346 replies to this topic

[Matt]

Every time I read about him being "unlucky" I can't help but let out a laugh. It's not luck that causes him to get himself into hitters counts all the time. It's not luck that has him throwing fastballs over the middle that result in the hitters hitting line drives. It's not luck that whenever a man gets on base he looks nervous and loses command.

[Slappy]

I've always found it a bit funny that such scientific analysis so often ends up being explained with "luck".

[Kevin Ebert]

I've always found it a bit funny that such scientific analysis so often ends up being explained with "luck".

Unfortunately, luck is a huge part of baseball. There's just so much of the game that is out of a player's control. Understanding what a player can and can not control is an important part of being an informed fan of the game. Sometimes, the best answer is good luck or bad luck. That doesn't make the analysis wrong.

[LanceRinker]

Unfortunately, luck is a huge part of baseball. There's just so much of the game that is out of a player's control. Understanding what a player can and can not control is an important part of being an informed fan of the game. Sometimes, the best answer is good luck or bad luck. That doesn't make the analysis wrong.

To add to that; pitchers are limited in what they can control. That's why I'm really getting into kwERA because it takes into account the things a pitcher can control (balls and strikes) while not considering the things he cannot. It's also shown to be, in current studies, to be a more reliable indicator of performance and future performance.

The difference can be related to a number of things: poor defense, poor execution, etc. But in almost all cases related to performance - good or bad - luck plays a substantial part. That's why there's the metric BABIP. That's why we keep track of averages over a period of time to have something to compare something else to.

Luck is at play in baseball. The game is built on failure and luck.

[Slappy]

Lance, Kevin -

I'm sure you guys, like me, probably watched the vast majority of batters Arrieta faced last year. Given that, and what we saw, especially after April, wasn't it fairly clear that his problem was less bad luck and instead an inability to pitch with runners on base?

In fact, the stats even back this up. With the bases empty, his K/BB rate was 3.7, but with men on it was 2.6. Put RISP and it plummets to 2.3. His BAA and SLGA had similar deteriorations: .255/.399, .296/.484, and .319/.543, respectively.

His leverage stats were similarly bad. In low leverage he had a 4.9 K/BB, and a line against of .218/.263/.397. In medium leverage, 3.33, .277/.335/.410. In high leverage, 1.36, .378/.443/1.016.

To me, this indicates that with runners on, he was pitching scared - trying to nibble on corners, getting behind in the count, then getting smoked when he had to throw something predictable. I don't see a poor BABIP as being solely the function of luck. Some of it is, for sure. But when balls are getting hit hard, BABIP is going to be high. In fact, I don't think Jake's poor BABIP is a function of luck at all:

Ground Balls BABIP: .260
Fly Balls BABIP: .121
Line Drives BABIP: .718

He just got hit hard, guys, and especially in high leverage situations.

[SportsGuy]

Lance, Kevin -

I'm sure you guys, like me, probably watched the vast majority of batters Arrieta faced last year. Given that, and what we saw, especially after April, wasn't it fairly clear that his problem was less bad luck and instead an inability to pitch with runners on base?

In fact, the stats even back this up. With the bases empty, his K/BB rate was 3.7, but with men on it was 2.6. Put RISP and it plummets to 2.3. His BAA and SLGA had similar deteriorations: .255/.399, .296/.484, and .319/.543, respectively.

His leverage stats were similarly bad. In low leverage he had a 4.9 K/BB, and a line against of .218/.263/.397. In medium leverage, 3.33, .277/.335/.410. In high leverage, 1.36, .378/.443/1.016.

To me, this indicates that with runners on, he was pitching scared - trying to nibble on corners, getting behind in the count, then getting smoked when he had to throw something predictable. I don't see a poor BABIP as being solely the function of luck. Some of it is, for sure. But when balls are getting hit hard, BABIP is going to be high. In fact, I don't think Jake's poor BABIP is a function of luck at all:

Ground Balls BABIP: .260
Fly Balls BABIP: .121
Line Drives BABIP: .718

He just got hit hard, guys, and especially in high leverage situations.

What do these numbers show in his career?

[Jon Shepherd]

Lance, Kevin -

I'm sure you guys, like me, probably watched the vast majority of batters Arrieta faced last year. Given that, and what we saw, especially after April, wasn't it fairly clear that his problem was less bad luck and instead an inability to pitch with runners on base?

In fact, the stats even back this up. With the bases empty, his K/BB rate was 3.7, but with men on it was 2.6. Put RISP and it plummets to 2.3. His BAA and SLGA had similar deteriorations: .255/.399, .296/.484, and .319/.543, respectively.

His leverage stats were similarly bad. In low leverage he had a 4.9 K/BB, and a line against of .218/.263/.397. In medium leverage, 3.33, .277/.335/.410. In high leverage, 1.36, .378/.443/1.016.

To me, this indicates that with runners on, he was pitching scared - trying to nibble on corners, getting behind in the count, then getting smoked when he had to throw something predictable. I don't see a poor BABIP as being solely the function of luck. Some of it is, for sure. But when balls are getting hit hard, BABIP is going to be high. In fact, I don't think Jake's poor BABIP is a function of luck at all:

Ground Balls BABIP: .260
Fly Balls BABIP: .121
Line Drives BABIP: .718

He just got hit hard, guys, and especially in high leverage situations.

In and of itself, this information is not very informative. We do not know what the population in general does in these scenarios. We also need to not provide a narrative to the numbers until more context and definition is given.

[LanceRinker]

While I haven't done any extensive research on the total population of pitchers for (at least) the 2012 season I was curious about a few pitchers numbers:

Justin Verlander:
Ground Balls BABIP: .184
Fly Balls BABIP: .180
Line Drives BABIP: .764

Felix Hernandez:
Ground Balls BABIP: .256
Fly Balls BABIP: .185
Line Drives BABIP: .654

Cliff Lee:
Ground Balls BABIP: .253
Fly Balls BABIP: .279
Line Drives BABIP: .745

I'm sorry but I can't, not without doing far more research with a larger sample size, say Arrieta's poor performance was due to him getting hit hard in any particular situation. The BABIP for line drives is traditionally high and while I don't have the average BABIP for line drives handy right now just take a look at three of the (arguably) best pitchers in the game right now. Two of them have LD BABIP higher than Arrieta's yet their ERA's were nowhere near as atrocious as his was.

Cliff Lee's numbers were, overall, worse than Arrieta's in regards to what you pulled Slappy yet his ERA and other performance indicators show that he was still far better overall.

ERA is flawed if you're still using it to get an idea of a pitcher's true performance or talent level.

[Matt]

I think you guys are getting too wrapped up with these sabermetrics. Anyone who watched every inning he pitched last season would tell you that his results were not due to having bad luck.

[Slappy]

While I haven't done any extensive research on the total population of pitchers for (at least) the 2012 season I was curious about a few pitchers numbers:

Justin Verlander:
Ground Balls BABIP: .184
Fly Balls BABIP: .180
Line Drives BABIP: .764

Felix Hernandez:
Ground Balls BABIP: .256
Fly Balls BABIP: .185
Line Drives BABIP: .654

Cliff Lee:
Ground Balls BABIP: .253
Fly Balls BABIP: .279
Line Drives BABIP: .745

I'm sorry but I can't, not without doing far more research with a larger sample size, say Arrieta's poor performance was due to him getting hit hard in any particular situation. The BABIP for line drives is traditionally high and while I don't have the average BABIP for line drives handy right now just take a look at three of the (arguably) best pitchers in the game right now. Two of them have LD BABIP higher than Arrieta's yet their ERA's were nowhere near as atrocious as his was.

Cliff Lee's numbers were, overall, worse than Arrieta's in regards to what you pulled Slappy yet his ERA and other performance indicators show that he was still far better overall.

ERA is flawed if you're still using it to get an idea of a pitcher's true performance or talent level.

Do you have any opinion on the leverage stats? You don't think a big issue with Jake was getting behind in counts with runners on base?

Also, if these guys had such similar (or worse) numbers than Jake, doesn't that mean they were even unluckier than him?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Arrieta went 1.2 ip today, allowing 2 hits, 2 bb's, and 3 er.

[NewMarketSean]

Not good.

Does he have options left?

If so, I can't see him starting 2013 anywhere but in Norfolk.

[Can_of_corn]

Not good.

Does he have options left?

If so, I can't see him starting 2013 anywhere but in Norfolk.

I can see him starting for another team.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Nice day for Arrieta today.... 4 ip, 2 hits, 0 er, 5 k's.

[hslaw0905]

Nice day for Arrieta today.... 4 ip, 2 hits, 0 er, 5 k's.

Does anyone think that buck forgets who started opening day for him last season? I wouldn't be shocked at all if he breaks camp as the 5th starter.

[JeremyStrain]

Nice day for Arrieta today.... 4 ip, 2 hits, 0 er, 5 k's.

Doesn't tell the whole story. Labored tbrough it and at one point went full count to like 3-4 straight guys. Always be concerned when you see a guy going full count too often.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Doesn't tell the whole story. Labored through it and at one point went full count to like 3-4 straight guys. Always be concerned when you see a guy going full count too often.

Good to know, but he didn't walk any of them, and he was the first pitcher to hit 4 innings on the year. I'd still like to see him moved to the pen, but if he doesn't claim the 5th; it looks likely he will begin the year starting at AAA.

[JeremyStrain]

Good to know, but he didn't walk any of them, and he was the first pitcher to hit 4 innings on the year. I'd still like to see him moved to the pen, but if he doesn't claim the 5th; it looks likely he will begin the year starting at AAA.

Just stuff that won't show in a boxscore ya know? Generally when I see a guy going full count too much (think Matusz) either hitters are sitting on a specific pitch they know they are going to crush, or the pitcher is working too hard for the strikeout and not being aggressive enough.

When you ask a pitcher how he likes to approach each at bat, what you want to hear is "I pitch to my own strengths, no matter who is in the box". Some guys over think on the mound and it gets them in trouble.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Just stuff that won't show in a boxscore ya know? Generally when I see a guy going full count too much (think Matusz) either hitters are sitting on a specific pitch they know they are going to crush, or the pitcher is working too hard for the strikeout and not being aggressive enough.

When you ask a pitcher how he likes to approach each at bat, what you want to hear is "I pitch to my own strengths, no matter who is in the box". Some guys over think on the mound and it gets them in trouble.

I think we all have that same basic thought.

[JeremyStrain]

I think we all have that same basic thought.

It's kinda why I've wanted to see him experiment as a RP at least, like BMat did last year. I think in short spurts when he can just go out and overpower guys, he'd think much less and just use his stuff. He's got an easy 97-98 when he can relax, and ANY offspeed pitch with that kinda FB is going to cripple guys.