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Jordan Lyles


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#1 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 12:18 AM

1/ $7 mil club option for '23

 

 

Mackus your 10 mil prediction not looking great.  :grin:



#2 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 12:22 AM

And yeah he sucks but hes proven he can eat innings. People thought it would be all ML minimum guys like Harvey. Hes an upgrade to Harvey(probably).

#3 hallas

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 02:42 AM

This signing makes me question Elias' competence. Eating innings isn't all that valuable if you aren't semi competent in doing so. We're paying 7 million to a guy whose ceiling is maybe a strand of hair over replacement.

If this is going to be the quality of our depth signings then I don't think there is a world where we make the playoffs under Elias. 0 upside guys for this much money is just absurd.
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#4 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 03:29 AM

You cant get pitchers to sign in Baltimore on 1 yr deals. Other than Coors/Colorado youd pick any other team. So it doesnt surprise me it takes 7 mil on a 1 yr deal to get a reliably crappy innings eater to sign. The fact that he signs in Nov may be telling. Now, maybe Elias overpaid by 3 or 4 mil compared to what he would have got elsewhere but again what is the tax for getting a 31 yr old to sign a 1 yr deal here vs any other club.

#5 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 03:40 AM

I see no reason to go sign the Steven Matz or Stroman types this offseason. Granted Strowman is a tier or two up from Matz but there are tons of pitchers like these two that you can trade for 2 or 3 years from now when you flip the switch. Guys like Bundy and Cobb as well. Itll take some assets in the form of minor leaguers/prospects but nothing thats going to raid your farm system. And you dont have to take on any risk except for whats left on the contract. Of course you also continue to try on the FA market as well but I really think this is the plan. Someone talked recently about having 3 or 4 mid rotation starters as the pitching staff. Thats the best way to go get them IMO outside of developing internally. Go get a Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb, Steven Matz, Marcus Strowman(youll likely pay more here but again shouldnt be drastic) next offseason through trade. The one thing where I agree with dude is that you look to deal and I honestly think Elias will acquire pieces as much or more through trade than FA. I just dont feel there is any need to go get any/many of these guys now.

#6 hallas

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 03:58 AM

You cant get pitchers to sign in Baltimore on 1 yr deals. Other than Coors/Colorado youd pick any other team. So it doesnt surprise me it takes 7 mil on a 1 yr deal to get a reliably crappy innings eater to sign. The fact that he signs in Nov may be telling. Now, maybe Elias overpaid by 3 or 4 mil compared to what he would have got elsewhere but again what is the tax for getting a 31 yr old to sign a 1 yr deal here vs any other club.


I don't buy for a second that OPACY park effects are that big of a detriment. Fenway is worse than OPACY. Washington and Philly are just behind the Os in park effects. None of those teams have problems signing pitchers, one year deals or otherwise.

#7 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 04:39 AM


I don't buy for a second that OPACY park effects are that big of a detriment. Fenway is worse than OPACY. Washington and Philly are just behind the Os in park effects. None of those teams have problems signing pitchers, one year deals or otherwise.

They also are usually contenders and two of them dont have a DH(for now). Its OPACY combined with the fact we are in the ALE, combined with being non contenders.

#8 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 04:40 AM

Its also a 1 yr deal and a team option. No 1 year deal is a bad deal and neither are team options.

#9 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 06:27 AM

He would’ve easily been our second best pitcher last year. That’s pretty sad but he will at least help the bullpen with innings. Now sign one more similar type starter - I’d prefer Michael Pineda.

#10 BaltBird 24

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 07:06 AM

A guy with a career 5.21 ERA is somehow a massive upgrade to our pitching staff. He was really, really good for Milwaukee during an 11 game stretch a couple of years ago.

#11 Mackus

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 07:53 AM

Woah!  Get two more of these guys and maybe we can keep the team ERA under 5 1/2.

 

Much bigger financial commitment than I was expecting, so glad they are on pace to meet the absolute lowest of possible expectations.


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#12 dude

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 08:59 AM

...because it's the Orioles, let's start off with some suspicion.

 

Someone tell me what the odds are that he doesn't pass his physical before I bet on it.

 

The Orioles have been the least active team on the FA market in the last 3+ years and done absolutely nothing to indicate they are even trying to do anything and then...hours before the lockout, they announce that they are signing a 31-year old starter with a career ERA over 5.00 to a 1-year deal.  So close to the lockout that they can't even complete a physical so we (and everyone else) gets to believe that the Orioles are being 'more active' at this point.

 

The Orioles will 'have signed' a guy for however long the lockout lasts...they are probably the poster child for what the MLBPA is arguing against in terms of non-competitive behavior.  The fans have looked for some sign of life and...nothing....but wait, THE ORIOLES ALIVE and that is literally the last MLBTR action prior to the transaction suspension.

 

Of course he fails the physical on [whenever] and the signing isn't completed, but hey, everyone got to stare at it for a couple months.  Nobody was confused by 01 DEC, right?  The Orioles were the ONLY team not to be able to complete something?



#13 dude

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 09:12 AM

I don't know why, in 2022, we'd rather see Jordan Lyles than the myriad of starting pitchers we have on the roster.

 

...as has been discussed many times, we're supposed to have this big group of starting pitchers that we need to consider for the future.  They have to pitch to see if they have anything in their FOURTH YEAR of development in this system.  We're supposed to be the team getting more out of guys and how has that worked so far?

 

Kremer, Baumann, Bradish, Zimmermann, Akin, Lowther, Wells, Smith are all AAA/ML starters that have typically struggled so far, but we're not competitive and we talk about figuring these guys out, but they need to pitch to figure it out.  Innings challenges should be more normal in 2022 a full year after the shortened season.



#14 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 09:18 AM

...because it's the Orioles, let's start off with some suspicion.

Someone tell me what the odds are that he doesn't pass his physical before I bet on it.

The Orioles have been the least active team on the FA market in the last 3+ years and done absolutely nothing to indicate they are even trying to do anything and then...hours before the lockout, they announce that they are signing a 31-year old starter with a career ERA over 5.00 to a 1-year deal. So close to the lockout that they can't even complete a physical so we (and everyone else) gets to believe that the Orioles are being 'more active' at this point.

The Orioles will 'have signed' a guy for however long the lockout lasts...they are probably the poster child for what the MLBPA is arguing against in terms of non-competitive behavior. The fans have looked for some sign of life and...nothing....but wait, THE ORIOLES ALIVE and that is literally the last MLBTR action prior to the transaction suspension.

Of course he fails the physical on [whenever] and the signing isn't completed, but hey, everyone got to stare at it for a couple months. Nobody was confused by 01 DEC, right? The Orioles were the ONLY team not to be able to complete something?

The crap you put your head through to come up with some of this stuff.
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#15 dude

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 09:20 AM

I don't specifically have an issue with Lyles.  If you actually do what to add some stability to the rotation in terms of modest innings, ok, I'm not sure how he's really any better than Matt Harvey, but whatever. 

 

Is he your Charlie Morton?  Morton was signed by the Astros to a surprising contract in 2017 for 7M per with an option and the industry was confused.  Seemed like an odd overpay for that guy then he absolutely blew up.  Could that be Jordan Lyles?  

 

Hey, I guess we can hope so, but where is the competitive opportunity if he does become Morton?  You still have giant holes on the left side of the infield and would some more floor and ceiling ( in other positions) to even start considering a shocking run by a 75 win team.



#16 dude

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 09:25 AM

Buffer for innings if Means is traded? 

 

More stable bridge to leave GRod in build up?

 

Something else?  ....but it's not to have a more competitive Orioles team in 2022 because he doesn't accomplish that....so why the suddenly out-of-character move?



#17 Mackus

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 09:39 AM

He gives up a ton of home runs.  What's odd is that his years in Colorado were by far his best years at preventing that.  0.93 HR/9 as a Rockie, 1.49 HR/9 everywhere else.  1.89 the past two years in Texas.  League average last year was 1.26 HR/9. 

 

35 bombs is in play for him in Baltimore if he can pitch enough innings.

 

Bizarre signing.  Glad they're spending some miniscule amount but this is a strange guy to spend it on, or to spend that much of it on.  They need 2 better guys to avoid being completely embarrassing.  Lyles gives you some insurance against a rotation spot with a 7 ERA, but he provides no upside at all.



#18 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 09:47 AM

He gives up a ton of home runs. What's odd is that his years in Colorado were by far his best years at preventing that. 0.93 HR/9 as a Rockie, 1.49 HR/9 everywhere else. 1.89 the past two years in Texas. League average last year was 1.26 HR/9.

35 bombs is in play for him in Baltimore if he can pitch enough innings.

Bizarre signing. Glad they're spending some miniscule amount but this is a strange guy to spend it on, or to spend that much of it on. They need 2 better guys to avoid being completely embarrassing. Lyles gives you some insurance against a rotation spot with a 7 ERA, but he provides no upside at all.

There is no downside at all. Look, we know who he is but its possible he puts together a 95-105 ERA+ season and you can pick up the option and keep or trade him.



#19 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 09:58 AM

I dont know how anyone doesnt buy into the Baltimore effect on pitchers. Its not just the young guys who came up through the system who either flame out or m9ve on and succeed elsewhere. Look at vets like Miley and Cobb and what they do outside of Baltimore vs what they do here.

#20 Mackus

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Posted 02 December 2021 - 10:15 AM

There is no downside at all. Look, we know who he is but its possible he puts together a 95-105 ERA+ season and you can pick up the option and keep or trade him.

 

The practical downside is that it's $7M that they won't spend on someone else.  If it's Lyles or nobody, sure, I'll take Lyles.  And it's entirely possible that he ends up as one of the better profiles among guys who sign in the $5-10M range.  He's more of a sure bet for slightly-below-mediocre performance rather than someone like Archer in recent years who has higher upside but also could be complete disaster or not even pitch.  Lyles isn't really the point, he's fine, maybe they paid too much, but that doesn't matter unless this is all the money they're willing to spend.

 

Go get two more guys.  Means, 3 mediocre FAs on cheap deals, and one young guy (Zimmerman or Baumann leaders entering ST) in the opening day rotation is good with me.  Good is the wrong word, but it's at least meeting the bare minimum to pretend like you're a real MLB team, which we haven't done in recent years.  People will get hurt and/or struggle and plenty of starts will become available for guys like Bradish, Smith, Akin, Kremer, and others.  Also can us those guys in the pen.  And then Rodriguez is given a spot whenever he needs it.






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