nerves. I'm just not sure how Peterson or anyone else cures that though."

 

I replied, "I thought the point you made about Arrieta pitching in high leverage situations proving to be difficult, had some merit.... but you could argue that pitching just 1 inning at a time, maxing out... he would be able to just overwhelm hitters."

 

Bnickle, "It's possible. I just think his biggest problem is something that if solved will still allow him to be a good SP. Or looking at it the other way, his biggest problem, nerves, is something that moving to the BP won;t solve and make him a more effective pitcher.

 

I'm sure there will be a point, and we might be getting close to it, where the O's say" this starting thing isn't working, lets see what he can do as a RP".  Who knows maybe he can somehow embrace the role and get over his issues. You never say never. I'll say this, if Arrieta was at any point a big piece in a potnetial trade whether it be Headley or someone else, I'm disappointed if DD held back on pulling the trigger in anyway because of Jake."

 

Thanks for organizing all the relevant comments and posting them here. Checking out baseball reference there's some evidence to back up the claim that high pressure situations are a problem for Jake.

 

OPS against in High Leverage: .892

OPS against in Low Leverage: .758 (which isn't great either BTW).

 

What's frustrating about Jake is that the talent is there, but there isn't even a role we could insert him in where his issues wouldn't show up.

[JeremyStrain]

Made this in the other thread, meant to put it here.

 

I've always championed that Jake would be a better RP than SP, and the comeback I've seen most is that people think it's all mental and he can't handle pressure. I finally got a chance to really dig into his numbers tonight and I still think I'm right.

 

First, most of the damage done against Jake happens the second time through the order. It's hard to read SP finite stats such as high leverage numbers because as a SP they rarely face high leverage situations unless they are already in trouble and getting hit around. Looking at their numbers facing batters for the 3rd or 4th time through the lineup is only half the story since in order to face a batter for a 3rd/4th time, a pitcher has to be doing well up to that point, and now you are facing fatigue as a possibility too. All of things will muddle the picture if you are looking to see if a guy can be a good RP. It's why most RP are found by letting them start until they can't produce (and Jake has been getting worse each season) and then moving them to the pen and trial and error from there.

 

Some numbers of interest though, Jake's best numbers come from the first time through the lineup against players, the second time through he gives up about .100 OPS points more to hitters. The first inning is where his best career numbers come, not leaps and bounds better than the others, but still better than every other inning. In the small sample size of late and close in a game (which as I mentioned are skewed because there are few times a SP gets to that point and stays in the game) his numbers are actually very good compared to his other situational pitching numbers. Outside of these numbers, it comes back to his actual stuff, and what pitches he is throwing that are letting him down.

 

His best pitch statistically is actually his curveball, because he uses it as his out pitch. Lowest avg against, fewest HR allowed (throws it a little less than 20% of the time). Average wise, his slider is next, but while he gives up few hits and throws it about as much as the curve (less than 20%), he gives up a lot of HR with it because of his command issues, catching too much of the plate sometimes and leaving a hittable pitch. His FB and Sinker he throws around 30% of the time and around 25% of the time respectively (total fastballs near 60% of his pitches) and he gives up a good amount of his HR with each. He strikes out a bit more with his 4S than his 2S, but both are still behind the slider and curve he uses for his out pitch. When you are throwing 2 pitches 60% of the time and they are hit at around a .270-.300 clip, you are going to be in trouble the more pitches you throw.

 

Moving Jake to RP and cutting him down to a fastball, slider and curve (and if he wants to sprinkle in the 2S once in a while, fine, but he shouldn't be relying on it so much. The command issue is brought up about Jake all the time, but the truth is the majority of ML pitchers don't have real great command, the mediocre and poor ML pitchers all have issues with it. It's the really good ones that have great command, same with RP, but in the smaller spurts the power pitchers can end up being "effectively wild", and since Jake gives up the majority of his BB with his 4S, being able to throw the curve and slider more (which despite throwing later in the count he has far fewer walks with, which shows better control) should limit the BB a bit. It's almost a toss up which pitch is his worst between the 4S and 2S, he throws them both just about the same velo but has a much better K/BB ratio with the 2S, and a much lower BAA with the 4S. Almost a coin flip there, but with mixing in secondaries more in shorter spurts I think that is the MOST important part of getting him out of a starting role.

 

He's not falling apart because he can't handle pressure, he's getting hit because his most hittable pitches are the two pitches he throws the most, so law of averages, eventually he's gonna get hit the more pitches he's throwing in a start. He starts off stronger and gets more hittable as the game goes on. Those great starts that have teased us have been those starts where one of his FB are just incredibly on and unhittable, which every pitcher has starts like that (Hammel's near no-no, Tillman's CGs). Limiting his exposure, and him throwing more secondaries is going to make him a better pitcher.

[McNulty]

Seems to me like all this back and forth is highly unnecessary when whiskey is readily available.

[You Play to Win the Game]

First, most of the damage done against Jake happens the second time through the order. It's hard to read SP finite stats such as high leverage numbers because as a SP they rarely face high leverage situations unless they are already in trouble and getting hit around. Looking at their numbers facing batters for the 3rd or 4th time through the lineup is only half the story since in order to face a batter for a 3rd/4th time, a pitcher has to be doing well up to that point, and now you are facing fatigue as a possibility too. All of things will muddle the picture if you are looking to see if a guy can be a good RP. It's why most RP are found by letting them start until they can't produce (and Jake has been getting worse each season) and then moving them to the pen and trial and error from there.

 

This is a very good point about the high leverage numbers.

 

He's not falling apart because he can't handle pressure, he's getting hit because his most hittable pitches are the two pitches he throws the most, so law of averages, eventually he's gonna get hit the more pitches he's throwing in a start. He starts off stronger and gets more hittable as the game goes on. Those great starts that have teased us have been those starts where one of his FB are just incredibly on and unhittable, which every pitcher has starts like that (Hammel's near no-no, Tillman's CGs). Limiting his exposure, and him throwing more secondaries is going to make him a better pitcher.

 

I think you've convinced me. Another thing, Jake has made a couple other home openers and has pitched very well. For the Orioles the past 16 years (except last year), home openers have been as pressure filled a game as any for the O's.

 

Anyway, great post, very well thought out and convincing. It's worth at least trying him in the pen.

[JeremyStrain]

This is a very good point about the high leverage numbers.

 

 

I think you've convinced me. Another thing, Jake has made a couple other home openers and has pitched very well. For the Orioles the past 16 years (except last year), home openers have been as pressure filled a game as any for the O's.

 

Anyway, great post, very well thought out and convincing. It's worth at least trying him in the pen.

 

Yeah I mean, of course there are situations that are more pressure filled than others, but if he was so succeptible to it, the pressure of not giving up an early lead would get to him too. Then I looked into his situational stuff, and his numbers with 2 outs and runners on weren't actually all that bad. When I stepped back and looked at the big picture I realized that those situations are misleading when you are a SP more than a RP, because you could get in that situation in the first inning because your stuff is terrible, or you could get in that situation in the 7th inning because you have thrown 100 pitches already, each has a lot of context that doesn't show up in the numbers.

 

Not necessarily saying to yank him right now, but after 3 years of 20+ starts and his numbers getting worse each year, you know what you've got, and it's better to see what you've got from him in the pen than to non-tender him and watch him go somewhere else and be a lights out RP without ever trying yourself.

[Mackus]

Assuming he doesn't last much longer in the rotation this year, I'd also be in favor of converting him full-time to a reliever (I wouldn't have even given him a chance as a starter this year).

 

I would send him down to work on the change, though, rather than just swap him with Matusz or McFarland in the bullpen.

[JeremyStrain]

Assuming he doesn't last much longer in the rotation this year, I'd also be in favor of converting him full-time to a reliever (I wouldn't have even given him a chance as a starter this year).

 

I would send him down to work on the change, though, rather than just swap him with Matusz or McFarland in the bullpen.

 

Makes sense. Even if it's only for a week or two. Sending him down there would give you a chance to run him out more often to get him used to less time between outings and get him to where he could go back to back before you put him in that role on the big league club and shorten your pen by having to rest him a day or two between outings.

[bnickle]

As Palmer noted in the game, and it's obvious if you watch, Jake needs to find a way to relax on the mound. He can be jittery as t is but with runners on he's even more anxious. You have to see that and realize it is affecting his ability to execute. All of you guys who have played any sports, I'll assume thats most of you, understand that no matter what sport you have to be relaxed and comfortable to let your body execute and perform optimally.

 

 

DO I think there is something to Jake pitching 2 and 3 times through an order and that being part of his problem as a SP. Sure, absolutely. I'm also sure that if he can't find a way to stay relaxed and execute he won;t find success in any role as a SP.