193 replies to this topic

[Old Man]

He is pulling down a 3.2 war, which isnt superstar status level, but well above a replacement level player.

[Mike B]

He is pulling down a 3.2 war, which isnt superstar status level, but well above a replacement level player.

He does a lot of things that define difference maker, except for one very important thing.  Hit.

 

He needs to change his swing to insure more contact.  If he can consistently put the ball in play, he could run .250

[Mackus]

Going forward. Not for this year. Hes at 84 for this year. You taking the over or under 84 for '23. Over feels like its easily the right call

 

Over but only slightly.  If you set it at 87 I'd go under.  I think he's got more risk to be under 80 than upside to reach 95.

 

Again, he's a perfectly viable option for 2023.  Several of the options for good plans forward could have Mateo at SS.  I just think that the best options amongst that set of good plans tend to not have him at SS because we've replaced him with one of the big FAs.

[BobPhelan]

@enosarris

Most likely free agents at shortstop this offseason, by arm strength (https://baseballsava...s=arm_inf&team=)

Carlos Correa 88.2 mph
Trea Turner 83.7 mph
Xander Bogaerts 82.2 mph
Dansby Swanson 79.2 mph

League average at short is 85.9 mph.

Last year, Trevor Story had a 79.1 mph arm.

https://twitter.com/...203002708729857

[Mike B]

@enosarris

Most likely free agents at shortstop this offseason, by arm strength (https://baseballsava...s=arm_inf&team=)

Carlos Correa 88.2 mph
Trea Turner 83.7 mph
Xander Bogaerts 82.2 mph
Dansby Swanson 79.2 mph

League average at short is 85.9 mph.

Last year, Trevor Story had a 79.1 mph arm.

https://twitter.com/...203002708729857

Good stuff.

I don't think Turner and Bogaerts are  anymore than average at SS.  I much prefer a plus defender at SS.  I also think range becomes more important if the shift is dumped.  Mateo can not hit, but he can field and run.  Take the 25-30 M a year that it would take to sign one of these and get a good starting pitcher.  JMO.

I could easily be talked into Swanson though.

[Mackus]

@enosarris

Most likely free agents at shortstop this offseason, by arm strength (https://baseballsava...s=arm_inf&team=)

Carlos Correa 88.2 mph
Trea Turner 83.7 mph
Xander Bogaerts 82.2 mph
Dansby Swanson 79.2 mph

League average at short is 85.9 mph.

Last year, Trevor Story had a 79.1 mph arm.

https://twitter.com/...203002708729857

 

Is average throw speed really that relevant at all for an infielder?  I know arm strength is very important, but I don't think every throw matters.  Much (most?) of the time these guys field a grounder, they don't need to chuck it as hard as they can.  Some guys may take a lot more off when they don't need it than others, making the overall numbers kind of meaningless.  Would be like if you looked at OPS for a guy who sac bunted 1/3 of his at bats without accounting for that.

 

I think the average of some percentage of hardest throws is probably more relevant than averaging every throw.  Kind of like a golf handicap.  No idea what percentile that should be.

[makoman]

I think the average of some percentage of hardest throws is probably more relevant than averaging every throw.  Kind of like a golf handicap.  No idea what percentile that should be.

That's what they do, you should have clicked the link

 

They average the top 1% of 1B throws, top 5% of other IF, top 10% of OF.  

[CantonJester]

Not committing to him long term does not equate to them not believing he was going to be productive moving forward.

 

You said:

 

 I do think Bogaerts, Correa, and Turner have many >125 OPS+ seasons left in them.

 

If Houston honestly felt Correa had many seasons beyond 125 OPS+ seasons left in his tank, they would've either extended him or matched an offer. That offer wasn't there because it goes against their organizational philosophy of signing any player beyond 5 years. Hell, they didn't even match Minnesota's offer of three years (and two opt-outs). They'd rather go with a relatively unknown. 

 

It's interesting to note Correa is rumored to have turned down a 10y/275m offer from the Tigers just before the lockout. After the lockout, a similar offer was nowhere to be found. 

[Mackus]

I don't agree with the logic. Houston could easily think Correa had several good season left and still thought his cost was too high for their structure.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Houston offered a 5 yr deal to Correa.

[CantonJester]

Houston offered a 5 yr deal to Correa.

 

Rumored 5y/$125m. That's not a good faith offer and you know it. 

[CantonJester]

I don't agree with the logic. Houston could easily think Correa had several good season left and still thought his cost was too high for their structure.

 

Then why not match the Twins' offer? 

 

I mean, whatever. The whispers surrounding Correa on a longterm deal are about how well his (lower) back will hold up. This isn't breaking news. 

[You Play to Win the Game]

Maybe they, wait for it… didn’t feel they needed him anymore at that price. And looks like they were right.

[CantonJester]

Maybe they, wait for it… didn’t feel they needed him anymore at that price. And looks like they were right.

 

Sensing a tone here. Anyway, I think you've got the cart ahead of the horse there. 

[Mackus]

Then why not match the Twins' offer? 

 

I mean, whatever. The whispers surrounding Correa on a longterm deal are about how well his (lower) back will hold up. This isn't breaking news. 

 

Same answer. 

 

I could hypothesize some examples of their thinking.  You yourself suggested a reason they may had not tried to sign him even if they thought he had quality time left.  But frankly we don't need to know the reason to be able to say that they very well could have still expected plenty of good production remaining from Correa but decided against a max dollar, long-term extension for other reasons.  

 

I'm not saying what I think the Astros thought about him. I'm saying that "they didn't think he had many good years left" isn't a conclusion that you can draw from the simple fact that they didn't sign him.  There are lots of other factors involved that could have driven the decision.  Did the Orioles not think Manny Machado had several good seasons left when they let him go?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Rumored 5y/$125m. That's not a good faith offer and you know it. 

 

5 / $160 was the offer.

[Mike B]

Does anyone else think Correa is over rated.  He is a good player, but not in a class with a guy like Manny.  JMO.  5/125 maybe light, but not the insult some think.  

[Nigel Tufnel]

He ended up signing for 3/105 (although with annual opt outs) so 5/160 wasn't too bad, I guess.

 

Here's his quote about remaining with the Twins after he opts out:

 

“When I go to the mall and I go to the Dior store, and I want something, I get it," Correa said. "I ask how much it costs, and I buy it. So, if you really want something, you just go get it. So, yeah, I’m the product here. If they want my product, they’ve just got to come get it.”

[dude]

I've made my FA SSs comments in Brad's SS Free Agent Market thread, so I won't repeat everything here.  I'd note that pulling the context of 6/100 for Swanson here is a little misplaced.  That's the Braves, not the Orioles.  If anyone gets to Swanson's agent (yes, outside the rules) and tells them they'd be interested the 150-175M range....he'll be a FA and take that type of a deal.  Otherwise, the GA kid playing on an annually competitive with a good group of players will figure it out where he is.  They've proven they'll let a guy go, it will be up to Swanson....but it won't be the Orioles.  Maybe a team like the RedSox considers something.

 

I'm all for Turner, Boegarts, or Swanson.  I don't want Correa under any condition.  I don't see a reason why any of these guys would force themselves into the Orioles box and the Orioles aren't playing at the top of the market.  We say these things (like improving a CO too) and using money and prospects to do things, but we could have had Juan Soto and we instead traded guys away and added nothing (ML roster).  Fun to dream, still a dream.

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It just comes down to whether you want to play Mateo or Henderson at SS.  I can go either way there.  Henderson is here for 4-6 years, so that factors in (not a long-term option).  Draft gives you a quality guy to project at SS in Holliday so how you bridge there is new since July.

 

Mateo can play SS.  Everyone isn't going to be an All-Star.  He plays good defense and the speed is interesting.  He's hitting 9th.  That's it.  Moving him backwards into a UT role is a less desirable option so if you want to do something else with SS, then trade him to AZ or MIA and do whatever.

 

Today, I'd lock 3B down with Henderson.  Use Mateo (ARB1) at SS with Ortiz as the Plan B waiting to see how fast I want to move Holliday (overlap with Henderson on the left side?)

 

That's easy, simple and cheap so that's right in the Orioles wheelhouse. 

[dude]

Correa had no market after the CBA was completed. He's going to be disappointed.

 

If you make me guess a Team for Correa, I'll take the Marlins.  They need to do something.  They are way behind on "Project Wolverine".