346 replies to this topic

[JeffLong]

I wrote this a week ago to go up Monday, but Chris felt it was timely.

So...enjoy.

I think given the arguments I've stirred up about Arrieta it definitely was timely!

Good post, and an interesting read

[LanceRinker]

Really good piece Jon. I agree that Arrieta is best served as a late inning arm; I could even see him making a decent closer one day. That's also why I would've have been upset in the slightest had we of traded him this winter.

[Can_of_corn]

Really good piece Jon. I agree that Arrieta is best served as a late inning arm; I could even see him making a decent closer one day. That's also why I would've have been upset in the slightest had we of traded him this winter.

Career numbers.

Low Leverage 96 OPS+
Med Leverage 94 OPS+
High Leverage 126 OPS+

2012

Low Leverage 82 OPS+
Med Leverage 105 OPS+
High Leverage 177 OPS+

[LanceRinker]

Career numbers.

Low Leverage 96 OPS+
Med Leverage 94 OPS+
High Leverage 126 OPS+

2012

Low Leverage 82 OPS+
Med Leverage 105 OPS+
High Leverage 177 OPS+

Interesting.

Forget about trying him out as a closer then...

He's Kevin Gregg..=(

[SportsGuy]

Career numbers.

Low Leverage 96 OPS+
Med Leverage 94 OPS+
High Leverage 126 OPS+

2012

Low Leverage 82 OPS+
Med Leverage 105 OPS+
High Leverage 177 OPS+

Too much of a small sample size to draw many conclusions from this...even smaller sample sizes as a reliever as well.

On top of that, as good as his stuff is as a starter, it will be even better as a reliever...in other words, what the career numbers say mean nothing in terms of how he will be as a reliever IMO.

Jon's article(well done btw) just further enhances the point that Jake should be a reliever.

I am not going to say that trying him as a starter for the first few months is some horrendous idea but the bottom line is we know how this will play out...he will look very good against hitters he should look good against...he will then be brought up as a starter because of injury or poor performance from one of the other starters and he will show flashes of brilliance but mostly show inconsistency..So, after we go through this process, AGAIN, for another few months, we will come up with conclusion that he is..wait for it...A RELIEVER!

So, just stick him there now, let him be dominating at the back end of the pen, make it easier to trade JJ at the deadline and just move on.

[Can_of_corn]

Too much of a small sample size to draw many conclusions from this...even smaller sample sizes as a reliever as well.

On top of that, as good as his stuff is as a starter, it will be even better as a reliever...in other words, what the career numbers say mean nothing in terms of how he will be as a reliever IMO.

Jon's article(well done btw) just further enhances the point that Jake should be a reliever.

I am not going to say that trying him as a starter for the first few months is some horrendous idea but the bottom line is we know how this will play out...he will look very good against hitters he should look good against...he will then be brought up as a starter because of injury or poor performance from one of the other starters and he will show flashes of brilliance but mostly show inconsistency..So, after we go through this process, AGAIN, for another few months, we will come up with conclusion that he is..wait for it...A RELIEVER!

So, just stick him there now, let him be dominating at the back end of the pen, make it easier to trade JJ at the deadline and just move on.

I haven't seen any actual proof of that. Do you have any you could provide me?

[SportsGuy]

I haven't seen any actual proof of that. Do you have any you could provide me?

Yea...look at any starter who has ever converted to the pen...Most, if not all the time, their stuff is better.

[Can_of_corn]

Yea...look at any starter who has ever converted to the pen...Most, if not all the time, their stuff is better.

I figured it was just supposition on your part being passed off as a fact.

"Most" does not constitute fact. Arrieta has pitched in relief. Pitch FX data has been collected from both his time as a starter and a reliever. If you can show me actual evidence that his stuff plays up better out of the pen then you will sway me toward your point of view.

[SportsGuy]

I figured it was just supposition on your part being passed off as a fact.

"Most" does not constitute fact. Arrieta has pitched in relief. Pitch FX data has been collected from both his time as a starter and a reliever. If you can show me actual evidence that his stuff plays up better out of the pen then you will sway me toward your point of view.

I haven't looked and even if his limited innings don't show that, I don't really care all that much because its so limited but I would expect things to get better because, again, it essentially happens to everyone. If you don't want to treat that as a fact, that's fine...There is enough obvious evidence out there that it is a pretty solid conclusion to come up with.

People said the same things to me when I said this about Hunter.

His velocity was up almost 1 MPH in 2012 vs the last 2 years...how much of that happened in relief I don't know.(i don't knowe if pitchFX does month by month splits..never seen it).

[JeffLong]

Sample Size is just way too small for Arrieta...

http://www.fangraphs...tion=P&season=0
(Starter vs. reliever are the last two rows in each table)

[JeffLong]

I haven't looked and even if his limited innings don't show that, I don't really care all that much because its so limited but I would expect things to get better because, again, it essentially happens to everyone. If you don't want to treat that as a fact, that's fine...There is enough obvious evidence out there that it is a pretty solid conclusion to come up with.

People said the same things to me when I said this about Hunter.

His velocity was up almost 1 MPH in 2012 vs the last 2 years...how much of that happened in relief I don't know.(i don't knowe if pitchFX does month by month splits..never seen it).

Sports Guy, check out BrooksBaseball.net.

They have pitchf/x data broken out monthly and yearly. I would link to it but my computer won't load their site for some reason.

[Jon Shepherd]

I figured it was just supposition on your part being passed off as a fact.

"Most" does not constitute fact. Arrieta has pitched in relief. Pitch FX data has been collected from both his time as a starter and a reliever. If you can show me actual evidence that his stuff plays up better out of the pen then you will sway me toward your point of view.

Based on a spreadsheet I have, I noted 20 pitchers who switched from relief to starting over the past few years.

Seven did not see a change in their fastball velocity. That article is slated to come up on the Depot in a couple weeks. I need to sweep through the players again and make sure that I find as many as possible.

It has been a while, but I remember a few games back in Frederick when he was airing it out. He was hitting 96 or so into the third inning. His curve was hit or miss then and his change up was a bit of a mess. It would not surprise me in the least if he manage to add 2 mph to his pitches. Though, not sure how that will affect his curve.

[SportsGuy]

Based on a spreadsheet I have, I noted 20 pitchers who switched from relief to starting over the past few years.

Seven did not see a change in their fastball velocity. That article is slated to come up on the Depot in a couple weeks. I need to sweep through the players again and make sure that I find as many as possible.

It has been a while, but I remember a few games back in Frederick when he was airing it out. He was hitting 96 or so into the third inning. His curve was hit or miss then and his change up was a bit of a mess. It would not surprise me in the least if he manage to add 2 mph to his pitches. Though, not sure how that will affect his curve.

But what about starting to relief?(or is that what you meant)

[Jon Shepherd]

But what about starting to relief?(or is that what you meant)

That is what I have right now. And there certainly may be a difference going the other way.

It was not the case with Brett Myers, but yeah...I need to tweak the database slightly, but I could look at it both ways.

Good idea. I will do that.

[Mike in STL]

Hey Jon, first of all, a belated welcome to the BSL family.

Statistics aside, I wonder if Jake Arrieta was one of those guys that was in the Orioles rotation out of necessity under the MacPhail regime. It's also possible that the scouts were just wrong when it came to Jake. They were wrong about a lot of guys in the last decade. I think it's very telling where Jake Arrieta stands on this team by the fact that he wasn't on the Orioles postseason roster.

He's got a lot of work to do to win Buck over, and a stint in the bullpen is not out of the question. I've always been a proponent of all young pitchers starting in the bullpen, learning the hitters, easing their way in in some low pressure situations before you turn it over to them for nine innings. Jim Palmer, and many of the games greats started in the pen instead of throwing them to them wolves of the AL East.

Hopefully Jake pulls a Chris Tillman and surprises us this year. I really like the guy.

[Jon Shepherd]

Hey Jon, first of all, a belated welcome to the BSL family.

Statistics aside, I wonder if Jake Arrieta was one of those guys that was in the Orioles rotation out of necessity under the MacPhail regime. It's also possible that the scouts were just wrong when it came to Jake. They were wrong about a lot of guys in the last decade. I think it's very telling where Jake Arrieta stands on this team by the fact that he wasn't on the Orioles postseason roster.

He's got a lot of work to do to win Buck over, and a stint in the bullpen is not out of the question. I've always been a proponent of all young pitchers starting in the bullpen, learning the hitters, easing their way in in some low pressure situations before you turn it over to them for nine innings. Jim Palmer, and many of the games greats started in the pen instead of throwing them to them wolves of the AL East.

Hopefully Jake pulls a Chris Tillman and surprises us this year. I really like the guy.

Thanks.

Well, I don't think they made a mistake letting him start. If a guy has the potential tools, you let him start until he proves you wrong. Now, the team does not have enough slots filled at the MLB level to forcefully shove Arrieta to the pen, but few teams would have that kind of restriction.

Re: starting in the pen? I think a bit too much has been made of that. Maybe not. A half year in the pen has been basically what the transition was when it actually occurred. I think a lot of the "Oriole Way" has been kind of hyperbole.

[LanceRinker]

http://baltimorespor...l-jake-arrieta/

I know many have already given up on Arrieta and don't particularly believe he can be much more than bullpen fodder at this point but I still have hope that he'll become a reliable starting pitcher.

EDIT: There was an error in my data - Arrieta has the 10th highest BABIP among all pitchers with at least 100 IP last season, not 5th as originally stated. I've corrected it in the piece and left the incorrect data there but striked out for transparency.

[bnickle]

Arrieta will continue to be "unlucky" until he can get over the mental/anxiety issues he deals with on the mound. That is by far his biggest issue. If he finds a way to relax and execute to his abilites in pressure situations he'll have a chance to be a solid starter for us. If he can't, he'll never stick as a ML pitcher in any role.

Arrieta is a case where in a lot of ways you throw away the numbers. Whether standard or peripheral. You can't statistically measure what's going on between someone's ears.

[Woody Ball]

I must have heard about Arrieta's mental/anxiety issues a thousand times, but I've never seen a citation. Has this ever been discussed publicly or is it just an extrapolation from his poor results from the stretch?

Re: the write-up from Lance, I believe Arrieta has a major execution problem. Maybe his walk rate went down because he was focused on throwing strikes, which resulted in higher LD% and thus the higher BABIP?

[bnickle]

I must have heard about Arrieta's mental/anxiety issues a thousand times, but I've never seen a citation. Has this ever been discussed publicly or is it just an extrapolation from his poor results from the stretch?

Re: the write-up from Lance, I believe Arrieta has a major execution problem. Maybe his walk rate went down because he was focused on throwing strikes, which resulted in higher LD% and thus the higher BABIP?

Other than pure observation, Palmer has noted several times during the broadcast of games that Arrieta was seeing a sports pychologist and talked about his "nerves" on the mound.