188 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Not sure I buy into the surgery now vs a month or two down the road doesn't make a difference as far as when he could return. Since it is a partial tear then the level of surgical procedure is less than the full meal deal and seems like he could have that kind of surgery and still pitch next season?

 

I don't think this is correct.  The surgery is essentially the same whether its a full tear or a partial that requires surgery.  They don't rebuild the originally torn ligament, so the severity of the tear doesn't really matter.  They harvest a tendon from elsewhere on your body (or from a donor), drill some holes in your two arm bones, and then tie the harvested tendon through the holes to re-connect your bones to each other like the old, torn tendon used to do.  

[makoman]

I don't think this is correct.  The surgery is essentially the same whether its a full tear or a partial that requires surgery.  They don't rebuild the originally torn ligament, so the severity of the tear doesn't really matter.  They harvest a tendon from elsewhere on your body (or from a donor), drill some holes in your two arm bones, and then tie the harvested tendon through the holes to re-connect your bones to each other like the old, torn tendon used to do.  

Exactly, my understanding is if you have the surgery you have the surgery. Quick googling (but old article) says that the record for pitchers was 11 months, but usually it's more like 13-14. Harper came back in 6 months but mostly at DH. And while better than the past, I still think the chances of full recovery are only like 85-90%, so people shouldn't be nonchalant about just having the surgery to get it over with.

 

I will say, I am talking out of my butt completely here, but nowadays we are laser focused on "UCL tear." It might be the case that in the past these things, if just a very minor tear, might have been just reported as a "sprained elbow" and nobody would have really noticed an issue of taking off two months and coming back fine.

[Mike B]

I think we will hear Felix is going to have the surgery in the next few weeks.  They will not risk his career, having him pitch again, even in the playoffs.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Would it risk his career?  Wouldn't the worst case be that he tears his UCL further, and would need the exact same surgery that he would get now?

[Mike B]

Would it risk his career?  Wouldn't the worst case be that he tears his UCL further, and would need the exact same surgery that he would get now?

I think that would be a mistake.  The Orioles will protect him, even if he wants to pitch.  JMO.

 

I was holding out hope that it wasn't a tear, but when I heard the comments from Elias, I think they should shut him down.

[Mackus]

Would it risk his career?  Wouldn't the worst case be that he tears his UCL further, and would need the exact same surgery that he would get now?

 

It would risk his career if he could have have healed it naturally with rest, rehab and other non-surgical approaches that end his season this year, but that by pushing to try and get back and pitch in the postseason he damages it further and then has to have the surgery.  The surgery can be career-ending or very career-altering, even though we're becoming more accustomed to guys returning to similar level of production.

 

It'd be pretty tough to know if he was always going to have to require surgery or if trying to come back doomed him.  But the non-surgical approach is far less long-term risk to his career than the other.  The question is just if its actually a viable path to recovery.  Seems like a pretty small percentage of UCL injuries are minor enough to not need surgery, but like makoman suggested, maybe we're just blind to those because they're categorized as "forearm strain" or "elbow pain" other not explicitly identified as a partially torn ligament.

[makoman]

We can all have opinions, but most of us aren't doctors and none of us have seen his MRI, so none of us can really have informed opinions about whether or not he should pitch. IMO. So I don't agree with those making definitive statements. They'll have to make a decision and I hope the player and doctors and team will do what's best for him, whatever that is. I will say again that Elias is pretty risk averse so I don't think he'll risk losing him for a whole year for a few innings, if that's the calculus and if the risk is significant. Especially since there's not much guarantee those innings are better than a replacement if he's actually still injured. Like if he ramps up and is only hitting 94 he's not going to try and pitch in games and he wouldn't be the guy we're used to anyway.

[85Knight]

I don't think this is correct. The surgery is essentially the same whether its a full tear or a partial that requires surgery. They don't rebuild the originally torn ligament, so the severity of the tear doesn't really matter. They harvest a tendon from elsewhere on your body (or from a donor), drill some holes in your two arm bones, and then tie the harvested tendon through the holes to re-connect your bones to each other like the old, torn tendon used to do.

The doctor in the previous post mentioned a repair vs. a reconstruction. If he pitches with a partial tear and it gets worse then this will have been a really bad decision. These decisions will have to be made by the experts but at the end of the day I think they'll keep his longterm health at the forefront.

[makoman]

The doctor in the previous post mentioned a repair vs. a reconstruction. If he pitches with a partial tear and it gets worse then this will have been a really bad decision. These decisions will have to be made by the experts but at the end of the day I think they'll keep his longterm health at the forefront.

I wasn't aware of repair really being an option, so here is the first link I saw. Seems like the results and time line are far better, though it's not available all the time, depends on the tear, and the sample size is still low as it's pretty new.

 

https://www.armoredh...n-vs-ucl-repair

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Look the difference between even 99 and even 96 or 97 is pretty big for Felix. Let alone if there is even more dip in velo. I jist dont think he can be close to himself. But then again coming back from TJ if he is only 95 or 96 which is very possible that also has a big effect on him.

[85Knight]

The news keeps getting better but he's still got a ways to go. He's throwing long toss and actually throwing pitches off of flat ground. I guess as long as he progresses they'll keep pushing. When he's throwing off of a mound I'll start to get excited.

I still say if all this means is he doesn't need surgery and comes back next season what a major win that would be.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The news keeps getting better but he's still got a ways to go. He's throwing long toss and actually throwing pitches off of flat ground. I guess as long as he progresses they'll keep pushing. When he's throwing off of a mound I'll start to get excited.

I still say if all this means is he doesn't need surgery and comes back next season what a major win that would be.

Its nice to hear but really how much has him being out cost us? Right now it wouldn't matter if we had 12 Feliz's. Our bats are stone cold.

[85Knight]

Its nice to hear but really how much has him being out cost us? Right now it wouldn't matter if we had 12 Feliz's. Our bats are stone cold.

You're exactly right. We haven't lost one single game because of his absence. The minute we do though it'll be the talk of the town. I just hope we have him next year.

[mweb08]

Bullpen session! At least kinda.

https://twitter.com/...Jqv7ZCn2sg&s=19

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Obv something could happen and they end up shutting him down at an point. I think the secondary concern would be that he just doesnt have tge same stuff. AAA ends next week too so they can do simulated games and things like that but he wouldnt be able to get in any real games on a rehab assignment

[BobPhelan]

Three days in a row throwing, let’s see what happens.

[85Knight]

It's really looking like he's coming back. I'm guessing if he can actually pitch in a game or two by season's end then it'll be all systems go. Hopefully we don't need him too much if that happens. They definitely wouldn't be doing this if we weren't in the playoffs.

[Mike B]

It has to be tough for Felix not to pitch in a huge series like the one against Tampa.  He seems to be ramping up to get back.  I hope it is the wise thing for him, but I am anxious to see him on the mound.

[hallas]

Hopefully we clinch before the season ends so we can have him up for a game at the end of the year.

[Mackus]

Hopefully we clinch before the season ends so we can have him up for a game at the end of the year.

 

Not necessary.  He's eligible for the postseason.