323 replies to this topic

[NewMarketSean]

So I’m coming around to the scenario where LJ plays under the tag this year. I don’t know the man but it would be incredibly unwise to leave $35M on the table to sit out and further weaken your negotiating position. So I believe he’ll hold out as long as possible and eventually play. Beckham probably adds a little bit of motivation, since, if LJ has a good year as a passer he can go out and command even more money than before. 
 

I know there are circumstances beyond LJ’s control that affected his ability to get the deal he wanted and some of that is not fair/bad luck on his part. But he should bet on himself and go ball out this year and take it from there. 

[St.Steveg]

So I’m coming around to the scenario where LJ plays under the tag this year. I don’t know the man but it would be incredibly unwise to leave $35M on the table to sit out and further weaken your negotiating position. So I believe he’ll hold out as long as possible and eventually play. Beckham probably adds a little bit of motivation, since, if LJ has a good year as a passer he can go out and command even more money than before. 
 

I know there are circumstances beyond LJ’s control that affected his ability to get the deal he wanted and some of that is not fair/bad luck on his part. But he should bet on himself and go ball out this year and take it from there. 

I don't see how holding out as long as possible and eventually playing (especially with new receivers and a new offensive coordinator) is conducive to balling out. Sounds to me more like a recipe for failure. A quarterback needs to be 110% on the same page with his team.

[hallas]

If he plans on playing on the tag I'd skip the OTAs and show up for training camp. No reason not to if you're definitely going to play. They're covering you in bubble wrap during the preseason anyway, so it just helps you get comfortable.

[Mike in STL]

I've had my fill of these "sources."  I can almost guarantee you if someone confronted Lamar about the tweet(if he ever emerges from his media blackout), he'd deny it up and down and I would tend to believe him.  I think some of these "reliable" sources are a product of a rich imagination and very loose journalism.  Either way, what's done is done and they have Beckham now and we move on accordingly. If Lamar ultimately signs the tag its because no other team wants him and he doesn't want to sit out a whole season.  Beckham is just a side story and someone else for him to throw to.  How's this for a storyline...."Hollywood Brown is holding Lamar Jackson hostage in his basement." 

Sarah Ellison used to write for the Ravens. I value her opinion. She went on to list why she might believe it, even though she can't verify it. Seems to believe it because Lombardi is a former GM in the league so he has ties and connections in that world. Explains the overpay for Beckham, reports were they were interested in Hopkins.

 

Maybe Beckham was option two and they had make damn sure they got him.

 

This team is now making financial mistakes, IMO, bending over backwards for our QB that asked to be traded...but won't sign the tender allowing them to. I know most of the Beckham money won't hit until next year. But it's still $15M you're paying someone not worth $15M. 

[bmore_ken]

Sarah Ellison used to write for the Ravens. I value her opinion. She went on to list why she might believe it, even though she can't verify it. Seems to believe it because Lombardi is a former GM in the league so he has ties and connections in that world. Explains the overpay for Beckham, reports were they were interested in Hopkins.

 

Maybe Beckham was option two and they had make damn sure they got him.

 

This team is now making financial mistakes, IMO, bending over backwards for our QB that asked to be traded...but won't sign the tender allowing them to. I know most of the Beckham money won't hit until next year. But it's still $15M you're paying someone not worth $15M. 

Yep. I've been onboard with DeCosta since he took over. I  now believe he's Fing up. It's like he learned nothing from Oz. 

[Steve55]

Sarah Ellison used to write for the Ravens. I value her opinion. She went on to list why she might believe it, even though she can't verify it. Seems to believe it because Lombardi is a former GM in the league so he has ties and connections in that world. Explains the overpay for Beckham, reports were they were interested in Hopkins.

 

Maybe Beckham was option two and they had make damn sure they got him.

 

This team is now making financial mistakes, IMO, bending over backwards for our QB that asked to be traded...but won't sign the tender allowing them to. I know most of the Beckham money won't hit until next year. But it's still $15M you're paying someone not worth $15M. 

 

 

Just hope they both ball out so both can get paid. Then we can get 2 #1's and a comp pick and move on.

[Slidemaster]

Lamar doing nothing until the week before game time and expecting to show up and run Monken's offense to perfection is a recipe for mediocrity.

[makoman]

Lamar doing nothing until the week before game time and expecting to show up and run Monken's offense to perfection is a recipe for mediocrity.

Yeah I don’t understand the point of holding out. He wouldn’t be allowed to sign an extension at that point.

[St.Steveg]

Yep. I've been onboard with DeCosta since he took over. I  now believe he's Fing up. It's like he learned nothing from Oz. 

I recall him once quoting Money Ball saying, "The day I feel like I have to make a deal is the day I make a bad deal." Yup. I hear people say it was desperation, I hear people say it's a gamble. Yes to all of the above. And yet if it works out, ie: Lamar signs and has a great season, it will be a good deal. Sometimes circumstances force you out of your comfort zone.

[hallas]

Sarah Ellison used to write for the Ravens. I value her opinion. She went on to list why she might believe it, even though she can't verify it. Seems to believe it because Lombardi is a former GM in the league so he has ties and connections in that world. Explains the overpay for Beckham, reports were they were interested in Hopkins.

Maybe Beckham was option two and they had make damn sure they got him.

This team is now making financial mistakes, IMO, bending over backwards for our QB that asked to be traded...but won't sign the tender allowing them to. I know most of the Beckham money won't hit until next year. But it's still $15M you're paying someone not worth $15M.

The Athletic pointed out that OBJ is the 23rd highest paid WR, and the average of the 20-24th highest paid WRs was 58 receptions and 714 yards. That's maybe on the high side, but its pretty close to my median expectation, especially if he plays the whole season. It's just slightly lower than what he did in a full season + playoffs in 2021.

I will say this, Ozzie and EDC have made a career of getting people at below market rates, and while I'd call this a very mild overpay relative to the WR market, it's a significant overpay relative to Ozzie and EDC's own history. That said, the desperation is a result of misreading the WR market last draft and ending up with 4 TEs on the team and no wide receivers, while staring down a questionable WR class this year. Paying Odell here is a consequence of the decisions of the past.

[hallas]

By the way, if you had to pick DHop and a 2nd for 1st and 3rd rounders, or Jeudy for a first straight up, which would you take? Jeudy is pretty young and has is still on his rookie deal. DHop is a possible HOFer but he's going to be 31 and costs $$$.

[Slidemaster]

By the way, if you had to pick DHop and a 2nd for 1st and 3rd rounders, or Jeudy for a first straight up, which would you take? Jeudy is pretty young and has is still on his rookie deal. DHop is a possible HOFer but he's going to be 31 and costs $$$.

Jeudy and it isn't close.

But I wouldn't take either for those deals.

[bmore_ken]

By the way, if you had to pick DHop and a 2nd for 1st and 3rd rounders, or Jeudy for a first straight up, which would you take? Jeudy is pretty young and has is still on his rookie deal. DHop is a possible HOFer but he's going to be 31 and costs $$$.

They can't afford Hopkins capwise. 

[bmore_ken]

The Athletic pointed out that OBJ is the 23rd highest paid WR, and the average of the 20-24th highest paid WRs was 58 receptions and 714 yards. That's maybe on the high side, but its pretty close to my median expectation, especially if he plays the whole season. It's just slightly lower than what he did in a full season + playoffs in 2021.

I will say this, Ozzie and EDC have made a career of getting people at below market rates, and while I'd call this a very mild overpay relative to the WR market, it's a significant overpay relative to Ozzie and EDC's own history. That said, the desperation is a result of misreading the WR market last draft and ending up with 4 TEs on the team and no wide receivers, while staring down a questionable WR class this year. Paying Odell here is a consequence of the decisions of the past.

There's a lot I agree with there. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The Athletic pointed out that OBJ is the 23rd highest paid WR, and the average of the 20-24th highest paid WRs was 58 receptions and 714 yards. That's maybe on the high side, but its pretty close to my median expectation, especially if he plays the whole season. It's just slightly lower than what he did in a full season + playoffs in 2021.

I will say this, Ozzie and EDC have made a career of getting people at below market rates, and while I'd call this a very mild overpay relative to the WR market, it's a significant overpay relative to Ozzie and EDC's own history. That said, the desperation is a result of misreading the WR market last draft and ending up with 4 TEs on the team and no wide receivers, while staring down a questionable WR class this year. Paying Odell here is a consequence of the decisions of the past.

Its a big result of running Roman's offense. WRs were never gonna be used that much. But your point about the avg contract value of WRs and this not being that big of an overpay is well taken.

 

 

 

BTW we will see how Lamar does with better guys on the outside. Hes still got something to prove in that regard. he prefers the middle of the field.

[makoman]

Willie Snead signed an extension for 1/6M the other year. Sammy Watkins signed for 1/5M. Crabtree got 8M for his one year in Baltimore. 1/15M is very likely an overpay but he has upside that those kind of guys don't. This just isn't some drastic franchise crippling move that's a signal of the downfall of the organization like people are saying. Maybe it should have been more like 1/10M based on recent history but if the knee is perfectly healthy I'm sure he'll be far better than any of those other guys were. 

[cprenegade]

That's why I said "if it's real"....On one hand, it sounds completely absurd.

However, there's a small part of me that could absolutely hear Lamar saying that.

 

I have a hard time believing that is the way it went down.  That would mean the Ravens FO has become more like the Cleveland Browns FO.  

 

I think it is more like EDC realizing that he made a huge mistake getting rid of Hollywood without replacing him with anyone of quality.  And he made a huge mistake believing that Bateman, Duvernay, and Proche along with the garbage picked up from other teams really was an NFL caliber WR group.  

 

There wasn't a lot out there in free agency so he needed to take a gamble.  It is a big one.  But in reality it might be the best shot they have.  I don't like the money they spent, but I get it.  Their WR group was so pathetic that you have to take that gamble.  Even if OBJ only plays 1/2 or less games he is easily better than every one else they have.  

 

I know other QB's have had input into teams moves.  I think Aaron Rogers wanted receivers.  I believe Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger had input into their teams off season moves.  There is one big difference.  All those guys won big games and notably, Superbowls.  Lamar Jackson has won nothing in this league.  He's got some great ESPN highlight clips, and exactly 1 playoff win in his 5 year career.  If EDC is making moves based on what Lamar wants, he won't have his job for long.  Nor should he.  

[Slidemaster]

I have a hard time believing that is the way it went down. That would mean the Ravens FO has become more like the Cleveland Browns FO.

I think it is more like EDC realizing that he made a huge mistake getting rid of Hollywood without replacing him with anyone of quality. And he made a huge mistake believing that Bateman, Duvernay, and Proche along with the garbage picked up from other teams really was an NFL caliber WR group.

There wasn't a lot out there in free agency so he needed to take a gamble. It is a big one. But in reality it might be the best shot they have. I don't like the money they spent, but I get it. Their WR group was so pathetic that you have to take that gamble. Even if OBJ only plays 1/2 or less games he is easily better than every one else they have.

I know other QB's have had input into teams moves. I think Aaron Rogers wanted receivers. I believe Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger had input into their teams off season moves. There is one big difference. All those guys won big games and notably, Superbowls. Lamar Jackson has won nothing in this league. He's got some great ESPN highlight clips, and exactly 1 playoff win in his 5 year career. If EDC is making moves based on what Lamar wants, he won't have his job for long. Nor should he.

I don't even think getting rid of Hollywood was a huge mistake. I think it probably just didn't work out how they wanted in the draft and they're trying to make sure it doesn't fall that way again. I would still trade Hollywood for Linderbaum today.

[makoman]

I don't even think getting rid of Hollywood was a huge mistake. I think it probably just didn't work out how they wanted in the draft and they're trying to make sure it doesn't fall that way again. I would still trade Hollywood for Linderbaum today.

Based on nothing I’m convinced they wanted one of the four WRs that were gone at 14. Everyone was surprised Hamilton was there.

[Slidemaster]

Based on nothing I’m convinced they wanted one of the four WRs that were gone at 14. Everyone was surprised Hamilton was there.

I think you're right.