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BSL: Taking A Closer Look At Holliday Making The Opening Day Roster


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#21 BaltBird 24

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Posted 26 February 2024 - 09:10 PM

If Mounty doesnt hit better vs RHP I cant say he should get 500 ABs.


Savant has him as an elite stud both 2022 and 2023 despite the pretty meh raw numbers. I'm rolling with Mountcastle and hoping his luck is reversed at some point.

#22 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 26 February 2024 - 11:16 PM

Can someone explain the new draft pick compensation/service time rules? I can’t keep up with all this

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

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#23 PrimeTime

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 07:34 AM

What they’re saying about him but also how they’re handling him. Started the first game with all the vets from 2023, batted 6th today, getting him ready to play second base every day.

Mayo playing like he wants a job too early on.


Why not SS for Holliday? Or are they thinking Holliday at 2nd, Gunnar at SS and Westburg at 3rd?

I just don't want to see Westburg be the odd man out again this year.
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#24 PrimeTime

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 07:46 AM

If Mounty doesnt hit better vs RHP I cant say he should get 500 ABs.


I believe most of Mountcastle's struggles vs RHP came in the 1st half when he was dealing with the vertigo but I can't find platoon splits by month to confirm.
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#25 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:00 AM

I believe most of Mountcastle's struggles vs RHP came in the 1st half when he was dealing with the vertigo but I can't find platoon splits by month to confirm.

 

Fangraphs has it

 

Screen-Shot-2024-02-27-at-7-59-44-AM.png


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#26 Mackus

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:02 AM

I believe most of Mountcastle's struggles vs RHP came in the 1st half when he was dealing with the vertigo but I can't find platoon splits by month to confirm.

 

539 OPS v RHP before his demotion

784 OPS v RHP after his return

 

For his career he's 742 v RHP.



#27 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 08:44 AM

I would fell a lot better about Mounty had he not had such an abysmal last month. I am fine with Mounty this year but I want to see him playing fairly close to full time at least until he shows he does or does not have the ability to hit RHers at the needed level.



#28 Mackus

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 09:05 AM

I would fell a lot better about Mounty had he not had such an abysmal last month. I am fine with Mounty this year but I want to see him playing fairly close to full time at least until he shows he does or does not have the ability to hit RHers at the needed level.

 

The needed level is better than O'Hearn. I think that question is far more about how well will O'Hearn hit in 2024?  We have a lot more confidence in knowing what Mountcastle will do, he'll be about league average against RHP, heavy on the slugging.  So mostly a matter of if O'Hearn is better than that like last year or goes back to struggling like previous seasons.



#29 PrimeTime

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 09:22 AM

Fangraphs has it

Screen-Shot-2024-02-27-at-7-59-44-AM.png


I was trying on Fangraphs but clearly on the wrong screen. Thanks.
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#30 PrimeTime

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 09:23 AM

539 OPS v RHP before his demotion
784 OPS v RHP after his return

For his career he's 742 v RHP.


So certainly a difference vs righties post vertigo. Sometimes perception does equal reality.
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#31 mweb08

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 10:11 AM

I still think it would be a very poor decision to not get the extra year with Holliday. I don't even think it's really service time manipulation either. He played 36 games in AA and 18 in AAA last year. He didn't crush it in that small AAA sample either. He also has limited experience at the position he's apparently slated to play. I don't really see his profile as a good spring training away from earning the opening day nod.

#32 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 10:13 AM

I still think it would be a very poor decision to not get the extra year with Holliday. I don't even think it's really service time manipulation either. He played 36 games in AA and 18 in AAA last year. He didn't crush it in that small AAA sample either. He also has limited experience at the position he's apparently slated to play. I don't really see his profile as a good spring training away from earning the opening day nod.

 

I think a natural SS playing 2B is one of the easier moves you can make as far as positions go to be fair, you need less range, less arm strength, etc while not needing to learn anything new 


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#33 mweb08

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 10:27 AM

I think a natural SS playing 2B is one of the easier moves you can make as far as positions go to be fair, you need less range, less arm strength, etc while not needing to learn anything new


It's easier, but the preference is still to have more reps there.

#34 RichardZ

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 10:43 AM

It's easier, but the preference is still to have more reps there.


He played 22 games there last year. He'll get another 20 this spring. I trust the teams judgement on whether he's ready or not both offensively and defensively. My guess is that he's ready.

#35 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 11:32 AM

Lets assume for the sake of discussion that he shows he's clearly ready (Dude don't ask me to define that).

 

So then the question is do you put him on the OD roster or send him down for 3 weeks to keep the extra year of service? Over that 3 week period the O's play around 29 games through April and its not a very difficult stretch.

 

What would the expectation be with Holliday on the roster vs not? Maybe 2 wins different? Now certainly come September those couple of wins might be critical. So its the risk reward question.

 

1. The record may or may not be any better with Holliday on the roster for April.

2. Even if it is better the number of games may not make any difference on the O's playoff chances at the end of the season. 

3. But you for sure lose a year of control.

 

Guess this is what Elias makes the big bucks for. Tough decision.



#36 jamesdean

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 11:46 AM

I think it's stupid to put Holliday at 2nd base.  That should be Westburg's position to lose.  If you're going to bring him north, give him his natural position and keep Henderson at 3rd.  Mateo should never be the every day short stop.



#37 Mackus

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 11:57 AM

Over that 3 week period the O's play around 29 games through April and its not a very difficult stretch.

 

 

There is no 3-week period where anybody plays 29 games :)



#38 makoman

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 12:14 PM

I think it's stupid to put Holliday at 2nd base.  That should be Westburg's position to lose.  If you're going to bring him north, give him his natural position and keep Henderson at 3rd.  Mateo should never be the every day short stop.

Westburg played more 2B in the majors but he played plenty of 3B. Played more 3B in the minors. I think last year was more the nature of the roster than Westburg in particular--wanting to limit Frazier vs lefties and Urias being much better at 3B than at 2B. 

 

If Gunnar is better than Holliday at SS (and right now it sounds like that's likely the case) then I'd rather Gunnar be the guy. If that changes at some point, reevaluate. But if Holliday makes the team then him, Gunnar, Westburg from 2B/SS/3B on most days is fine to me. 



#39 mweb08

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 12:30 PM

He played 22 games there last year. He'll get another 20 this spring. I trust the teams judgement on whether he's ready or not both offensively and defensively. My guess is that he's ready.


I'm not sure why we should reach that conclusion considering he hasn't demonstrated that he's ready in the traditional and publicly available ways players show that.

#40 RichardZ

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Posted 27 February 2024 - 12:40 PM

I'm not sure why we should reach that conclusion considering he hasn't demonstrated that he's ready in the traditional and publicly available ways players show that.


What is the traditional and public ways that players show they are ready?




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