186 replies to this topic

[makoman]

I've been saying we need to hold back Holliday for 3 weeks, but it's really only 2 weeks. 3 weeks is for guys on the 40-man who would be optioned and need to be on assignment for 20+ days or else they get credit for all the service.

 

For Holliday, and anyone not on the 40-man, he'd just need to end the season with no more than 171 days of service. The season ends on Sept 29th this year, so counting backwards, if he debuts on April 12th he'd still be shy of a full year. 

 

April 12th is the 13th game of the season. It's also a Friday night to start a homestand with Burnes due to be on the mound (if schedule holds and he pitches every 5th day) against the Brewers. So it'd be great theater!

Yeah, game 13 is an easy decision, and that's if the next few weeks tell the team he is completely ready, which isn't a given. If he then happens to win ROY making it all for naught, well, congrats, good for him, and that means he did well and helped the team. 

[mdrunning]

Okay I possibly spoke too soon for the no veteran infielders additions

 

https://twitter.com/...907077922426897

Could be due to the Orioles thinking that Maton might not pass through waivers.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

It would be a disaster if Maton didn't pass through waivers. 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Yeah, game 13 is an easy decision, and that's if the next few weeks tell the team he is completely ready, which isn't a given. If he then happens to win ROY making it all for naught, well, congrats, good for him, and that means he did well and helped the team. 

 

Agree, but I think it's first or second in ROY voting, though, like what happened with Adley.

[dude]

Apologies for not responding to this earlier.  Away for the last couple days.

 

To state the obvious, you’d like to keep Holliday down until mid August or later to preserve his 2025 rookie status regardless of how ready the Orioles internal evaluators think he is to be a key contributor nor how well he might do at Norfolk.

 

I'd like to get Holliday 500+ PAs at AA/AAA as the assessment of readiness. I don't have an issue with how much they pushed him last year, so pushing someone into that window is ok with me....but that's still faster than any HS draftee.  Also, it's 1 SEP, not mid-AUG.

 

Can you do a hypothetical? On Memorial Day Ramon Urias is hitting.260 with a .700 OPS. Jackson Holliday is at Norfolk hitting .330 with a .980 OPS. Do you stick to your plan and keep Holliday down until mid August?

 

Short answer: yes.  

 

Longer answer: I don't want to say there's no condition where I wouldn't promote him.  My position isn't extreme. Other players already have performance over time, but nobody seems to argue for them, it's ONLY Jackson Holliday which must be ascended to MLB as rapidly as possible.  500 PAs takes him deep into the summer.  I'm not trading the 45-60 days in MLB opposed to the other benefits that comes with 1 SEP.

 

There's nothing that suggests (or really can suggest) that 2024 isn't going to be a developmental year for a 20 year old with one professional season under his belt.  Still growing.  Still plenty to learn.  I already said (contract structures last SEP) that I can accept him developing in the Majors.  The issue for me isn't what he produces in 2024 (I'd have more modest expectations) it's that he's already told you that you have to trade this (developmental year) for a future season.  You don't get to figure it out without having the consequences of figuring it out.  I'm not (if it were up to me, it's not) paying those consequences.

 

He gets to make the choices he wants and that's fine, but so do the Orioles.  It's kind of funny to me what an issue this seems to have become.  Whatever they do, I hope he does great.  He's not necessary, but he's here so....cool.

[RichardZ]

Dude, you say your position isn't extreme but isn't that for others to judge. You have said that keeping him down has nothing with gaining the extra year of service time, previously, but here you explicitly talk about trading this ("developmental year") for an extra year on the back end. You seem really hung up on Jackson Holliday being 20 and getting special treatment and then put it on certain posters here.

Mike Elias is the one who raised expectations by saying there was a "strong possibility" of Jackson Holliday making the OD roster and that Brandon Hyde would give him every opportunity to do so. Before Elias said that I thought Holliday had no chance. If the GM, someone with a background and talent evaluation, some might say even better than you, says he is potentially ready then I'm buying in. Elias didn't have to say that. The PC rhetoric would have been "we love Jackson but he probably needs more reps in AAA but we'll keep an open mind".

You keep saying 2024 is a developmental year for Holliday. Isn't it a developmental year for Kjerstad, Cowser, Westburg, and even Henderson. The majors are the final developmental ground. Holliday aced everything up to AA and was beginning to ace AAA when the season ended. If you are really concerned with his development the majors are the place for him.

Your biggest motivation in all of this seems to be the ROY and the potential draft pick. If it were the service time you'd suggest calling him up earlier. If it was it was for his development as a player the majors would be the best place. You haven't once, that I know of, said it might hurt the teams record or playoff chances.

So,your major motivation in all of this is a draft pick in the #36 range where the odds of getting a true difference maker (name one impact player Elias has drafted in that range besides Henderson) are slim.

Our sandwich picks include ? Westburg, Beavers, Stowers, (I'll have to check). Some good prospects/players but no franchise type players, apparently. Your, non extreme, position is to avoid promoting Holliday even if he is extremely raking at Norfolk and might actually boost the teams chances in the season and playoffs (interesting that you wouldn't promote him til Sept 1 when he'd be ineligible for the postseason roster).

Your position seems rigid. Based more on Hollidays age and your perception on where he should be in his development than what his actual present day skills and production might be. Again, if Elias thinks Holliday is ready to be a significant contributor (why else would they have him?) then it's good enough for me.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The hilarious thing is dude is all about trying to win. Never rebuild. You always try. Never know what can happen. Yet here we are with this situation and hes damn sure he knows what Jacksons season will look like. Also essentially saying he wouldnt call Jackson up til some set time late in the season regardless of performance and how much he might be able to help. Make it make sense. He talks out both sides of his ass.

[RichardZ]

The hilarious thing is dude is all about trying to win. Never rebuild. You always try. Never know what can happen. Yet here we are with this situation and hes damn sure he knows what Jacksons season will look like. Also essentially saying he wouldnt call Jackson up til some set time late in the season regardless of performance and how much he might be able to help. Make it make sense. He talks out both sides of his ass.

Dude seems really bothered by how fast Holliday might make the majors as if it's unfair to Cowser, Stowers, or whoever. IMO, the reason is, potentially, being treated special is because Elias thinks he's SPECIAL. You can't compare his development to the average top 50 prospect. Something tells me we might go through this again in 2025 with Basallo.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah he doesnt seem to understand that hes the unanimous top prospect in baseball. Of course that honor assures him nothing at the MLB level, but it aint hard to figure out why hes being looked at or treated differently.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

But Ill tell you Richard what I think a big part of this is about. Dudes ego. Hes been on this anti rebuilding/tanking agenda so hard and so long he hates that Jackson Holliday, the 1:1 pick, has become the top prospect in baseball. Not only earned the top spot but that its been a meteoric ascention and that he could be impacting the MLB team less than 2 years after being drafted out of HS. That spits in the face of everything his stupid anti-rebuild narrative is all about. Id wager deep down he doesnt want Holliday to be an impact player. Ever.

[dude]

You guys are funny.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Holliday is making you look like a fool and you hate him for it

[RichardZ]

You guys are funny.

Thank you.

[jamesdean]

If you're a genuine Orioles fan, how can you not like this rebuild?  Sure, the lean years were brutal but I think it's all worth it if they become the baseball equivalent of the Ravens and put out a play-off caliber team every year. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

For me its all about this asinine out dated metric of gotta have 500 at bats in AA and AAA. The players and their development are way different than years ago. With all the games and competitive camps kids attend growing up it just wrong to stick so rigidly to out dated logic. Not arguing that that wasn't a valid logic years ago. Its just different now.

 

Shoot check this out:

 

 https://www.fccincin...innati-pipeline

 

A 19 year old got a key assist. And in the second half they subbed in a 16 year old kid. This isn't some semi pro team. This is one of the top teams in the top soccer league in the US.

 

But I know baseball is hard......

[dude]

If you're a genuine Orioles fan, how can you not like this rebuild?  Sure, the lean years were brutal but I think it's all worth it if they become the baseball equivalent of the Ravens and put out a play-off caliber team every year. 

 

I can answer this question in some detail, but everyone seems to get mad when I do.  <<shrug>>

[BaltBird 24]

I can answer this question in some detail, but everyone seems to get mad when I do. <<shrug>>

It's a rainy Saturday. I'm here for it.

[dude]

Shoot check this out:

 

 https://www.fccincin...innati-pipeline

 

A 19 year old got a key assist. And in the second half they subbed in a 16 year old kid. This isn't some semi pro team. This is one of the top teams in the top soccer league in the US.

 

I have no idea what any of this is, but FCC2 is one of the worst teams in the League (not one of the best).

 

Some kid making his 3rd appearance on the second team of one of the worst teams in the League wouldn't seem to make the point you may have been hoping.  Not to further decimate a terrible argument, but you're also talking about a League that has 2 seasons under it's belt.  FFC 2 was the worst team in their Division in 2022 and they don't have standings prior to 2022.  In 2022 there was only 21 Team in the 2 Conferences.  Last year there was a big jump in the Teams from 21 to 27.  Naturally, as you expand teams in a fringe League, you are just trying to find anyone to fill out rosters.

 

I won't delete that, but that is terrible linking from the article.  FCC2 is the 3rd developmental team(?) for FCC.  The link is an FCC2 article about FCC (like the Tides writing an article about the Orioles).  FCC is the top team in their League.  The role of the kids described still doesn't support the hypothesis (still modest contributions).

 

Performance over time isn't (and will never be) an 'outdated concept'.  

[jamesdean]

I can answer this question in some detail, but everyone seems to get mad when I do.  <<shrug>>

I don't get mad at your posts.  

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Of course, we do agree on one thing. Performance over time is not nor ever will be an outdated concept. What is outdated IMO is some notion of 500 at bats being the line where by you have enough intel to make the decision.

 

AFWIF its not some hypothesis. There are loads of players under 20 playing in the top soccer leagues all over the world. That is a fact. Its proven that young players can play at the highest levels. That is a fact.

 

If you want to discount that because of some notion that baseball is harder and takes more development so be it.