155 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I think you really have to consider keeping him. Guy just goes out start after start and does his job. I guess the question is how much is the team option and can they find a better starter for similar money. 

[Mackus]

I'd pick up the option then try to find two better starters. Once I do I trade him. If we can only find one, then he's the second guy.

One real good SP is a mandatory addition. Any off-season plan that doesn't get one is a failure. And that can't be Lyles. But he or someone similar could be the second guy, though I'd prefer someone closer to the first.

[mweb08]

I think you really have to consider keeping him. Guy just goes out start after start and does his job. I guess the question is how much is the team option and can they find a better starter for similar money.

He's a below average starter in terms of run prevention.

The O's have plenty of players that deserve roster spots next year and they also have extremely little money committed to the payroll, so imo they should be looking to get 2-3 high level players to supplement what they have. 1-2 of them should be starting pitchers. No need to settle for Lyles when the payroll flexibility should allow them to compete for anyone they want; Verlander, for instance.

Unless it's a for a high leverage bullpen arm, I don't think the O's should be shopping in the Lyles price range unless it's someone they really love for some reason.

[makoman]

If I could guarantee this year again next year I’d be fine with him as a back end innings eater, but I feel like this year was kind of the best case expectation when signing him and he likely won’t repeat.

I suppose pitching is always in enough demand that picking up the option and trying to trade is feasible.

As others say I want two better external starters.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I agree I want to go after 2 better starters including one TOR guy. But I see Lyles as being a good enough guy to fit in. And if the young guys do well enough then he's a reliable trade piece. But I like having him going into next season while we see just how Kremer, Bauman, and Bradish fare. And how GRob starts out of the shoot. Rather have Lyles than Watkins.

[mweb08]

Even if they only get 1 higher level starter, I'd be good with that dude, Kremer, GRod, Bradish, and a competition between guys like Voth, Hall, Wells, and Baumann. Then Means at some point plus any minor leaguers that may enter the picture. 

 

2 pitchers easily better than Lyles would be even better. 

 

Either way, I'm completely on board with bringing in high end talent to supplement what's on the roster rather than spending on meh players. 

 

Limited available roster spots (without dealing guys) and what should be an incredible availability of cash should result in spending big on a few very good to elite players.

 

I'll remain skeptical of that happening until it does though.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I have little interest in Lyles. Especially at 10 mil

[McNulty]

I have little interest in Lyles. Especially at 10 mil

Our payroll next year has one guy above Arb1 (Santander) and Means at just under 3 mil. Everyone else is pre arb or arb1

10 mil for a league average starter on a one year deal is a STEAL. Especially one this durable.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I thinking picking up the option gives you flexibility.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If I thought he could be a league avg starter Id have no problem with it. I have little confidence in that. Id rather give 15 mil to someone more reliable.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If I could guarantee this year again next year I’d be fine with him as a back end innings eater, but I feel like this year was kind of the best case expectation when signing him and he likely won’t repeat.

I suppose pitching is always in enough demand that picking up the option and trying to trade is feasible.

As others say I want two better external starters.

Exactly. I feel like 90 ERA+ is best case scenario. No guarantees of course but Id rather spend 15 mil on a guy with more upside and more likely to have a higher floor.

[mweb08]

Our payroll next year has one guy above Arb1 (Santander) and Means at just under 3 mil. Everyone else is pre arb or arb1

10 mil for a league average starter on a one year deal is a STEAL. Especially one this durable.

 

Your first line is precisely why they should aim higher than Lyles. Much higher. 

 

He's also below league average, consistently so at that. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

There are players at every position in the ML that are better right now than every player on the O's roster. Except perhaps for Bautista. You can't upgrade everywhere. Now maybe there are enough quality SP that you can add two and upgrade over Lyles.

[mweb08]

There are players at every position in the ML that are better right now than every player on the O's roster. Except perhaps for Bautista. You can't upgrade everywhere. Now maybe there are enough quality SP that you can add two and upgrade over Lyles.

 

If this is a response to me, I have been very clear that I don't want to try to upgrade everywhere. I've said precisely the opposite. Upgrade in a big way in 2-3 spots plus maybe a high-end reliever. Backup catcher too, but that's small potatoes. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Lyles gives you innings. Thats the main thing and Im not trying to undervalue that. Im just of the opinion that I want to try to get some more juice from my squeeze. Someone like Syndergaard or Greinke may have more injury risk and are likely to throw less innings but with likely better production when they do pitch.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

If this is a response to me, I have been very clear that I don't want to try to upgrade everywhere. I've said precisely the opposite. Upgrade in a big way in 2-3 spots plus maybe a high-end reliever. Backup catcher too, but that's small potatoes. 

No just a general thought.

[mweb08]

Lyles makes sense for two type of teams imo.

 

A team that is not trying to win and does not have enough reasonable starting pitching options to fill out a rotation. That was this year's Orioles.

 

A team that has 4 guys written in pen for the rotation (like 3 legit established starters and 1 young guy that needs opportunity), but nothing good for that last spot and without much room in the budget.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'd love to have 5 Lyles.   Underwhelming individually talent wise / run prevention wise.... but dependable, and regularly gave you a chance to win. If you had '5 of them', there would be a further collective value I think. 


I liked Mackus plan. Pick up the option. Try and make two rotation upgrades. If you do, trade him.

[McNulty]

My point is that 10 mil on this payroll is nothing. It doesn’t even break your stride on spending.

You can never have enough arms. I’m not advocating for him to start opening day but as a 4th, you can do much much much worse.

[mweb08]

My point is that 10 mil on this payroll is nothing. It doesn’t even break your stride on spending.

You can never have enough arms. I’m not advocating for him to start opening day but as a 4th, you can do much much much worse.

10 mil on the payroll is nothing. So is 30 million. Get someone who is actually good.