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Jordan Lyles


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#21 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 10:22 AM

The practical downside is that it's $7M that they won't spend on someone else. If it's Lyles or nobody, sure, I'll take Lyles. And it's entirely possible that he ends up as one of the better profiles among guys who sign in the $5-10M range. He's more of a sure bet for slightly-below-mediocre performance rather than someone like Archer in recent years who has higher upside but also could be complete disaster or not even pitch. Lyles isn't really the point, he's fine, maybe they paid too much, but that doesn't matter unless this is all the money they're willing to spend.

Go get two more guys. Means, 3 mediocre FAs on cheap deals, and one young guy (Zimmerman or Baumann leaders entering ST) in the opening day rotation is good with me. Good is the wrong word, but it's at least meeting the bare minimum to pretend like you're a real MLB team, which we haven't done in recent years. People will get hurt and/or struggle and plenty of starts will become available for guys like Bradish, Smith, Akin, Kremer, and others. Also can us those guys in the pen. And then Rodriguez is given a spot whenever he needs it.

Well, theyll be signing more FA SPs on cheap deals. Who knows maybe they do bring in another guy at 5 mil. Theyll def bring in another Harvey type or two.

#22 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 10:31 AM

Again, I get behind trying to do the bare minimum to be competant every year but everyone is jumping off a cliff when there is still little to no chance to compete. Im very confident Elias will make moves to find higher quality rotation and BP arms in the near future. There is no need to invest the money or other assets in mid rotation arms this offseason.

#23 Mackus

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 10:34 AM

I didn't expect that they'd even bring in the one guy, so I even moreso don't expect them to sign another.  Hope they confound my expectations again.

 

Also Wow, I just went back and looked at all the Orioles starters from 2021.  Means and Chris Ellis were the only pitchers to make a start for the Orioles who had an ERA under 5 for the season.  Zimmerman and Lakins are the only other guys who were under 6.  That accounts for 46 of 162 starts.  That means that 116 games were started by a pitcher who had an ERA over 6!!  That is freaking amazing.  I knew it was really bad, but the ways in which the badness can be defined continue to astound.  It's like talking about Chris Davis' performance over recent years, constantly finding new ways to describe how horrible it is.



#24 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 10:37 AM


Again, I get behind trying to do the bare minimum to be competant every year but everyone is jumping off a cliff when there is still little to no chance to compete. Im very confident Elias will make moves to find higher quality rotation and BP arms in the near future. There is no need to invest the money or other assets in mid rotation arms this offseason.

In regards to my last sentence. Again, if you can get mid rotation arms or potential mid rotation arms on 1 year deals to come to Baltimore this year then by all means do it. Thats just not going to happen. Theyre most likely getting multi year deals and if not they arent looking to come to the Os for a year.

#25 Mackus

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 10:39 AM

In the past 20 seasons only the '20 Tigers (short season), '03 Rangers, and '05 Tigers had a worse combined ERA from starting pitchers than the 5.99 ERA for Orioles starters in 2021.

 

It's the 8th worst in the past 50 years.


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#26 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 10:40 AM

In the past 20 seasons only the '20 Tigers (short season), '03 Rangers, and '05 Tigers had a worse combined ERA from starting pitchers than the 5.99 ERA for Orioles starters in 2021.

It's the 8th worst in the past 50 years.

Yeah, I noted in Sept they were aiming to have a team ERA over 6 which was extremely rare. I guess they just barely snuck in under.

#27 Mackus

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 10:43 AM

Bundy signed with the Twins for 1/$5M and a 2023 option.  Similar deal.  Will be interesting to track which guys were available, see who we may have preferred, and then find out who actually pitches well.  Most will struggle, as is the norm for guys on cheap 1-year deals, but some will actually be good.  Hope Elias picks right.

 

Rich Hill signed with Red Sox for 1/$5M with $3M in incentives.

 

James Paxton signed with Red Sox for 1/$6M with two $13M team options (and a $4M player option for 2023).

 

Alex Wood signed with SF for 2/$25M.

 

Nick Martinez (31 y/o, pitched last 4 years in NPB) signed with SD for 4/$20M with opt-outs after 2022 and 2023.



#28 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 10:44 AM


Bundy signed with the Twins for 1/$5M and a 2023 option. Similar deal. Will be interesting to track which guys were available, see who we may have preferred, and then find out who actually pitches well. Most will struggle, as is the norm for guys on cheap 1-year deals, but some will actually be good. Hope Elias picks right.

Not just about who Elias prefers.I can say without a doubt Id prefer Bundy for 5 over Lyles for 7 but Im betting big that Dylan has zippo interest coming back to this park in this division.

#29 russsnyder

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 11:09 AM

I agree with 2035 that there really is no such think as a bad one year deal.

Lyles has not been good, but he takes the ball every fourth or fifth day and eats up some innings.

I guess this is what you get for 7 million nowadays.
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#30 russsnyder

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 11:10 AM

In the past 20 seasons only the '20 Tigers (short season), '03 Rangers, and '05 Tigers had a worse combined ERA from starting pitchers than the 5.99 ERA for Orioles starters in 2021.

It's the 8th worst in the past 50 years.


It was definitely difficult to watch.
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#31 NewMarketSean

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 11:56 AM

5.60 ERA in the AL. Probably going to be worse in the ALE.

 

Doubt he comes close to 180 IP. Seems more like a release candidate in July.


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#32 BaltBird 24

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 12:14 PM

You can count on Lyles to be pretty bad, but at least not as horrifically bad as everyone we saw in 2021 not named Means or Zimmermann.

I still wouldn't have signed him for $7 million, though.

#33 NewMarketSean

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 12:24 PM

You can count on Lyles to be pretty bad, but at least not as horrifically bad as everyone we saw in 2021 not named Means or Zimmermann.

I still wouldn't have signed him for $7 million, though.


Nah. He'll be about as bad as Harvey. Probably pitch around the same amount of innings too before he gets "injured".


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#34 BaltBird 24

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 12:25 PM


Nah. He'll be about as bad as Harvey. Probably pitch around the same amount of innings too before he gets "injured".


I think he'll be worse than Harvey, which is scary because Harvey spent 3/4's of the year tossing batting practice to the opposing teams.

#35 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 12:28 PM

He had a -.2 WAR in 2020, and a flat .00 WAR in 2021. So a replacement level pitcher is worth $7M these days eh?

 

Well, that's $7M NOT in the Angelos pockets, so I'm good with it. I'd be fine with it if he never actually throws a pitch in an Orioles uniform, just for that reason.

 

I just spent a good bit of time perusing his peripherals. It's bad. There's NOTHING to see here, except a lot of home runs at Camden Yards upcoming.


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#36 BaltBird 24

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 12:31 PM

I always thought a good rule of thumb was every 1 WAR was worth about $5 million.

So considering Lyles, at best 0 WAR, and realistically a NEGATIVE WAR..... he should be basically free.

#37 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 12:42 PM

I always thought a good rule of thumb was every 1 WAR was worth about $5 million.

So considering Lyles, at best 0 WAR, and realistically a NEGATIVE WAR..... he should be basically free.

Sure, but is that what you want for the Angelos family? Free labor? 


“We have a shot at a wild card right now. But it is not a probability that we're going to win a wild card.” -2022 Trade Deadline

"It's liftoff from here" - after selling on 2022

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"I think it's really hard to sit there and chart a course and say, 'We're likely to win the division.'" - Winter Meetings 2022

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#38 Mackus

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 12:47 PM


Nah. He'll be about as bad as Harvey. Probably pitch around the same amount of innings too before he gets "injured".

 

 

I think he'll be worse than Harvey, which is scary because Harvey spent 3/4's of the year tossing batting practice to the opposing teams.

 

I think he'll be better than Harvey was in 2021 and would be in 2022.  Certainly a chance he's worse though.  Nothing even close to sure things with any pitchers that cost less than $20M a year.



#39 BaltBird 24

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 12:53 PM

I feel bad for all the crap I gave Steve Trachsel back in the day. That man gave us a 1.9 WAR and pitched to a 4.48 ERA. What happened to that age of pitching?

Now it's either pay $20 million for someone sort of reliable or give some dumpster dive $7 million.

#40 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 01:40 PM

I feel bad for all the crap I gave Steve Trachsel back in the day. That man gave us a 1.9 WAR and pitched to a 4.48 ERA. What happened to that age of pitching?

Now it's either pay $20 million for someone sort of reliable or give some dumpster dive $7 million.

Meh. We payed 4.5 mil between '07-'08 for Trachsel to give us 180 innings and an ERA+ of 86. 7 mil in '21 for likely no worse and possibly a bit better seems like a deal!




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