Photo

BSL: Taking A Closer Look At Holliday Making The Opening Day Roster


  • Please log in to reply
186 replies to this topic

#101 RichardZ

RichardZ

    MVP

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,257 posts

Posted 27 February 2024 - 10:35 PM

Evan Carter played 111 games in AA-AAA before getting called up. Manny 109 games.
But sure, Manny wasn't hitting that well.
Yes, I'll grant you that some guys need much less time in the high minors than others. Your examples didn't quite reach the lack of experience Holliday has had, but you could probably find some exceptions that don't prove the rule.
Team situation is definitely a factor in these decisions as well. I don't think the O's are in a situation where it makes sense to push Holliday to the point of losing the extra year.
Anyway, I'll grant you the possibility that Holliday might be ready for OD, I just don't see why we should assume he will be. Why should we assume that?


Who is assuming he’s ready? Elias seems to think there’s a very good chance that he’s ready. Nothing is written in stone but all of Elias’ words and actions suggest that they are moving ahead as though there is “a strong possibility” that he’s ready. I assume that if Elias doesn’t think he’s ready that he’ll go to Norfolk to start the season.

#102 BobPhelan

BobPhelan

    OTV

  • Moderators
  • 14,548 posts
  • LocationBel Air, MD

Posted 27 February 2024 - 10:45 PM

Maybe I don't understand what they're counting, but if you have an OPS of .842 and you're 22nd in the League....that seems like you are pretty good. Maybe nobody is spectacular?


22nd out of qualified players in the league. That leaves off a lot of players. There’s no other way to categorize Norby’s 2023 other than solid but not spectacular. That doesn’t take anything away from him, he raced to AAA and has more than held his own there. Borderline top 100 prospect.
  • dude likes this

#103 mweb08

mweb08

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 30,349 posts
  • LocationRidgely's Delight

Posted 27 February 2024 - 10:49 PM

Who is assuming he’s ready? Elias seems to think there’s a very good chance that he’s ready. Nothing is written in stone but all of Elias’ words and actions suggest that they are moving ahead as though there is “a strong possibility” that he’s ready. I assume that if Elias doesn’t think he’s ready that he’ll go to Norfolk to start the season.


You said you'd guess that he's ready. Alright, so please make the case without relying on the speculation of what Elias may think. Why should we guess to use your word instead of mine that he's ready?

#104 RichardZ

RichardZ

    MVP

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,257 posts

Posted 27 February 2024 - 10:51 PM

Do you mean if we decide to play without a 2B versus putting Holiday in there? ....because I'd be interested in knowing why you think Jackson Holiday is worth 2 wins over what Mateo/Urias/Maton/whoever over the course of 3 weeks.  
 

 
Makes me laugh when people suggest this stuff is hard.  Mike Elias will have zero accountability (pressure, outcry, whatever) for whatever decision they make.  He could flip a coin and people would defend/justify whatever the decision is.


Why does it bother you that the great majority of fans will be ok with whatever Mike Elias decides?

#105 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,673 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 27 February 2024 - 10:57 PM

Why does it bother you that the great majority of fans will be ok with whatever Mike Elias decides?

 

It doesn't.  I'm commenting on Steve's comment about the difficulty of the decision.  No consequence equals no difficulty.



#106 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,673 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 27 February 2024 - 11:01 PM

22nd out of qualified players in the league. That leaves off a lot of players. There’s no other way to categorize Norby’s 2023 other than solid but not spectacular. That doesn’t take anything away from him, he raced to AAA and has more than held his own there. Borderline top 100 prospect.

 

I'm not trying to go over-board on Norby in any direction.  I think there's a fair amount of room between "solid" and "unspectacular".

 

Pipeline has him rated as one of the top 2B (different bar than other positions...almost none of the 2B would be top 10 if SS counted) but I'd be in the good+ range, short of excellent...better than solid.



#107 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,673 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 27 February 2024 - 11:24 PM

Admin note: last line of the article says 102 wins....101. Delete this 



#108 makoman

makoman

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,390 posts

Posted 28 February 2024 - 06:42 AM

I'm not trying to go over-board on Norby in any direction.  I think there's a fair amount of room between "solid" and "unspectacular".

 

Pipeline has him rated as one of the top 2B (different bar than other positions...almost none of the 2B would be top 10 if SS counted) but I'd be in the good+ range, short of excellent...better than solid.

One can have merely a solid year but still be a good+ prospect.

 

My perception of his year is skewed by his slow start. Just a 93 wRC+ at the end of June, but he did a good job bringing everything up. Still, 109 wRC+ for a bat only 2B isn't going to get you much more than solid IMO. That doesn't mean he's done or anything, I want to see him get a chance somewhere. May not be here.



#109 BSLSteveBirrer

BSLSteveBirrer

    Soccer Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,201 posts
  • LocationMS and ID

Posted 28 February 2024 - 09:30 AM

Do you mean if we decide to play without a 2B versus putting Holiday in there? ....because I'd be interested in knowing why you think Jackson Holiday is worth 2 wins over what Mateo/Urias/Maton/whoever over the course of 3 weeks.  

 

 

Makes me laugh when people suggest this stuff is hard.  Mike Elias will have zero accountability (pressure, outcry, whatever) for whatever decision they make.  He could flip a coin and people would defend/justify whatever the decision is.

I didn't say nor do I think Holiday is worth 2 wins over whomever else. Its was just to point out that it is not just simple to say send him down no matter how well he plays in ST. But apparently most think it is really that simple. Just send him down.



#110 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,673 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 28 February 2024 - 10:04 AM

I didn't say nor do I think Holiday is worth 2 wins over whomever else.

 

Sure.

 

Its was just to point out that it is not just simple to say send him down no matter how well he plays in ST. But apparently most think it is really that simple. Just send him down.

 

...because (as weber pointed out earlier) it's performance over time.  He doesn't have that yet and while many seem to think there's magical actions on the backfield that tell you everything you need to know, the fact is that only time will tell.  That time (MLB) comes with consequence.

 

For some reason, we pull the 1% cases and act like that is Jackson Holliday.  I don't know why that's important.  Whether his OPS is .675 or .725 or .775....it's not going to make that much difference (if any) for the Team in what is still a developmental season for him.

 

Age and performance is a good indicator, but that doesn't come at once.  That's what he might be in 2026-27-28...history of MLB suggests (the 20/20 hindsight we do have) is that this is hard.  Maybe he's a hammer out of the gate....but I'd want to have more confidence than we're going to get that would be the case to trade this season (and the other things) for a future, more mature season.

 

If the feeling was he can develop at the ML level, great, I need the season on the back end.  That's what Chourio just did.  Others talk about managing Service, I'm not even talking about that.  Development path.  That's it.  September of this year would be the fastest HS promotion we've seen in recent memory, somehow there's a narrative that he has to be faster than that.

 

Henderson and Westburg....you can float each way with solid players (Mateo, Urias, Maton, others) and figure out if you want Jackson at SS or 2B for his time on the Orioles while at AAA.

 

I want him to win RoY and his better chance for that would be 2025.  I want to get the PPP value and all of that works.



#111 RichardZ

RichardZ

    MVP

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,257 posts

Posted 28 February 2024 - 11:25 AM

Sure.
 

 
...because (as weber pointed out earlier) it's performance over time.  He doesn't have that yet and while many seem to think there's magical actions on the backfield that tell you everything you need to know, the fact is that only time will tell.  That time (MLB) comes with consequence.
 
For some reason, we pull the 1% cases and act like that is Jackson Holliday.  I don't know why that's important.  Whether his OPS is .675 or .725 or .775....it's not going to make that much difference (if any) for the Team in what is still a developmental season for him.
 
Age and performance is a good indicator, but that doesn't come at once.  That's what he might be in 2026-27-28...history of MLB suggests (the 20/20 hindsight we do have) is that this is hard.  Maybe he's a hammer out of the gate....but I'd want to have more confidence than we're going to get that would be the case to trade this season (and the other things) for a future, more mature season.
 
If the feeling was he can develop at the ML level, great, I need the season on the back end.  That's what Chourio just did.  Others talk about managing Service, I'm not even talking about that.  Development path.  That's it.  September of this year would be the fastest HS promotion we've seen in recent memory, somehow there's a narrative that he has to be faster than that.
 
Henderson and Westburg....you can float each way with solid players (Mateo, Urias, Maton, others) and figure out if you want Jackson at SS or 2B for his time on the Orioles while at AAA.
 
I want him to win RoY and his better chance for that would be 2025.  I want to get the PPP value and all of that works.



To state the obvious, you’d like to keep Holliday down until mid August or later to preserve his 2025 rookie status regardless of how ready the Orioles internal evaluators think he is to be a key contributor nor how well he might do at Norfolk.

Can you do a hypothetical? On Memorial Day Ramon Urias is hitting.260 with a .700 OPS. Jackson Holliday is at Norfolk hitting .330 with a .980 OPS. Do you stick to your plan and keep Holliday down until mid August?
  • Mackus and BSLSteveBirrer like this

#112 SonicAttack

SonicAttack
  • Members
  • 403 posts

Posted 28 February 2024 - 12:25 PM

David Rubenstein is going to be 75 this year, I'm sure he wants to win now, and every year (at least I would hope he does).  If that means having Holliday, Mayo and other young upcomers make the OD roster, then I would think he would be all for it, all other considerations inconsequential. 



#113 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 60,652 posts

Posted 28 February 2024 - 12:47 PM


David Rubenstein is going to be 75 this year, I'm sure he wants to win now, and every year (at least I would hope he does). If that means having Holliday, Mayo and other young upcomers make the OD roster, then I would think he would be all for it, all other considerations inconsequential.

I feel like the "and every year" part of your post is at odds with the "all other considerations inconsequential" part. Some decisions help you win now and others help you win later, and you have to balance the two. In many ways, pushing Holliday or Mayo at the beginning of 2024 would come at the expense of having them around in 2030 (i.e. "every year"). You gotta pick between a small amount of time now and all of that 2030 season.

#114 BaltBird 24

BaltBird 24

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,405 posts

Posted 28 February 2024 - 01:26 PM

There's pretty good reason to believe that having Urias and/or Mateo around to get ABs to start the year makes the Orioles better this year, and the delayed advantage of having Holliday and Mayo in 2030 makes the Orioles better then.

It's a total win/win.

#115 BSLRoseKatz

BSLRoseKatz

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,891 posts
  • LocationColumbia, MD

Posted 28 February 2024 - 01:29 PM

Okay I possibly spoke too soon for the no veteran infielders additions

 

https://twitter.com/...907077922426897


she/her


#116 BaltBird 24

BaltBird 24

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,405 posts

Posted 28 February 2024 - 01:33 PM

He was atrocious last year, but very solid prior to 2023. I'll take him as minor league depth.

#117 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 23,748 posts

Posted 28 February 2024 - 01:35 PM

Whether dude or anyone else wants to admit it the upside of Holliday in '24 is considerably higher than Mateo/Urias. You put the best you have at each position on the field. I still dont know why dude thinks the Os are going to hand Holliday the job if they dont think he is the best player for the job or expect him to be within a few months. It makes absolutely no sense to start his service time if you think Urias/Mateo are better or will be better for the year. Make it make sense. It doesnt make sense to have him on the roster OD if he is inferior or offers no upside to Urias/Mateo. They are just gonna lose a year of service time in that scenario why??? Their evaluation may ultimately be wrong but acting like you know whats best 2000 miles away and unattached from the team is beyond arrogant

#118 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 60,652 posts

Posted 28 February 2024 - 01:49 PM

I've been saying we need to hold back Holliday for 3 weeks, but it's really only 2 weeks. 3 weeks is for guys on the 40-man who would be optioned and need to be on assignment for 20+ days or else they get credit for all the service.

 

For Holliday, and anyone not on the 40-man, he'd just need to end the season with no more than 171 days of service. The season ends on Sept 29th this year, so counting backwards, if he debuts on April 12th he'd still be shy of a full year. 

 

April 12th is the 13th game of the season. It's also a Friday night to start a homestand with Burnes due to be on the mound (if schedule holds and he pitches every 5th day) against the Brewers. So it'd be great theater!


  • BSLSteveBirrer, makoman and SonicAttack like this

#119 BaltBird 24

BaltBird 24

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 21,405 posts

Posted 28 February 2024 - 02:00 PM

Whether dude or anyone else wants to admit it the upside of Holliday in '24 is considerably higher than Mateo/Urias. You put the best you have at each position on the field. I still dont know why dude thinks the Os are going to hand Holliday the job if they dont think he is the best player for the job or expect him to be within a few months. It makes absolutely no sense to start his service time if you think Urias/Mateo are better or will be better for the year. Make it make sense. It doesnt make sense to have him on the roster OD if he is inferior or offers no upside to Urias/Mateo. They are just gonna lose a year of service time in that scenario why??? Their evaluation may ultimately be wrong but acting like you know whats best 2000 miles away and unattached from the team is beyond arrogant


I don't think it's crazy at all to say that Urias provides more the first month or two than Holliday. I'm obviously not taking Urias long-term, but it's not crazy to say he could provide more to the team at the opening of the season while also saving Holliday for 2030.

#120 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 23,748 posts

Posted 28 February 2024 - 02:05 PM


I don't think it's crazy at all to say that Urias provides more the first month or two than Holliday. I'm obviously not taking Urias long-term, but it's not crazy to say he could provide more to the team at the opening of the season while also saving Holliday for 2030.

Holliday should be held down for service time reasons. I wont like it if Jackson breaks camp when as Mack says above you only have to wait 2 weeks to likely get the 7th year. Dude isnt talking about strict service time reasons. He is essentially saying dont call him up all year. He has already decided Holliday has very little chance of being better than Urias/Mateo for the year.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users


Our Sponsors


 width=