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BSL: Taking A Closer Look At Holliday Making The Opening Day Roster


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#81 dude

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 07:41 PM

Article comments,,,,

 

He’d be the fastest promotion of the Mike Elias era 

 

He'd be the fastest promotion of a HS player by ANY team in the last couple decades.  

 

Evan Carter was a 2020 draftee and he debuted last September.

Machado was a 2010 draftee and debuted in AUG 2012. (<.750 OPS '12-'14)

Bobby Witt was a 2019 draftee and debuted Opening Day 2022 (.722 OPS)

Zach Neto was a 1st rd College pick in 2022.  Angels rushed him to the Majors in 2023 and he had a .685 OPS.

 

I do not understand the importance some seem to have in getting him to the Majors faster than any other recent HS player.



#82 dude

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 07:47 PM

Trading Joey Ortiz and letting Adam Frazier leave reduces competition for a roster spot 

 

Other players have nothing to do with when Holliday gets promoted.  He's here and if he's the guy you pick to play [whatever position], then other players don't make any difference.  You get to the roster you want to get to.  Everyone can't play.  You have to make choices.

 

There's lots of ways for the Orioles to cover the position for 2024.  They won 101 games with a heavy combination of Mateo/Frasier.  I think Urias is wasted in that role but he's still here.  You can make a platoon with Nick Maton.  You could have gotten anyone as a bridge. 

 

Whenever you want Holliday, the other players don't matter because he jumps them when you decide to play him.



#83 dude

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 07:58 PM

Connor Norby is a potential wild card in this 

 

I don't understand the characterization of Norby as "solid but unspectacular".  He led AAA in doubles with 40.  He was 22nd in OPS.  Top 5 in RBI.  

 

He has almost 1000 PAs at AA/AAA the last couple years. 

 

Why would we make Norby a WC in this if we haven't already done so?  We talk about performance over time....some guys get consideration where other aren't.  No idea what they think happens with him.  There's (were?) places to trade him that didn't happen.  He's in the system with no real path to playing time.  

 

I'm not arguing for him, I prefer the other alignments, but I hate developing players in the Majors to get to player you need to develop (there's no value anywhere in that).  Like Stowers, it's a meaningless place to be for the Organization.



#84 RichardZ

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:04 PM

Rangers promoting Carter and Orioles promoting Manny didn't cost their teams any service (unless you want to compare it to those guys not coming up until 3+ weeks into the season the following year). Holliday being on the Opening Day roster this year would cost the O's an entire year of service (which he'd cost anyways if he gets enough ROY votes) unless he's demoted later in the season (like Grayson Rodriguez in 2023).

My strong lean is to send him down. I am perfectly content with Urias for a month or so (plus Mateo getting some more time) and I don't think Holliday's ROY odds as a 2B are high enough to make the chance at a pick outweigh controlling him in 2030. I'd leave the door open for him to show through a strong enough Spring that the gap between he and Urias is big enough to outweigh the above considerations of pick versus 7th year. This is purely service time manipulation, which I hate to have to do, but I do think it makes sense given the rules. I wouldn't go so far as to try and hold him back from being a Super-2 during that 7th year, that's just cash that you end up spending and isn't worth delaying.



My post had nothing to do with service time. I was responding to post that said players shouldn't be promoted to the majors until they had excelled at the upper levels of the minors for an extended period.

As for getting the 7th year, how long are you willing to keep Holliday down to insure that he doesn't finish top 2 ROY and gain the full service year anyway?

#85 RichardZ

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:07 PM

Connor Norby is a potential wild card in this

I don't understand the characterization of Norby as "solid but unspectacular". He led AAA in doubles with 40. He was 22nd in OPS. Top 5 in RBI.

He has almost 1000 PAs at AA/AAA the last couple years.

Why would we make Norby a WC in this if we haven't already done so? We talk about performance over time....some guys get consideration where other aren't. No idea what they think happens with him. There's (were?) places to trade him that didn't happen. He's in the system with no real path to playing time.

I'm not arguing for him, I prefer the other alignments, but I hate developing players in the Majors to get to player you need to develop (there's no value anywhere in that). Like Stowers, it's a meaningless place to be for the Organization.


The offense in the whole league was up. Great counting numbers but he wasn't much above average compared to the league. Whatever the stat is (WRC +?)

Norby did finish really strong and there was a mention about him not feeling 100% physically much of the year.

#86 RichardZ

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:12 PM

Article comments,,,,

He’d be the fastest promotion of the Mike Elias era

He'd be the fastest promotion of a HS player by ANY team in the last couple decades.

Evan Carter was a 2020 draftee and he debuted last September.
Machado was a 2010 draftee and debuted in AUG 2012. (<.750 OPS '12-'14)
Bobby Witt was a 2019 draftee and debuted Opening Day 2022 (.722 OPS)
Zach Neto was a 1st rd College pick in 2022. Angels rushed him to the Majors in 2023 and he had a .685 OPS.

I do not understand the importance some seem to have in getting him to the Majors faster than any other recent HS player.


It wasn't important to me until Mike Elias said there was a strong possibility that Holliday would make the team and that Hyde would give him every chance to make the team. 5 games in, Westburg has played only 3B and Holliday has played only 2B so, so far it seems important to Mike Elias.
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#87 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:15 PM

The offense in the whole league was up. Great counting numbers but he wasn't much above average compared to the league. Whatever the stat is (WRC +?)

Norby did finish really strong and there was a mention about him not feeling 100% physically much of the year.

 

Yeah Norby had a 109 wRC+ last year and idk if I can find OPS+ in the minors but wRC+ and OPS+ are pretty close to each other usually, so yeah I'd say a wRC+ or OPS+ of 105 to 115 would be solid but unspectacular in my book 



#88 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:20 PM

I have a bunch of comments, including on the article, but was looking for somewhere to put this comment and it will be here.

 

I have posted a thought of comments/thoughts on Holliday already.  There are reasonable expectations and consequences to doing what so many appear willing to hand him and I think that's silly.  He's literally earned nothing.....but at the end of the day, I don't really care.  It's just discussion about what makes sense.  

 

Anyone that wants to hand Jackson Holliday the job, great, his 2024 performance expectation should be around .700 OPS.  Could he do better than that? Sure.  He could do worse too.  Some amazing level of performance would be the least likely outcome sitting here today.  ....and he's giving you nothing back for rushing him to the Majors at 20.

 

I think pushing him into the Majors today is dumb and it has nothing to do with Service.  Development only.

 

...but if they decide to do it, whatever, I hope he does great.

Nobody is going to hand him anything. And while he may be a .700 OPS or lower guy in '24 every projection model I've seen has him higher than that so no it shouldn't be the expectation. Not that .720-740 is a huge difference but it is a difference. But its funny that you think one more year is gonna make some huge difference. THere is gonna be an adjustment period to MLB whether its at 20 yrs old or 25 .  Nor does it make that much of a difference on the back end as far as his 6th year being 25 yrs old or 26 yrs old.



#89 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:25 PM

Yeah Norby had a 109 wRC+ last year and idk if I can find OPS+ in the minors but wRC+ and OPS+ are pretty close to each other usually, so yeah I'd say a wRC+ or OPS+ of 105 to 115 would be solid but unspectacular in my book 

 

International league OPS: .794

Norby OPS: .842

 

106 OPS+ if my math is right


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#90 Mackus

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:26 PM


As for getting the 7th year, how long are you willing to keep Holliday down to insure that he doesn't finish top 2 ROY and gain the full service year anyway?

 

3 weeks. I'm not ensuring he won't garner enough ROY votes, I'm just getting that extra year in case he doesn't.  I'm betting the draft pick, basically against the 7th year, basically.  I think the 7th year is much more valuable than a comp pick, so I don't need it to be even odds that he finishes outside the top-2 to feel like its the right bet.  


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#91 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:30 PM

My post had nothing to do with service time. I was responding to post that said players shouldn't be promoted to the majors until they had excelled at the upper levels of the minors for an extended period.

As for getting the 7th year, how long are you willing to keep Holliday down to insure that he doesn't finish top 2 ROY and gain the full service year anyway?

If he is performing in AAA you make it all about service time manipulation. As soon as you get the extra year you call him up. If he finishes top 2 in ROY you tip your cap.



#92 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:31 PM

The offense in the whole league was up. Great counting numbers but he wasn't much above average compared to the league. Whatever the stat is (WRC +?)

Norby did finish really strong and there was a mention about him not feeling 100% physically much of the year.

He will use whatever stats he wants to help his narrative. Of course he knows his wRC+ or OPS+ wasn't spectacular.



#93 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:34 PM

And btw since his agent is Boras who doesnt do extensions at a young age I feel absolutely no guilt in manipulating to get a 7th year. Its business.

#94 Mackus

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:36 PM

International league OPS: .794

Norby OPS: .842

 

106 OPS+ if my math is right

 

This one is a bit confusing, but its not as simple as OPS / lgOPS.  They break it down to league comparisons of both OBP and SLG and add them. So while you're right that Norby's OPS was 6% better than league average, his OBP was 0.8% better than league average (359 to 356) and slugging was 10.3% better than league average (483 to 438).  So his OPS+ would be 111.  Plus they adjust for league and park effects, so they do that slightly differently, so can explain some further discrepancy.


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#95 Mackus

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:41 PM

Anyone that wants to hand Jackson Holliday the job, great, his 2024 performance expectation should be around .700 OPS.

 

Feels a little low to me.  Fangraphs includes 7 different projection models on their page.  They estimate Holliday for 722, 715, 715, 733, 728, 734, and 722.  All of those projections have him between 118 and 131 games, so doesn't quite feel like making the club out of ST but up fairly early.

 

I think if the O's are expecting a 700 OPS out of him, then he's not gonna make the team.  



#96 dude

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:57 PM

The offense in the whole league was up. Great counting numbers but he wasn't much above average compared to the league. Whatever the stat is (WRC +?)

Norby did finish really strong and there was a mention about him not feeling 100% physically much of the year.

Yeah Norby had a 109 wRC+ last year and idk if I can find OPS+ in the minors but wRC+ and OPS+ are pretty close to each other usually, so yeah I'd say a wRC+ or OPS+ of 105 to 115 would be solid but unspectacular in my book 

 

Maybe I don't understand what they're counting, but if you have an OPS of .842 and you're 22nd in the League....that seems like you are pretty good.  Maybe nobody is spectacular?



#97 makoman

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 09:06 PM

Feels a little low to me. Fangraphs includes 7 different projection models on their page. They estimate Holliday for 722, 715, 715, 733, 728, 734, and 722. All of those projections have him between 118 and 131 games, so doesn't quite feel like making the club out of ST but up fairly early.

I think if the O's are expecting a 700 OPS out of him, then he's not gonna make the team.


Exactly, no one is putting him on the team if they think he’s worse than Adam Frazier this year.

Tatis had a .969 OPS at 20 after about 450 PAs of AA, no AAA. Soto had a .923 OPS at 19 with 8 games at AA. Sure, they got a bunch of lower minors time instead of high school ball. But he’s the top prospect, he’s supposed to be on that same level. I have no idea if he’s ready, but if the team thinks he is I’ll be fine with that regardless of meeting traditional AAA thresholds.

Those guys came up mid season though. The extra year is very valuable so I lean towards getting that. I just don’t think it matters a whole lot that he’s young and relatively inexperienced IF he’s that type of talent.
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#98 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 09:08 PM

Maybe I don't understand what they're counting, but if you have an OPS of .842 and you're 22nd in the League....that seems like you are pretty good.  Maybe nobody is spectacular?

 

OPS+ and wRC+ are both stats based on the league average where 100 is exactly average and 110 is 10% better than the average, it provides context for production if the league/park is particularly hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly

 

In 1968 Mickey Mantle had .782 OPS and a 143 OPS+ because of how pitcher-friendly that year was, while in 1998 BJ Surhoff had a .789 OPS and a 105 OPS+ because that was during the steroid era



#99 dude

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 09:11 PM

The lineup is deep enough where Holliday could struggle without harming the team that much 

 

I don't feel like the article is as promotional for his promotion as others seem to be (if I'm reading it correctly), but I don't really get this comment.

 

I agree with the comment, but why would anyone want to survive Holliday's struggles because the lineup can cover.

 

Does anyone really care that Holliday is wearing an Orioles jersey? Again, I'm good with it whenever it happens, he's here so he'd be part of my Plan A, but the Orioles aren't better because he's on the ML Club.  He's useful when he's good, like anyone/everyone else. 

 

Performs at a younger age is about projection of performance as you gain experience, strength, etc....MiL performance at a young age isn't about current ML performance....it's about where you wind up, not today.   



#100 dude

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 09:17 PM

What would the expectation be with Holliday on the roster vs not? Maybe 2 wins different? Now certainly come September those couple of wins might be critical. So its the risk reward question.

 

Do you mean if we decide to play without a 2B versus putting Holiday in there? ....because I'd be interested in knowing why you think Jackson Holiday is worth 2 wins over what Mateo/Urias/Maton/whoever over the course of 3 weeks.  

 

Guess this is what Elias makes the big bucks for. Tough decision.

 

Makes me laugh when people suggest this stuff is hard.  Mike Elias will have zero accountability (pressure, outcry, whatever) for whatever decision they make.  He could flip a coin and people would defend/justify whatever the decision is.






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