1235 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

As I've mentioned before, there is a chance the new Collective Bargaining Agreement could look to alter the order of the draft, but that seems unlikely.

 

There is zero chance the new CBA alters the 2022 draft order.  

[BSLMikeLowe]

I don’t think altering the determination of the draft order is going to matter as far as mitigating tanking, if that’s what their objective is. It’s not like the NBA or NFL where you can more reliably project the top players. The motivation to tank in MLB is purely about money. Even if it meant picking 30th, it wouldn’t have altered the Orioles’ payroll by one dime.

[makoman]

I don’t think altering the determination of the draft order is going to matter as far as mitigating tanking, if that’s what their objective is. It’s not like the NBA or NFL where you can more reliably project the top players. The motivation to tank in MLB is purely about money. Even if it meant picking 30th, it wouldn’t have altered the Orioles’ payroll by one dime.

I don't think the league cares about tanking nearly as much as the Olneys and Heymans who see themselves as the arbiters of What's Good for Baseball. Of course the league would care if enough fan sentiment went against it, but I don't think we're there overall--despite what sentiment is on this board, I don't think fans really care unless it is their team doing the tanking.

[BSLMikeLowe]

I don't think the league cares about tanking nearly as much as the Olneys and Heymans who see themselves as the arbiters of What's Good for Baseball. Of course the league would care if enough fan sentiment went against it, but I don't think we're there overall--despite what sentiment is on this board, I don't think fans really care unless it is their team doing the tanking.

I think the anti-tanking movement is primarily player-driven. Such that there might be something in the next CBA to attempt to address it. I’m just saying I don’t thing changing the draft order will have any impact.

[Greg Pappas]

There is zero chance the new CBA alters the 2022 draft order.  

 

I'm just passing on what I've read. I've seen it more than the following examples, but I figured there's enough smoke to not outright dismiss the possibility.

From BaseballAmerica:

With the 2021 regular season wrapped up Sunday evening, we now have an idea of the 2022 draft order—as long as the current system remains in place next year, that is.
 

There is no guarantee that the current format of draft order will remain in place for the 2022 MLB Draft. The current collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1. The CBA sets the rules by which the draft is held, so a new CBA could lead to changes in how the draft order is determined as well as other draft rules.

 

 

From the BaltimoreSun:
 

The draft order, however, isn’t locked in for next year. Little is when it comes to the baseball landscape for beyond 2022, with the collective bargaining agreement set to expire Dec. 1 and the MLB Players Association and the league set to negotiate over a host of issues — competitive balance among them.

 

With the current system incentivizing teams to avoid good-faith efforts to field winning teams because the rewards for losing are so valuable, it stands to reason the players will try and remove the draw to fielding inexpensive and inexperienced rosters who can’t compete on a nightly basis from the infrastructure of the sport.

 

 

It would seem to be a massive concession from the league to change the draft order, though, and it’s hard to see the players matching that level of give-back on anything to make a change like this happen.

[dude]

I think the League changing the current instantiation of the 2022 draft order is extremely likely, right after the Orioles move to Nashville.

[Greg Pappas]

Please share your own mocks or ones you've found that have yet to be posted, thanks.

https://www.prospect...-mlb-mock-draft

1. Baltimore Orioles    Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan Academy

This may come as a surprise to some, but in terms of process and evaluation, it makes a whole lot of sense. We believe Jones is not only one of the most exciting talents in this class, but his profile also fits the Mike Elias Standard Operating Procedure.

 

Jones has every tool in the bag. The kid can hit, he’s an elite runner, there’s juice in the bat and he’s got a hose in the outfield. He’s every bit the athlete his father was and maybe more. Now, sure, it all clicked for his dad and that remains to be seen here, but Jones has all the building blocks necessary to be a star.

 

By the time the draft rolls around, maybe Jones is the presumptive 1.1 anyways, so the narrative here won’t fit. But if draft day arrives and Elias can save a chunk of change selecting Jones over other names at the top of this class, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen it. Maybe Jones is Elias’s Baltimore reboot of Carlos Correa.

 

James Madison outfielder Chase DeLauter might end up making some sense here too. That’d make it three straight years of college outfielders for the Elias regime. In this scenario, we see the Orioles GM jumping for upside and potential stardom.

 

 

https://baseballpros...t-mock-draft-1/

1. Baltimore Orioles:   Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly

Lee is a 6-foot-2, 205-pound switch-hitting shortstop who is a well-rounded player. His best traits are on the offensive side, as he is an aggressive hitter who loves to swing at the first pitch. He has respectable power, possesses an above-average hit tool and drives the ball to all fields.

[dude]

https://www.prospect...-mlb-mock-draft

 

Not sure I agree with a lot of Joe Doyle's analyses there.

 

My guess would be the AZ stopped caring about 1-1 because they know their guy will be there.

If we start a pool for the DBacks, I take Termarr Johnson.

 

It's also hard for me to believe that the Rangers will pass on Jace Jung.  His brother is one of their top prospects. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Jones does sound like a guy who could establish himself as a consensus or.near consensus #1

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If thats who Ari wants more power to them. They can have #1. Reserve the right to change my mind in 8 months but Im staying away from the small guy who profile at 2b at #1

[BSLRoseKatz]

Countering Vlad Jr with Andruw Jr is a good plan 

[JeremyStrain]

Countering Vlad Jr with Andruw Jr is a good plan 

I was about to say, if we don't hop on the Jr. train pretty soon, we are going to be buried by them.

 

It's funny that a couple months ago the other HS OF was the can't miss, no brainer 1.1 pick. (Elijah Green), but he's got some issues and he reminds me of another highly touted Elijah from a few years ago (Dukes). Sometimes pedigree is something you should put some stock in. It doesn't always work out (Ripken, Palmeiro) but there are a bunch of others right now...(Vlad, Bichette, Biggio).

 

Hearing that the younger Jones may be a gold glove CF in his own right is tempting, but it's also hard not to project some of what you know of their parents when you see that familial tag.

[RichardZ]

Not sure I agree with a lot of Joe Doyle's analyses there.

 

My guess would be the AZ stopped caring about 1-1 because they know their guy will be there.

If we start a pool for the DBacks, I take Termarr Johnson.

 

It's also hard for me to believe that the Rangers will pass on Jace Jung.  His brother is one of their top prospects. 

Are you seriously suggesting that Arizona was intentionally losing but decided to then win the last two games because they didn't care if they had the #2 pick instead of the #1 pick because here, 8 months before the draft, they already know how the draft is going to play out and know that the guy they really want is going to be there at #2?    Really?

[Mackus]

Are you seriously suggesting that Arizona was intentionally losing but decided to then win the last two games because they didn't care if they had the #2 pick instead of the #1 pick because here, 8 months before the draft, they already know how the draft is going to play out and know that the guy they really want is going to be there at #2?    Really?

 

I think it's also important to note for this scenario that they blew a 7-0 lead on the 3rd-to-last game of the season.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Dude gonna dude

[Greg Pappas]

I've not familiar with this site, but here is Through the Fence's mock: 

 

1. Baltimore Orioles: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy
   
   Much like 2020’s top pick Spencer Torkelson, Elijah Green has been the consensus number one pick in 2022 for quite some time now. Green is the sort of player scouts drool over. At 6’3″, 215 pounds, he already has a major league body. Think Barry Bonds swing with Ronald Acuna Jr.’s defense and speed. Plus-plus raw power, hit-ability is there. 70-arm with 70-run too. Come on! He’s about to become a star.

[BaltBird 24]

Be weary of any HS prospect who is compared to Barry Bonds. (Billy Rowell and his Bondsesque power.)

[Nigel Tufnel]

Keith Law:

 

James

1:05

How big a deal the DBACKS won the final game of season and pick second instead of first ?

 

Keith Law

1:06

History says it's a big deal, based on how much more valuable 1st overall picks have been than 2nd. In this particular draft, I think it might be less of a big deal, because the class looks deep up top in bats, and I don't think there is a clear 1-1 guy (yet).

[McNulty]

I've not familiar with this site, but here is Through the Fence's mock: 

 

 

Kevin Goldstein and a few others have said this guy was their 1-1 back in March (!!!).  He also said if he was in the 2021 draft, he would have him at 1-1 too.  

 

Obviously next season will tell us a lot, and he needs to be a generational type to take a RHH Corner OF guy, but keep an eye on his season in the spring.  

[Greg Pappas]

Kevin Goldstein and a few others have said this guy was their 1-1 back in March (!!!).  He also said if he was in the 2021 draft, he would have him at 1-1 too.  

 

Obviously next season will tell us a lot, and he needs to be a generational type to take a RHH Corner OF guy, but keep an eye on his season in the spring.  

 

Yeah, he's a special talent based on his tools and athleticism, but time will tell whether he seems worthy of #1 come late spring.  I like him a lot, as well as Druw Jones and Brooks Lee.  We could REALLY use a strong ToR starter at #1, but that's probably not likely.