425 replies to this topic

[makoman]

Why was Holiday not in the lineup last or the bench for Bowie last night?

He’s been out sick for like a week.

[Hooded Viper]

He’s been out sick for like a week.

Gotcha, missed that, been a busy week. Thanks

[BobPhelan]

He should be back soon, he went on the 7 day IL mid to late last week so I’d say by Tuesday at the latest if not this weekend.

[RShack]

Jackson Holliday has "the Good Face".

[You Play to Win the Game]

Got tossed last night. Didn’t look like much, but must’ve said something. As he should’ve. Terrible call of course.

https://twitter.com/...60M8ZOe1IyiordQ

[CantonJester]

Got tossed last night. Didn’t look like much, but must’ve said something. As he should’ve. Terrible call of course.

https://twitter.com/...60M8ZOe1IyiordQ

 

Responded the next night with 5-6, 3b, sb, 2 rbi & 3 runs scored for the evening.

 

The kid’s good. 

[dude]

There's limited windows to different things.  Holliday's agent is Boras so you have some pretty predictable outcomes in terms of contract approach. I would suggest there's a fairly narrow window, basically RIGHT NOW, to do something, IF you wanted to.

 

Note 1: I make the assumption that promoting Holliday 01 SEP doesn't hurt his development.  The bat still may take some time, so the analysis is really about speed of The Game defensively.  Something like this doesn't even necessarily involve Elias (this is Boras-Angelos) but I like to imagine the world where we do smart things.

 

Note 2: I typically have some level of concern for how younger players handle MLB life style and accelerated financial growth.  Money creates some complications whether people want to admit it of not.  In Jackson's case, he's grown up in MLB lifestyle and extreme wealth.  This is also an assessment I'd like to think you could make a smart decision on (in that world), but my external assessment is that he's going to focus on the opportunities of MLB, not the trapping associated with it.  He actually has had those 'other things' for a while.

 

Sign Jackson Holliday to a 6-yr deal. I could argue variations of this that balance risk-reward for both Team and Player, but this is the kind of simple middle-of-the-road version.

 

The BASE Condition (the most reasonable expectation) would have Jackson promoted sometime between June and September with the money on September for specific reasons. The base condition (assuming first promotion is final) has him at AAA most of 2024 (age 20), first full season in 2025 (age 21) and a FA after the 2030 season (age 26)...so 27 (birthday early December) entering FA.

 

There is another ISSUE Condition to consider that includes injury or poor performance.  Those may be considered by the Boras Camp as low risk, but they are downside risks.  Everyone is an achilles or elbow from missing one+ seasons.  If you struggle for whatever reasons, the timeline can get bumped to the right.  That may not impact your overall career much, but it does change your start point, FA, etc.

 

CONTRACT: 6-yr, 35M.  Contract contains 2 team option years.

 

1.1M signing bonus

2023: promote (age 19)

2024: 700k

2025: 700k

2026: 700k

2027: 4.5M

2028: 9M

2029: 13M

5M buyout on 2/40 team option

2030: 20M

2031: 20M (age 27)

 

That's 6/35 or 8/70 for the Orioles (FA at 28)

 

BASE Case is probably something like 32M thru 2030 and FA at 27

ISSUE case is probably also something like 32M thru 2031 and FA at 27

 

I don't think Boras would have an argument not to do something like this.  He's giving up a year of FA at age 27, but he's getting a year on the front side.  That year on the front side is worth a lot.

 

I think Matt (dad) would tell him to do it.

- Make your debut at age 19.  Not a lot of kids can say that.

- Set yourself up for RoY in 2024. You have some 2023 experience and be locked in for the full season from day 1. 

- All of the promotion timeline discussions/debate go away. (actually good for both sides)

- Go to the Playoffs now.  Playoffs are never a guarantee, you are likely there in 2023 which gives you a career chance at something special (WS Ring). 

- Start your ML stats.  You add this season and you get a full season of PAs at 20 in 2024.  It's always too early to discuss HoF type stuff, but accumulation of stats is what it is and whatever you do at AAA next year doesn't get added to your career numbers. When you start now, it does.

- Mitigate all performance and injury risk.

 

This wouldn't have been my perspective even 6 months ago.  The challenges Mateo has had since April and Jackson's performance up through AA this season put something like this in play for me.

[BaltBird 24]

I can't see the Orioles ever being a forward thinking organization while under Angelos control. This should've been done for Machado, Rutschman, Gunnar.

[dude]

This should've been done for Machado, Rutschman, Gunnar.

 

Machado: I'd argue the driving force behind Machado's promotion was something else.  Maybe they could have done it, but they were incentivized differently then.  I'm disappointed the Orioles were never able to leverage the benefit they handed him.  I argued for this after the fact and we had many discussions on it this site.

 

Rutschman: Absolutely.  I made basically the exact same argument here in 2020 (I think).  Other long posts about what they should do now (7/140).  You always fight from the foxhole you're in.

 

Gunnar: I don't feel like this opportunity was probably ever reasonable with Gunnar.  There's a set of conditions you kind of need to do it and I don't think I could make an argument for his timeline/development.  I will say this, if Holliday did something like this, I would go back to Gunnar and make an argument.  He's probably good for 5 years at this point, but if he wants to team with Holliday on the left-side for a while, offer him 10-years in terms of a guarantee and give him an out after 7.  Otherwise, start lining up your 2028 3B-man.

[dude]

September lineup

 

CF Mullins

C  Adley

3B Gunnar

DH Mounty

RF Santander

1B OHearn

LF Hays

SS Holliday

2B Westburg

 

Bench: McCann, Urias, Frazier, Mateo, Hicks

 

That's actually probably more of the 2024 lineup since they'd likely still leverage matchups for the rest of this year...so you go "Vs RHers" and you get more Frazier than Westburg and "Vs LHers" you get more McCann and Urias than OHearn and Holliday.

 

Likely have to make some bench changes for 2024.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Looking at Holliday's performance at Bowie he has hit even better than at Aberdeen.  

 

Slash line is .361/.554/.974

 

He has 93 plate appearances at AA and looks like he should just get moved up to AAA.

 

 

But then what do you do with Ortiz?

 

.347/.547/.946

 

A good problem to have but looks like the O's have to move Ortiz this winter. He is 24 too so not like he's some young kid like Holliday. Only reason i bring this up is because yesterday on MLB network they were discussing if the O's should bring up Holliday when the rosters expand in September. 

 

Doesn't make sense to move Holliday to AAA unless Ortiz is moved to Baltimore. Would they really just move Holliday over Ortiz and straight to the O's next month?

[BaltBird 24]

Ultimately I think we're best with Gunnar at 3B, and some combination of Holliday/Ortiz/Westburg at SS and 2B.

Holliday shouldn't be up until next year.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah, Holliday sometime next year. Some think he will break camp with the Os. I dont think that would be wise. Nor is it necessary.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Ok but back to the other question. Do you move Holliday to AAA now or just let him ride out the season in Bowie? And if you move him to AAA does that automatically mean you move Ortiz to the O's? I don't think it makes any sense to have them both in AAA.

[Mackus]

Ok but back to the other question. Do you move Holliday to AAA now or just let him ride out the season in Bowie? And if you move him to AAA does that automatically mean you move Ortiz to the O's? I don't think it makes any sense to have them both in AAA.

 

I'd keep him at Bowie another 4 weeks or so and if he's still raking then consider promoting him to Norfolk for the final 3 weeks.  He's still shy of 100 PA at Bowie and while he's hit great he also has a couple underlying things that haven't matched what he did at Aberdeen, particularly BB/K ratio.  Gunnar had 200 PA before being promoted and was 2 years older than Jackson is now.  I'm fine with leaving him at Bowie all season and starting next year at Norfolk with a path to promotion around Memorial Day, sooner if he's just killing it.

 

I do think he and Ortiz can coexist if needed.  Ortiz is going to benefit from moving around the diamond, so get him more work in at 2B.

[Mike B]

i would let him finish the year at Bowie.  93 AB's is not much.  If he stays at AAA, he will get about 150 more.  That should have him ready to move up to AAA in 2024.

[mweb08]

I do think he and Ortiz can coexist if needed.  Ortiz is going to benefit from moving around the diamond, so get him more work in at 2B.

 

Sure they can, but when you add Gunnar and Westburg to the mix, then there's an issue with coexisting. 

 

One of them should be dealt imo. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah well Ill keep all 4 if I dont get the value I want in a trade. Injuries can occur. Can use all 4 anyway. Realistically only talking about trading Ortiz or Westburg. Holliday and Gunnar arent being traded anytime soon.

[hallas]

I can't see the Orioles ever being a forward thinking organization while under Angelos control. This should've been done for Machado, Rutschman, Gunnar.

 

The window for Machado being extended was really weird. There wasn't an established precedent for extending players before they hit the majors - the Rays were pretty much the only team that did it. And then in his 2nd full year he blows his knee out.  You're unlikely to extend him the following year because you need to see how his injured leg holds up, and then after that, you've got 3 arb years left and Machado may not have been open to it at that stage.

 

With Gunnar and Rutschman early extensions have become the norm for many teams, especially smaller-market teams, and so the O's would be silly not to.  But they probably won't.

[mweb08]

Yeah well Ill keep all 4 if I dont get the value I want in a trade. Injuries can occur. Can use all 4 anyway. Realistically only talking about trading Ortiz or Westburg. Holliday and Gunnar arent being traded anytime soon.

 

I don't think it's cool on a human level to tell one of these guys that they're essentially a bench player that will only get a real opportunity if someone gets hurt. These guys aren't young as Steve mentioned. Ortiz is 25 and Westburg is 24 and a half. Their time is now; open up the opportunity or trade one of them where they'll get that chance. It's not even like a hey, just wait a year until so and so is gone. It's wait for several years, but hey you may Wally Pipp someone at some point!

 

I know some may not care much about treating people well in what is essentially the business world, but I also don't think that's a good use of resources unless the trade market is shockingly poor for Westburg and Ortiz (the trade market will more likely than not get worse for whoever is primarily riding the pine as well). 

 

They also have good infield depth even if they deal one of them, so I'm not stressed about that. 

 

Also, and this is really unfortunate, but the time where we (and Elias) start contemplating trading Gunnar will likely be here faster than we'd prefer.