186 replies to this topic

[dude]

Of course, we do agree on one thing. Performance over time is not nor ever will be an outdated concept. What is outdated IMO is some notion of 500 at bats being the line where by you have enough intel to make the decision.

 

I'll still ask you how you do that assessment and you'll continue to tell me you don't know and it doesn't matter.  Performance over time literally has to happen over time.  You don't get ABs without Games, you play one Game per day.  SSS in Baseball is about the most misleading of everything we look at.  You get out of SSS by more sample size.  I don't know how you get that performance against advanced competition without performing against advanced competition.

 

If you could do it in a world without consequences, whatever, that's not the rules, context or world of MLB.

 

AFWIF its not some hypothesis. There are loads of players under 20 playing in the top soccer leagues all over the world. That is a fact. Its proven that young players can play at the highest levels. That is a fact.

 

If you want to discount that because of some notion that baseball is harder and takes more development so be it. 

 

My answer is different to this.  It applies to all of these clowns that want to talk about pitching mechanics.

 

GMing in MLB is typically a shorter gig.  If there was any merit to rushing 20 year olds into the Majors to win, you'd see a bunch of Teams doing it because most GMs don't even last the Service of a ML Player..

 

Also, if streaming 20 year olds into the lineup was a thing, you get new 20 year olds every year.  What happens when they turn 21 or 26 or 28 or 31.....do you have to get rid of them because they aren't 20 and only "20" wins?  So that's kind of dumb right? You tell me you want to be more selective than just streaming 20 year olds onto the roster and I'll again ask how you make that decision....which is a question you don't want to answer.  

 

If we want to answer the question of Soccer vs Baseball, we probably can with things like peak skill/talent levels, exposure to quality competition and the relevance of experience, but let's just look at how many Teams commit to what you want to do in a world where only results matter.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Yes performance over time is a factor. I don't need 500 at bats as some preconceived line you need to cross. Its a made up number. If Holliday leaves ST with an OPS over .850 then I am sending him down for the minimum to earn the service year at the end.  I've seen enough to put him in the bigs. That isn't going to be anywhere near your magic 500.

 

If he hits around .800 or less then I send him down for a month to 6 weeks and see how he's doing at the time. But as soon as he has a run at AAA of 10 or so games with an OSP over .850 I am bringing him up depending on how the Orioles roster is doing. Probably still way less than the magic 500.

 

But I no universe am I leaving him down at AAA with an OPS over .800 just to wait until he gets 500 at bats combined between AA and AAA. 

 

And I am not advocating just running 20 year olds out on the roster. I AM advocating that there are lots of players who are younger that I believe could and should be pushed to the majors faster than baseball has historically done.

 

Lets make a friendly wager. How many at combined AA and AAA at bats will Holliday have before he makes the O's roster. He sits at 217 right now.

 

Lets make the over under 375 (that would be just about 50 more AAA games). I'll take the under which is still way less than your magic 500. So you are taking the over right?

[dude]

Lets make a friendly wager. How many at combined AA and AAA at bats will Holliday have before he makes the O's roster. He sits at 217 right now.

 

Lets make the over under 375 (that would be just about 50 more AAA games). I'll take the under which is still way less than your magic 500. So you are taking the over right?

 

You understand I'm not making a prediction, right?  I'm sharing an opinion about Baseball on a Baseball message board.  I've said this a couple of times but....I don't really care what they do.  What they do has consequences.

 

Jackson Holliday would be part of my plan A today (respective timeline), but whatever they do with him, I hope he does well when he gets here. 

[dude]

But I no universe am I leaving him down at AAA with an OPS over .800 just to wait until he gets 500 at bats combined between AA and AAA. 

 

Mayo, Norby, Cowser and Kjerstad have all done better (more ABs, better performance) than that. 

 

Are you building rules for only Jackson Holliday or everyone?

 

Do you think Jackson Holliday is the key to success for the Orioles 2024 season?

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Mayo, Norby, Cowser and Kjerstad have all done better (more ABs, better performance) than that. 

 

Are you building rules for only Jackson Holliday or everyone?

 

Do you think Jackson Holliday is the key to success for the Orioles 2024 season?

1. I would promote players based on several factors of which a big one is where they play and who they'd replace. None of those guys replace Mateo or Urias. Holliday does.

2. I think the 2024 O's could do very well with our without Holliday. I do think they are better with him. Again its who he could replace.

[Mackus]

Mayo, Norby, Cowser and Kjerstad have all done better (more ABs, better performance) than that.

Are you building rules for only Jackson Holliday or everyone?

Do you think Jackson Holliday is the key to success for the Orioles 2024 season?

Not all slash lines are equal. A younger guy hitting at A+ and AA means more than a guy who is older playing against their peers. Those other guys are excellent prospects with good performance. Holliday has surpassed them all.

If I think a guy is ready to contribute and I need help at the position, it's utterly stupid to not bring him up because he hasn't reached an arbitrary threshold of at bats. Usually you need all of those PAs before you think a guy is ready. But on rare occasions some guys are so advanced that they are ready without that experience.

[dude]

Not all slash lines are equal. A younger guy hitting at A+ and AA means more than a guy who is older playing against their peers. 

 

...but that's about projection, not current expectation.

[Mackus]

...but that's about projection, not current expectation.

Yes, about how you can project from his 2023 levels into 2024.

[dude]

Yes, about how you can project from his 2023 levels into 2024.

 

Right, but I said something around .700- and you countered with multiple sources that project him between .715 and .731.  

 

I don't expect .675 or .700 or .725 to be his ultimate performance, but those are 1SP type expectations for a player at this stage.  He'll get likely get better over time.  He may be producing an .800 OPs at an age where others are still AA or AAA....but those will be later seasons.

[mweb08]

Yes, about how you can project from his 2023 levels into 2024.

To some extent sure, but longterm projection to a larger extent.

[Mackus]

Right, but I said something around .700- and you countered with multiple sources that project him between .715 and .731.

I don't expect .675 or .700 or .725 to be his ultimate performance, but those are 1SP type expectations for a player at this stage. He'll get likely get better over time. He may be producing an .800 OPs at an age where others are still AA or AAA....but those will be later seasons.

But by June when he's reached your 500 PA threshold he'll then rake at 800+ right away?

I'm no scout, so I can't say if he's ready or not. But he doesn't have to get to X PA in order to be ready. Most guys aren't ready until they've had a larger sample at the upper levels, we all agree with you there. But everyone rational disagrees that there is a set minimum PA count before which it's impossible to be ready.

[Mackus]

Julio Rodriguez had 206 PA at AA, 0 at AAA before winning Rookie of the Year in 2022.

[Mackus]

Corbin Carroll had 277 PA at AA, 157 at AAA before winning Rookie of the Year in 2023.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Its all dude narrative. As is everything with him. Again, Holliday succeeding early makes him look bad. Really, Holliday succeeding at all makes him look bad, but particularly this early. He wants Jackson to be like a 2 WAR player so he can continue his "rebuild" agenda. See the 1:1 guy gives you 2 WAR. If you needed a 2 WAR guy you just go out and sign x or trade for x. There is no one special or unique that tanking or rebuilding.....zzzzzzz zzzzzz zzzzzz


We are past all the rebuilding and tanking. No one gives a single crap anymore either way. Phelan thinks Elias turned water into wine. Mack hates the way we totally tanked for draft picks for multiple years. At this point, no one cares about 2019-2021 anymore but thats essentially all dude wants to talk about still.

[RichardZ]

Mayo, Norby, Cowser and Kjerstad have all done better (more ABs, better performance) than that. 
 
Are you building rules for only Jackson Holliday or everyone?
 
Do you think Jackson Holliday is the key to success for the Orioles 2024 season?

What are the rules? Whatever rules you’re using, it seems the Orioles either have a different set or have decided there are times when it’s wise to make exceptions.

It’s not about what I think, or anyone else thinks. Mike Elias clearly thinks that Jackson Holliday is someone who can help the 2024 Baltimore Orioles be the best version of themselves. Now ask yourself, what is Elias’ motivation? If Holliday is only a mild improvement over Ramon Urias why would he risk starting Hollidays clock in 2024 rather than 2025? Simple question. Take your Dude GM hat off and put your Mike Elias GM hat on and answer that one.

[dude]

.... but thats essentially all dude wants to talk about still.

 

uh....where am I bringing it up? You have convinced yourself that Jackson Holliday being on the Orioles in 2024 somehow justifies rebuilding and makes me wrong.  

 

Yes or No, Jackson Holliday is the only path for the Orioles to succeed.  If the answer is Yes, hey, I'm wrong.  ....but if the Orioles say, won 100+ games before Jackson Holiday, then ???  Most people around here think the Orioles are being disrespected if they are considered anything but the best team in the League and right now, guys like Holliday, Cowser, Kjerstad and Bradish barely figure into that.

 

If having the 1-1 pick is the only catalyst for success, how will the Orioles win without Paul Skenes.?  How did the Rangers win the WS? Why do the Dodgers and Rays keep having so much success?  The Team with 2 of the best players in MLB history didn't make the Playoffs over 6 years. You think you have an angle, but you don't.

 

You aren't good at this.  You should stop trying but in true Wile E. Supra Genius spirit, I'm guessing you won't.

[dude]

Julio Rodriguez had 206 PA at AA, 0 at AAA before winning Rookie of the Year in 2022.

 

Debuted at 21 (a year older), had 3 MiL seasons and twice the Games/PAs and signed a 7/120M extension.

 

Corbin Carroll had 277 PA at AA, 157 at AAA before winning Rookie of the Year in 2023.

 

The Corbin Carroll path would have Jackson Holliday debut in September of 2025.

[dude]

What are the rules? Whatever rules you’re using, it seems the Orioles either have a different set or have decided there are times when it’s wise to make exceptions.

It’s not about what I think, or anyone else thinks. Mike Elias clearly thinks that Jackson Holliday is someone who can help the 2024 Baltimore Orioles be the best version of themselves. Now ask yourself, what is Elias’ motivation? If Holliday is only a mild improvement over Ramon Urias why would he risk starting Hollidays clock in 2024 rather than 2025? Simple question. Take your Dude GM hat off and put your Mike Elias GM hat on and answer that one.

 

I'm still not sure what you need from me.  I've shared my opinion.  It's funny how worked up some people are about it, but <<shrug>> 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I'm still not sure what you need from me. I've shared my opinion. It's funny how worked up some people are about it, but <<shrug>>

You rarely give direct responses to questions. Its usually dude gibberish and misdirection. If Im telling lies I welcome someone else to call me out for the mischaracterization.

[dude]

You rarely give direct responses to questions. Its usually dude gibberish and misdirection. If Im telling lies I welcome someone else to call me out for the mischaracterization.

 

Wile E, I just asked you a direct question...what was the answer?