403 replies to this topic

[dude]

Hope we don't freak out if he has a slow week or two. 

 

This post isn't intended to be a freak out. He'll certainly get plenty of opportunity to right the ship, but it's not just the poor hitting results, it's how he appears in every aspect of the game right now.

 

Offense: .440 OPS sucks but it's been noted his slow starts.  His lone extra-base hit last night was a dunker down the LF-line that required a bad fielder to fall in.  Glad it worked out (W), but none of his 5 hits have been in the top-2 contact categories (barrel, hard hit).  His exit velo is below average (36).  He doesn't look confident at the plate.  The walks are good, but like Gunnar after some early 'waiting for the walk', many of of us said "hunt damage" and he really started to turn his offensive game around.

 

Early offensive struggles for a young player happen, but that's not what bothers me....

 

Defense: I think he's looked very mediocre (that may be generous) on defense.  He had multiple chances to make plays and all the pieces of execution just seem off.  That first play on Sac Fly was really poor.  Bad set up, approach, took too many steps then a weak throw.  Maybe the perspective of "CF quality" was too much or unfair, but his defense is more than a notch below what I thought was advertised....and that's something that's highly repeatable, regardless of level.

 

Baserunning: They had a shot the other night when he was rounding 3rd and scoring on (I think) a ball to RF.  I was surprised how slow he looked.  His sprint speed (Savant) has actually gone up a hair after I first looked at it, but while he's still listed as above average, he was below Hays, OHearn, Mountcastle, Vavra....now he's bumped up a little above Hays, but I don't think OHearn's experience is allowing him to run faster. Orioles Sprint Speed

 

Athleticism: He hasn't looked athletic to me.  For me, Westburg has, but my going in perception would have been the opposite of what we've seen.  Westburg has kinda looked like I thought Cowser would and vice versa. 

 

Regardless of the offensive side (if you switched their numbers, I think this would still be true...it's not an assessment of their hitting performance), it's their general play, defense, bases, everything Westburg has looked much more the part.  He seems fast and athletic and we've seen him make any number of good plays, I can't say I feel that way about Cowser.

 

Not intended to be an over-reaction.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

His D has been the most disappointing thing from my POV. I disnt expect a great defender but he was made out to be above avg and he hasnt been that

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Dude I may not agree with you on most things but that is 100% accurate IMO. Good post.

[Mike B]

I look forward to Cowser settling in, and getting hot.  I think it is coming and I think everything will improve including the defense.  

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Fingers crossed Mike. 

[Mackus]

His D has been the most disappointing thing from my POV. I disnt expect a great defender but he was made out to be above avg and he hasnt been that

 

Defense can take adjustments just like offense.  I recall MCKenna and even Mullins not looking great in CF out of the gate, and they're more talented defenders than Cowser.  I still expect Cowser to be CF eligible, but he's not likely to be an asset like Mullins.  I really like the idea of him, Hays, and Mullins across the grass, in whatever order best utilizes the arms in the corners.  That also supposes that Hays' big season is for real and he can be at least a mid-700s hitter the next few years and perhaps better.  I've actually got as much confidence in Cowser being 750+ in 2024-2025 as Hays, though confident enough in all three to run them out there for a while.

[makoman]

I've been a big Cowser apologist and dude's post is reasonable to me.

 

I'm not that concerned about the hitting. He has 1 hit in his 10 hardest hit balls, he's hitting .128 but his XBA is basically MLB average. No barrels but hard hit % is above average. He's hitting too many grounders. His chase rate is very good but he doesn't swing at balls in the zone either, 9% from average at both. Yes, hunt damage. His history shows he will adjust. Of course MLB is the greatest jump but I don't think what he's shown here would play in AAA either, so he has more in him.

 

I agree the defense is the most concerning. Doesn't look great so far. People say it's hard to adjust to MLB stadiums, I have no real opinion on that, but someone billed as an adequate CF should at least be capable on the corners. Slumps happen on defense too, we all remember the first series.

 

I am hoping that a lot of it is mental, and getting comfortable will improve things. If you are tentative and unsure you will look unathletic. You may wait for the ideal pitch to hit that won't ever come. The mental part of the game is huge. None of us really know if he has that, but that's why I say hoping. We'll have to see.

[Mackus]

Agree that dude's take on how Cowser looks over his first two week is fair.  Don't agree at all with all the others who are seeing the same thing and ready to demote him or trade him away.  That's panicking.

[dude]

I really like the idea of him, Hays, and Mullins across the grass, in whatever order best utilizes the arms in the corners.  

 

This has been my going in position for a year or so.  Love Ced in CF and would like him to be around more than 2 more years.  Always liked Hays better in RF where his arm is an advantage and his above average speed plays better in the limited dimensions of OPaCY.  Assumed Cowser would show CF-ish skills that patrol well in the expanded LF.

 

I'm not a Kjerstad to 1B/DH guy (I guess I can be talked into it, I hate just trying to fit everyone in)...but if you extended Mullins and Hays (I would), then you kind of float Hays to LF or RF depending if you like Cowser in LF better than Kjerstad in RF.

 

I feel like the answer is they'll let Hays and Ced walk (or trade next year) and the younger guys get the OF.

 

Would like to be more inspired by Cowser's general play.

[Mike B]

This has been my going in position for a year or so.  Love Ced in CF and would like him to be around more than 2 more years.  Always liked Hays better in RF where his arm is an advantage and his above average speed plays better in the limited dimensions of OPaCY.  Assumed Cowser would show CF-ish skills that patrol well in the expanded LF.

 

I'm not a Kjerstad to 1B/DH guy (I guess I can be talked into it, I hate just trying to fit everyone in)...but if you extended Mullins and Hays (I would), then you kind of float Hays to LF or RF depending if you like Cowser in LF better than Kjerstad in RF.

 

I feel like the answer is they'll let Hays and Ced walk (or trade next year) and the younger guys get the OF.

 

Would like to be more inspired by Cowser's general play.

I think it takes time for players to relax and react rather than thinking his way through plays.  I think we saw some of the same things with Gunnar.  I remember thinking and agreeing with others that Gunnar did not look like a SS and wanted him left at 3B.  Look at him play SS now.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Extending Hays seems particularly foolish

[Mackus]

I'd jump all over a Mullins extension but agree that I wouldn't pursue the same with Hays right now.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I don't think the MLB requires any  adjustment to your arm. Cowsers two throws yesterday were quite poor. If you can chalk that up to nerves ok. But you have an arm or you don't by the time you hit his age.

[makoman]

I don't think I've ever read anyone who does this for a living say his arm was a liability, so I'll take 2 years of scouting over 2 throws.

[mweb08]

I lean Santander over Hays if they keep one of them. Of course he's a free agent a year earlier and we don't know what it would take to extend him so this is more about who I prefer as a player. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Cowser will be a league average to All-Star caliber guy, excited about the many years of team control.

 

Hays has 2 years of control left... I'd consider adding on a year, but not a priority. 

 

Santander...  maybe I'd tack on a year if Mayo and Kjerstad are both traded.... but probably not.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I just don't understand why he isn't getting sent down. His at bats are woeful. He does see a good number of pitches but he can't hit the ball. Last night 0-3 with 3 Ks.

 

His OPS is an abysmal .422. Will he turn it around? Well we sure hope so but to me its pretty risky to keep sending him out there while we are in a playoff run. Can you bite the bullet hoping he gets it together for the actual playoffs? Game last night is a prime example. We were a couple of terrific defensive plays away from losing that game. I don't think the O's offense is good enough to afford sticking a guy out there who isn't even hitting his own weight.

 

Give me McKenna and his terrible .714 OPS and better defense until Mullis or Hicks is back.

[BobPhelan]

Because he’s the best option we have currently as well as being a top 50 prospect in baseball.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Because he’s the best option we have currently as well as being a top 50 prospect in baseball.

How is he a better option than McKenna?  If you want to say that he has a higher upside and could help more come the playoffs, I guess that's one viewpoint.

 

We had this discussion back several weeks ago. The general thought was hey its only 25 or 30 at bats. Which isn't wrong necessarily. But ok now its 44 at bats and I have not seen even an inkling of improvement. Sure he finally got an extra base hit. A bloop double that probably is an out against most decent LFers.

 

So do we give him 100 at bats? 150? At what point do you need to put better performing players out there and not someone waiting for them to get going?

[makoman]

How is he a better option than McKenna?  

It's an investment. Maybe McKenna is better today, but you let Cowser sort this out now in the hopes he is much better in Sept-Oct. I want the best team possible in Oct.

 

If you think something is happening mentally that will hinder him being better in two months, send him down. If you don't believe Cowser actually can be better in two months then yeah, send him down. If you think having him play now will prevent you from making the playoffs, send him down. People can differ, but of those I think only the first has possible merit, but only the team would know.