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BSL: Taking A Closer Look At Holliday Making The Opening Day Roster


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#41 mweb08

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 12:44 PM


What is the traditional and public ways that players show they are ready?


Primarily by performing very well in the high minors for an extended period of time.

#42 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 01:24 PM

Trust me Im not making much of anything of it. But Jackson has struck out in 4 of his 5 ABs so far. One walk one flyout to go with those Ks

#43 RichardZ

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 01:31 PM

Trust me Im not making much of anything of it. But Jackson has struck out in 4 of his 5 ABs so far. One walk one flyout to go with those Ks



Just a public service announcement?

#44 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 01:33 PM

Just a public service announcement?

Just a public service announcement. Still time to hit .400 in spring.

The thing here is I want the Os to be sure hes ready to go every day up here. Dont force it. I dont think they will.

#45 RichardZ

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 01:35 PM

Primarily by performing very well in the high minors for an extended period of time.



So the Rangers goofed by promoting Evan Carter last year after 8 games in AAA and worse stats than Holliday in AA? The Orioles shouldn’t have promoted Machado from AA with a sub .800 OPS.

You can’t compare 19 and 20 year old phenoms to 23-24 year old very good prospects.
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#46 RichardZ

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 01:41 PM

Just a public service announcement. Still time to hit .400 in spring.
The thing here is I want the Os to be sure hes ready to go every day up here. Dont force it. I dont think they will.


I wouldn’t be surprised if he needs time to adjust against ML LHP in particular and I could see him getting his days off against certain lefties. I know his strikeout today was against a RHP. We’ll see how his spring unfolds but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t figure things out sooner rather than later. Turned another DP today which is a good sign defensively.

#47 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 02:27 PM

Added a 2nd K today but also his first hit



#48 CantonJester

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 02:41 PM

I’m more concerned with his pop-gun arm than I am whether or not he can hit ML pitching. 



#49 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 02:53 PM

Hes turning DPs. I dont know that hes got a poor arm. Its prob avg to above avg for 2b. Just isnt an ideal arm for SS



#50 Mackus

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 03:32 PM

Regarding arm strength....

 

https://baseballsava...rd/arm-strength


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#51 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 03:45 PM

Interesting that Mateo and Mullins had the same avg MPH on throws. His arm really isnt the liability it was perceived to be. At least not from a straight MPH perspective. There are also things to consider like how quick your release is and of course accuracy. Still felt like teams werent afraid to run on him. Interesting that Urias and Westburg are quite a bit below avg. Urias doesnt surprise me. Can tell his arm isnt very good. Westburg being in the blue was surprising. But when the competition is Frazier who is one of the worst its easy to look better.

#52 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 03:46 PM

Wish we could get some statcast data on Holliday

#53 makoman

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 03:48 PM

Regarding arm strength....

 

https://baseballsava...rd/arm-strength

And also I believe BA had him at like 77, which would be bad at SS but fine at 2B.

 

Obviously a quick release can mitigate or entirely overcome this.



#54 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 03:53 PM

77 isnt good, but yes you can do things to mitigate. Also something he can seemingly improve some ticks if he wants. You see these guys, whether its pitchers or position, be able to add some velo when the focus on it.

#55 mweb08

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 03:54 PM

So the Rangers goofed by promoting Evan Carter last year after 8 games in AAA and worse stats than Holliday in AA? The Orioles shouldn’t have promoted Machado from AA with a sub .800 OPS.

You can’t compare 19 and 20 year old phenoms to 23-24 year old very good prospects.


Evan Carter played 111 games in AA-AAA before getting called up. Manny 109 games.

But sure, Manny wasn't hitting that well.

Yes, I'll grant you that some guys need much less time in the high minors than others. Your examples didn't quite reach the lack of experience Holliday has had, but you could probably find some exceptions that don't prove the rule.

Team situation is definitely a factor in these decisions as well. I don't think the O's are in a situation where it makes sense to push Holliday to the point of losing the extra year.

Anyway, I'll grant you the possibility that Holliday might be ready for OD, I just don't see why we should assume he will be. Why should we assume that?

#56 Mackus

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 04:07 PM

So the Rangers goofed by promoting Evan Carter last year after 8 games in AAA and worse stats than Holliday in AA? The Orioles shouldn’t have promoted Machado from AA with a sub .800 OPS.

You can’t compare 19 and 20 year old phenoms to 23-24 year old very good prospects.

 

Rangers promoting Carter and Orioles promoting Manny didn't cost their teams any service (unless you want to compare it to those guys not coming up until 3+ weeks into the season the following year).  Holliday being on the Opening Day roster this year would cost the O's an entire year of service (which he'd cost anyways if he gets enough ROY votes) unless he's demoted later in the season (like Grayson Rodriguez in 2023).

 

My strong lean is to send him down.  I am perfectly content with Urias for a month or so (plus Mateo getting some more time) and I don't think Holliday's ROY odds as a 2B are high enough to make the chance at a pick outweigh controlling him in 2030.  I'd leave the door open for him to show through a strong enough Spring that the gap between he and Urias is big enough to outweigh the above considerations of pick versus 7th year.  This is purely service time manipulation, which I hate to have to do, but I do think it makes sense given the rules.  I wouldn't go so far as to try and hold him back from being a Super-2 during that 7th year, that's just cash that you end up spending and isn't worth delaying.



#57 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 04:12 PM

Rangers promoting Carter and Orioles promoting Manny didn't cost their teams any service (unless you want to compare it to those guys not coming up until 3+ weeks into the season the following year). Holliday being on the Opening Day roster this year would cost the O's an entire year of service (which he'd cost anyways if he gets enough ROY votes) unless he's demoted later in the season (like Grayson Rodriguez in 2023).

My strong lean is to send him down. I am perfectly content with Urias for a month or so (plus Mateo getting some more time) and I don't think Holliday's ROY odds as a 2B are high enough to make the chance at a pick outweigh controlling him in 2030. I'd leave the door open for him to show through a strong enough Spring that the gap between he and Urias is big enough to outweigh the above considerations of pick versus 7th year. This is purely service time manipulation, which I hate to have to do, but I do think it makes sense given the rules. I wouldn't go so far as to try and hold him back from being a Super-2 during that 7th year, that's just cash that you end up spending and isn't worth delaying.

Boras being his agent also plays a role. It just makes an extension less likely. Maybe much less likely.

#58 mweb08

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 04:37 PM

Rangers promoting Carter and Orioles promoting Manny didn't cost their teams any service (unless you want to compare it to those guys not coming up until 3+ weeks into the season the following year). Holliday being on the Opening Day roster this year would cost the O's an entire year of service (which he'd cost anyways if he gets enough ROY votes) unless he's demoted later in the season (like Grayson Rodriguez in 2023).

My strong lean is to send him down. I am perfectly content with Urias for a month or so (plus Mateo getting some more time) and I don't think Holliday's ROY odds as a 2B are high enough to make the chance at a pick outweigh controlling him in 2030. I'd leave the door open for him to show through a strong enough Spring that the gap between he and Urias is big enough to outweigh the above considerations of pick versus 7th year. This is purely service time manipulation, which I hate to have to do, but I do think it makes sense given the rules. I wouldn't go so far as to try and hold him back from being a Super-2 during that 7th year, that's just cash that you end up spending and isn't worth delaying.


They may make their decision based on service time, but it's entirely reasonable to think he has more to do before getting the call. So to me, it doesn't have to be purely service time manipulation to have him start the year in Norfolk.

#59 Mackus

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 04:42 PM

They may make their decision based on service time, but it's entirely reasonable to think he has more to do before getting the call. So to me, it doesn't have to be purely service time manipulation to have him start the year in Norfolk.

 

It's purely service time for me.  If I knew he was locked in for 2030 regardless of the decision, then he'd be my Opening Day 2B unless he completely flops in ST. His production through the system last year, scouting reports, and the way they've pushed him tell me enough that I'd go to him right away over starting with Urias and having Holliday produce at Norfolk for a while to prove he's ready.  Agree its reasonable to go the other way, but that's how I'd handle it.



#60 mweb08

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 04:45 PM

I don't think Norby should be excluded from consideration for playing time either. He has over 200 games now in the upper minors with pretty strong production.
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