1235 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I can't imagine that analysts are able to make as deep a dive into each player's player profile the way the teams are. If I had to guess which has the better read on talent and trajectory, I'm going with the teams all day, especially as it pertains to less high profile guys.

Lolz. But that 1st round. The slide round baby. If the Os go away from your favorite analysts rankings you lose your shit.

[BobPhelan]

Seeing lots of praise for the Orioles draft from guys I respect like Mason McRae and the Prospects Live team.

[Slidemaster]

Lolz. But that 1st round. The slide round baby. If the Os go away from your favorite analysts rankings you lose your shit.

But they didn't. They made the right decision.

[dude]

1) OVERALL: I have no issues with the Orioles draft.   There's always things I'd like to see but the draft is the draft and you get judged by the choices you make.

 

2) I was wrong about who they would pick at 1-1.  Not that it matters, I find Elias comments interesting.  Maybe later.

 

3) I think they are locked into the guys they think they can make better than they appear.  Maybe there's value in that, but it seems like a macro commitment that may lead you away from guys that could be better, but maybe not the delta you can produce from development.  You don't actually get any points for shocking others with your development, that's actually not a metric and if you're capable of it, there's an entire draft to be sneaky.

 

4) More of a general comment, but can come back to the Orioles.  The Rangers pulled something off.  I talk about doing stuff like that all of the time, but some put crazy labels on it like it's illegal or something.  Other teams can cut you off, but you can still put it together.  The Rangers got the top HS arm in the draft to pick 109.  We'll see what happens, but brilliant for a team that lost several early picks.

 

I'd just point out someone like Jud Fabian.  I don't know what he's going to get, but if you're pulling together a couple million for him, you can probably take him anywhere.  If he's interested in Baltimore, play that same game.  If you get burned, so what.  If it works, great.  Be an early mover on stuff like this, it's going to have to get reigned in, use it until it does.

 

Everyone saw that and I'd guess MLB will need to do something like putting a max bonus on different rounds (something) to prevent players/agents from getting crazy with this.  Bottom line is that wherever you draw lines, teams will try to figure out how to hang out over those lines.  Then you redraw them as if that's going to stop the adjustments to the new line.  That will ALWAYS happen.

 

5) I thought mlb.com did a pretty good job in their rankings.  Obviously guys aren't ever going in order, but you had the top of the board cleaned off pretty well at a number of early points in the draft.  The HS kids have some different perspectives so they are going to litter the top and there isn't the total money to hit their demands....but if you were watching the undrafted list, there was some reasonable alignment with selections overall.

[dude]

Couple more thoughts and player comments.

 

The Orioles only took 2 HS kids out of the 20 selections.  One of them was 1-1.  I've had different theories on it, but there's something bigger going on there.  Maybe they just don't trust HS kids in the system with some money.  I used to think it was just about creating an older, more competitive system for your overall development perspective.  I don't know.  They've had some success with HS kids and I just can't believe they are so limited in which kids they think they can bump with development.

 

2-42) They could have taken Connor Prielipp here.  Nothing against Max, but this feels like the Nolan Jones situation they didn't leverage or the Hays situation they did.  He's a kid many of us were hoping would get to 33.  If you're committed to Beavers at 33, ok, but when Prielipp is there at 42, you have to pop him.

 

CB-B) I commented earlier on Fabian, if he's a guy you can force down the board, do something else here.

 

3-81) I find the McLean pick interesting. Seems like a kid you could work as a 2-way player.  Real potential with the bat but a big arm too.  Having a RHed 1B/3B/DH bench bat with some pop AND a power RHed arm out of the bullpen could be a weapon.  Lorenzen did this too, this side of Ohtani.  Like a combination of Nevin and Tate....essentially gives you a 27-man roster.

 

4-107) Another ML bloodline.  If they were looking for a RHed defensive catcher in this draft, OK....but VaTech's Cade Hunter was taken more than a round later.  Less D but more Hit off a LHed platform.  More interesting to me.  Something to compare over time.

[dude]

I'm breaking these in groups because people lack quoting discipline.

 

rds 6-10 were boring but that's kind of expected with more of a slot draft. 

 

I agree with the strategy of grabbing limited profiles that can serve a role.  Hodo could be a 4th OFer...Crampton could be a defense first utility guy.  Johnson is a big guy with likely a bullpen profile, but if you can get some solid power arms, it gives you a chance to build a deep bullpen and create options.

 

Someone may have already provided this answer, but is 11-317) Zack Showalter related to Buck?

 

18-527) I really like the Andrew Walters pick here.  Literally a one-pitch power pitcher but it's a good one.  You just need to develop a second pitch with a wrinkle (change, cutter, anything) and you again have a potential bullpen weapon.  He can get to the Majors as fast as his second pitch allows him.  David Ross (1995, LAD, 10.0 WAR) and Jeff Reardon (1973, MON, 18.6 WAR) are the only two #527 picks to produce more than 1.0 career WAR.  Get to work kid. 

 

13-377) I don't know how gimmicky this was, but first 7-footer drafted (I think that's what they said).  You can't teach tall.  He's literally closer to the plate when he releases the ball.  There's some fascinating guys across this MLB Draft, but this is one to watch.  Maybe nothing, but hey...maybe we were just tired of losing underground offseason basketball to the Yankees.

 

The Dodgers took VA OFer Chris Newell (mlb.com #190) in the 13th rd (13-405).  Probably would have grabbed him, unless he's a terrible kid.

 

I'd like to see one higher end HS kid taken here (towards the end) and just total up whatever's left in the pot and offer it.  A guy like RHP Colby Holcombe (mlb.com #134) or OF Jayden Hylton (mlb.com #114) are guys to take a shot at.  The answer might be no, but make a pitch.

 

Again, no issues with draft, just comments.

[Mike in STL]

When will we know if they spent their entire draft budget?

[Chris B]

When will we know if they spent their entire draft budget?

August 1 is the signing deadline

[Nigel Tufnel]

Law:

 

MLB Draft report card: Keith Law dissects every AL team’s players - The Athletic

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles went with one of the best players available at pick 1, taking Jackson Holliday (1), the son of Matt Holliday, to kick off this year’s draft. It’s the first time Mike Elias has taken a high schooler with the first pick as GM, but most of the candidates for the No. 1 pick were high schoolers this year. Holliday did a lot of work on his body and swing this past offseason to go from a borderline first-rounder to legitimate top-of-the-draft prospect, showing great feel to hit with a pretty swing, emerging power and the potential to stay at shortstop.

 

The Orioles followed up with three college position players, although I wouldn’t say they played it safe. Dylan Beavers (1A) has power, some speed, and the potential to stay in center or play good defense in right; but he hasn’t hit for a ton of average due in part to a hitch in his swing. Max Wagner (2) came out of nowhere this spring to hit 27 homers for Clemson and walk nearly as much as he struck out, and was just barely draft-eligible as he won’t turn 21 until the second half of August. He’s a third baseman now but he’s below average there; more likely he ends up in an outfield corner. While everyone buys the power, there’s some disagreement over how much he’s going to hit for average and contact in pro ball. Jud Fabian (2A) is nearly 22 now, having turned down a large offer from the Red Sox in the second round last year, but he didn’t do enough to address his multiple holes at the plate. He’s a plus defender in center with 70 power, though, and that’s more than enough to take in the second round, even with what might be a present 35 hit tool.

 

The Orioles took Nolan McLean (3) as a pitcher, betting on his mid-90s fastball and that one of his secondaries will come along as he uses it more. His arm action is incredibly short, so while he can get sharp break on his curveball and slider, he has no consistency. He was a two-way guy for Oklahoma State, with 60-70 raw power but way too much swing and miss. Silas Ardoin (4), son of Danny, is a premium defensive catcher for Texas who rarely swings and misses but has no power and is probably a very good backup. Right-hander Trace Bright (5) is a senior sign who sits 92-94 mph but has had trouble throwing his secondary stuff for strikes — this is probably a pick to save some money. Centerfielder Douglas Hodo (6) looks like an extra outfielder who can clearly stay at the position and provide value on defense with some doubles power, but he may lack the thump or contact to be a regular, especially with trouble hitting breaking stuff in college.

[You Play to Win the Game]

The Orioles clearly have a player development program in place and believe in it. It’s evident based on many of these reviews, the O’s believe in their ability to coach and develop guys up. When you see the improvements across the board in the pitching staff, and the continued success of the position prospects, it’s understandable why they feel that way.

[Mackus]

No complaints from me on the drafting or the strategy. 

 

I'll complain if they end up once again not using any of the 5% overage they can dip into, but that's a bigger picture complaint of the trend over many years, not necessarily meaning to hit them hard in any one draft class and set of negotiation sessions.

[JeremyStrain]

Def an overslot. Probably significant overslot. Showalter as well

This is the ONE I don't give them great odds of signing, and probably the reference Ciolek was making. His brother is coming into Miami next year and he has been on record saying he wanted to play with him one year.

 

The flip side of that is another year at Miami and as a RP, does that really give him better odds next year? Where he is, his best bet his hit the pros, and move fast, and make his money that way. Just comes down to what his priorities are and how he views himself.

[Mackus]

Druw Jones agreed to a full slot deal with the Diamondbacks.  $8.19M.

[Mackus]

This is the ONE I don't give them great odds of signing, and probably the reference Ciolek was making. His brother is coming into Miami next year and he has been on record saying he wanted to play with him one year.

 

The flip side of that is another year at Miami and as a RP, does that really give him better odds next year? Where he is, his best bet his hit the pros, and move fast, and make his money that way. Just comes down to what his priorities are and how he views himself.

 

Will be interesting to see what he's asking for and what the O's can (or more accurately...are willing to) throw at him.  MLB ranked him #130, and bonuses in that draft area are slotted as about $450k.  That'd be a lot to turn down and hope to match or beat next year as a RP taken in the 2nd or 3rd round.  

[JeremyStrain]

WRT the high volume of college players taken this year, keep in mind this is one of the fallout years from COVID and the shortened draft a few years back. Guys that would have gone as HS kids, played the safe odds and went to school for a couple years, or didn't have a choice because of the lack of draft picks in that 5 round year.

 

It created a longer list of college players teams were watching for this year than in normal years. Add that to the whole college vs hs metrics thing they have and im not really shocked it ended up so imbalanced.

 

I'll be watching closely next year to see if things normalize a bit, but the domino effect of guys getting extra years of eligibility, and the shortened 2020 draft easily could have pushed more HS guys this year to college, and we could see a really deep college draft in 2024 or 2025 as well.

[JeremyStrain]

Will be interesting to see what he's asking for and what the O's can (or more accurately...are willing to) throw at him.  MLB ranked him #130, and bonuses in that draft area are slotted as about $450k.  That'd be a lot to turn down and hope to match or beat next year as a RP taken in the 2nd or 3rd round.  

Yeah, he's the most interesting one to me this year to see what he gets. Is he one of those guys that comes out as a top closer next year and goes late 1st or 2nd? That's about the BEST case scenario for him. He's he legit in really wanting to play with his brother or is that a leverage thing? Do they throw 800k at him and be like here you go bro, come blow through Delmarva and get some time at Aberdeen this season and shoot for Bowie next year.

[JeremyStrain]

Druw Jones agreed to a full slot deal with the Diamondbacks.  $8.19M.

Saw that. Saw that the numbers increased a little bit pick by pick too like days before the draft, I thought that was interesting too.

[Mackus]

WRT the high volume of college players taken this year, keep in mind this is one of the fallout years from COVID and the shortened draft a few years back. Guys that would have gone as HS kids, played the safe odds and went to school for a couple years, or didn't have a choice because of the lack of draft picks in that 5 round year.

 

Are you talking Orioles-specific or all MLB?  Were more college guys drafted this year than normal?  Wouldn't most HS guys who were undrafted in 2020 still not yet be eligible only 2 years later?

 

The O's under Elias take almost exclusively college every year.  In 2019 only Henderson and Hernaiz were taken from HS in the first 33 rounds (6 more taken 34-40 but none signed).  2020 only Baumler and Mayo were from HS (only 6 total picks due to Covid).  2021 Creed Willems was the only HS pick.  Holliday and Showalter the only HS picks this year.

 

That's 7 high school players taken in 70 total picks (excluding the 21st round onward from 2019).  10% of the picks.  Bonus-wise, not including this year since nobody has signed, they've used $6.95M out of a total allocation of $33M bonus pool, so 21% of their money.  That'll go up this year with Holliday to something like $16M of $49M allocation, or about 32% of the bonuses.  A third of their money going to HS players over a many year stretch feels reasonable to me, only 20% seems low.  The money is the better thing to track than the picks, IMO.

[Mackus]

Saw that the numbers increased a little bit pick by pick too like days before the draft, I thought that was interesting too.

 

I didn't see the reason for the increase, but I think it may be because of some lost picks by certain teams and the MLBPA wanting the allocated bonus to be spread around the other slots rather than just lost.  The increase was very small.  #2 slot for example went up $4300.

[JeremyStrain]

Are you talking Orioles-specific or all MLB?  Were more college guys drafted this year than normal?  Wouldn't most HS guys who were undrafted in 2020 still not yet be eligible only 2 years later?

 

The O's under Elias take almost exclusively college every year.  In 2019 only Henderson and Hernaiz were taken from HS in the first 33 rounds (6 more taken 34-40 but none signed).  2020 only Baumler and Mayo were from HS (only 6 total picks due to Covid).  2021 Creed Willems was the only HS pick.  Holliday and Showalter the only HS picks this year.

 

That's 7 high school players taken in 70 total picks (excluding the 21st round onward from 2019).  10% of the picks.  Bonus-wise, not including this year since nobody has signed, they've used $6.95M out of a total allocation of $33M bonus pool, so 21% of their money.  That'll go up this year with Holliday to something like $16M of $49M allocation, or about 32% of the bonuses.  A third of their money going to HS players over a many year stretch feels reasonable to me, only 20% seems low.  The money is the better thing to track than the picks, IMO.

Overall, not really the Os.

 

I've been hunting to get the overall percentage but haven't seen it posted and didn't really feel like finding a list to export to excel to track it myself, I figure it'll come out soon enough, it usually does.

 

Draft eligible sophomores would be in this years mix, but doubt that's a huge number, you're right, I was thinking 2019 was the beginning of that year, and thinking 2022 was 3 years, but the start of this year was 2021, so that's only 2 years out still. It's next year that should see the biggest swing.

 

I've had it on my radar since they did that weird short draft to see what the fallout was going to be.