193 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Or Henderson if they wanted to go that route. I just think its gonna be Ortiz should Mateo fail. Assuming Ortiz isnt packaged this offseason. I dont agree with Stoner's assessment that Oritz doesnt and shouldnt play a factor.

Ortiz interests me. I'm not dismissing the possibility there. I'm just not afraid to get one of the FAs and not have a spot held for him.

[mweb08]

6 $150 - $175 for Swanson.
He might be the best player in the group.

Why are you seemingly convinced that this isn't an outlier season for him? He's been a below average bat in every other full season, although just barely in 2021.

Relatedly, I'd also want to do a batted ball analysis on any player, but especially right handed homerun hitters to see how the wall is likely to impact them.

[Mackus]

6 $150 - $175 for Swanson.
He might be the best player in the group.

And Mateo might be the best player on the O's next year...

Come on. He's not better than Correa, Bogaerts or Turner.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Exit velo, OOA, Hard hit %, Sprint speed, Barrel %. All give indication of the talent and doesn't scream blinking warning signs.

2021 probably a more likely version then 2022, going forward...but still very productive.

He's a well rounded player, which I like.

The others I think have a bit more offensive upside, but some defensive concerns. I like Correa a lot but not excited about 10 years with his back issues and trouble staying on the field.

[BobPhelan]

Rather stay in house than sign Swanson. But sign me up for any of the others.

[mweb08]

Exit velo, OOA, Hard hit %, Sprint speed, Barrel %. All give indication of the talent and doesn't scream blinking warning signs.

2021 probably a more likely version then 2022, going forward...but still very productive.

He's a well rounded player, which I like.

The others I think have a bit more offensive upside, but some defensive concerns. I like Correa a lot but not excited about 10 years with his back issues and trouble staying on the field.

If he can keep up what he's doing this season, he's certainly very enticing. The 2021 version of him is good, but isn't good enough to target with how I'd approach this off-season.

[BSLChrisStoner]

And Mateo might be the best player on the O's next year...

Come on. He's not better than Correa, Bogaerts or Turner.

 

Swanson:
fWAR '20 = 2.2

fWAR '21 = 3.4

fWAR '22 = 6.0

Total = 11.6

 

Correa

fWAR '20 = 1.2

fWAR '21 = 6.2

fWAR '22 = 4.2
Total = 11.6 

 

Bogaerts
fWAR '20 = 1.6

fWAR '21 = 4.3

fWAR '22 = 5.9

Total = 11.8

 

Turner
fWAR '20 = 2.7

fWAR '21 = 6.8

fWAR '22 = 5.8

Total = 15.3

 

Turner DOB 6/30/93

Correa DOB 9/22/94

Bogerts DOB 10/1/92
Swanson DOB 2/11/94

 

Percentile Rankings

Swanson
Avg Exit  Velo: 72  (#1 of 4)
Hard Hit: 81 (#1 of 4)
Barrel: 73 (#2 of 4)
Sprint Speed: 81 (#2 of 4)

OOA: 100 (#1 of 4)

 

Bogerts
Avg Exit Velo: 39

Hard Hit: 50
Barrel: 37
Sprint Speed: 66
OOA: 87

 

Correa
Avg Exit Velo: 68

Hard Hit: 69

Barrel: 83
Sprint Speed: 47
OOA: 17

 

Turner
Avg Exit Velo: 46
Hard Hit: 59
Barrel: 47
Sprint Speed: 100
OOA: 29

[mweb08]

Approach wise I don't love 176 strikeouts to 47 walks.

The power helps to offset that, but again, how much will that be impacted by the wall?

[mweb08]

Speaking of a batter's approach, one free agent that I might have interest in (would need to further examine) is walks machine Brandon Nimmo. He'd be an upgrade on Hays offensively and defensively.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Speaking of a batter's approach, one free agent that I might have interest in (would need to further examine) is walks machine Brandon Nimmo. He'd be an upgrade on Hays offensively and defensively.

Yeah he's a nice target.

[Mackus]

Swanson:
fWAR '20 = 2.2

fWAR '21 = 3.4

fWAR '22 = 6.0

Total = 11.6

 

Correa

fWAR '20 = 1.2

fWAR '21 = 6.2

fWAR '22 = 4.2
Total = 11.6 

 

Bogaerts
fWAR '20 = 1.6

fWAR '21 = 4.3

fWAR '22 = 5.9

Total = 11.8

 

Turner
fWAR '20 = 2.7

fWAR '21 = 6.8

fWAR '22 = 5.8

Total = 15.3

 

Turner DOB 6/30/93

Correa DOB 9/22/94

Bogerts DOB 10/1/92
Swanson DOB 2/11/94

 

Percentile Rankings

Swanson
Avg Exit  Velo: 72
Hard Hit: 81
Barrel: 73
Sprint Speed: 81

OOA: 100

 

Bogerts
Avg Exit Velo: 39

Hard Hit: 50
Barrel: 37
Sprint Speed: 66
OOA: 87

 

Correa
Avg Exit Velo: 68

Hard Hit: 69

Barrel: 83
Sprint Speed: 47
OOA: 17

 

Turner
Avg Exit Velo: 46
Hard Hit: 59
Barrel: 47
Sprint Speed: 100
OOA: 29

 

I see Swanson being clearly below the rest.  You have to treat 2020 as a full year in order to make his accrual stats seem close, that was a short season so I think the other guys would've risen well above him that year, as he comes back down to his typical production and the rest of the guys continue theirs, if it were a normal season, though of course we'll never know.  2nd youngest, so that's good, but 4th best.

 

Grading the defense is difficult, too, I don't necessarily just trust what Fangraphs puts out there but its probably the best I can do from afar.  If he's wildly better than everyone else, then maybe he's in the mix.  But...its still a no thanks unless he's all we can get from me.  The other guys are vastly superior options, IMO.  I'd happily pay double for them if needed.

[Mackus]

Bogerts

Avg Exit Velo: 39

Hard Hit: 50
Barrel: 37
Sprint Speed: 66
OOA: 87

 

Is this accurate?  I have a hard time believing that a guy who just constantly rakes (wRC+ 129-143 and OPS+ 128-135 each of the past 5 seasons) is well below average when it comes to exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate.  

[BSLChrisStoner]

Is this accurate?  I have a hard time believing that a guy who just constantly rakes (wRC+ 129-143 and OPS+ 128-135 each of the past 5 seasons) is well below average when it comes to exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate.  

 

He's 89 in Max Exit Velo.

 

https://baseballsava...t-r-hitting-mlb

[Mackus]

I don't know enough about those stats, but having a hard time reconciling how Bogaerts can rake so consistently if he's falling behind Swanson who has barely even been league average before this season in some of these stats.  Whatever the calculation is, Bogaerts consistently has a higher wOBA than xwOBA (actual to expected) and Swanson consistently has a lower actual than expected.  So I don't really know if I care about the expected wOBA when it comes to these two.

 

Bogaerts is going to hit better than Swanson moving forward.  I've got little doubt of that.  Pretty confident (enough to risk 2X the salary) on the same thing for all the others.

 

Swanson's glove is legit, no doubts there.  But so is Mateo's.  I'm not sure I think the offensive upgrade of low 600s for Mateo to mid 700s OPS for Swanson is worth the squeeze.  Well, it probably is, but I'd prefer to upgrade even more with a better hitter.  I do not think Swanson will ever have a 115 OPS+ season again (if he even does this year, he's currently below).  I do think Bogaerts, Correa, and Turner have many >125 OPS+ seasons left in them.

[CantonJester]

I don't know enough about those stats, but having a hard time reconciling how Bogaerts can rake so consistently if he's falling behind Swanson who has barely even been league average before this season in some of these stats.  Whatever the calculation is, Bogaerts consistently has a higher wOBA than xwOBA (actual to expected) and Swanson consistently has a lower actual than expected.  So I don't really know if I care about the expected wOBA when it comes to these two.

 

Bogaerts is going to hit better than Swanson moving forward.  I've got little doubt of that.  Pretty confident (enough to risk 2X the salary) on the same thing for all the others.

 

Swanson's glove is legit, no doubts there.  But so is Mateo's.  I'm not sure I think the offensive upgrade of low 600s for Mateo to mid 700s OPS for Swanson is worth the squeeze.  Well, it probably is, but I'd prefer to upgrade even more with a better hitter.  I do not think Swanson will ever have a 115 OPS+ season again (if he even does this year, he's currently below).  I do think Bogaerts, Correa, and Turner have many >125 OPS+ seasons left in them.

 

Houston didn’t.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Houston didn’t.

Not committing to him long term does not equate to them not believing he was going to be productive moving forward.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Getting back to Jorge for a second. I feel like this is pretty close to the worst he can be as an every day hitter. I dont think he has much of a chance of jumping up and being a 105 or higher OPS+ guy but consisently in the 90s very doable

[Mackus]

Houston didn’t.

Don't agree they didn't. And wrong so far, if they did.

[Mackus]

Getting back to Jorge for a second. I feel like this is pretty close to the worst he can be as an every day hitter. I dont think he has much of a chance of jumping up and being a 105 or higher OPS+ guy but consisently in the 90s very doable

He's not in the 90s or even particularly close to it.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

He's not in the 90s or even particularly close to it.

Going forward. Not for this year. Hes at 84 for this year. You taking the over or under 84 for '23. Over feels like its easily the right call