388 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Cowser hit his 3rd HR with Bowie today. In 39 ABs. Hit 4 with Aberdeen in 229 ABs. Good to see some pop and good to see the hot start in Bowie.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Thanks again for all these updates.

[glenn__davis]

Cowser is a college bat at lower levels whereas Nick was a HS guy who moved fast. And walks aren't the entirety of plate discipline. And Cowser has a much smaller sample. But he has walked much more than Nick did in the minors. Nearly 17% in 450 PA compared to 11% in 1200 PA.

 

Nick wasn't a HS guy, he played Juco.

[Mackus]

Nick wasn't a HS guy, he played Juco.

 

Thanks, you're right.  J2.  He was still only 19 when he was drafted.  Cowser was 21.

[BobPhelan]

Promoted to AAA Norfolk.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

What a performance at AA. Again, love making me look foolish for questioning his performance in A+

[makoman]

Cowser's come back pretty well after starting 3 for 38 with 22 Ks in his first 10 games at AAA. Since then:

 

14 G, 65 PAs, .298/.385/.596 .981, 156 wRC+, 5 2B, 4 HR, 9.2 BB%, 20.0 K%

 

Small sample obviously, but his start was really bad so good to see him adjust or whatever and get back to hitting again to end the year.

[glenn__davis]

Cowser's come back pretty well after starting 3 for 38 with 22 Ks in his first 10 games at AAA. Since then:

 

14 G, 65 PAs, .298/.385/.596 .981, 156 wRC+, 5 2B, 4 HR, 9.2 BB%, 20.0 K%

 

Small sample obviously, but his start was really bad so good to see him adjust or whatever and get back to hitting again to end the year.

 

Absolutely.  I suspect he starts next year in AAA and should be ready for a call-up prior to mid-year.  Of course he has nowhere to play at the moment.  Going to be a fascinating offseason, the 1st one I'm anticipating in about 15 years I think.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

He strikes out too much. Period. Thats not to say he doesnt do other things well and cant be a productive player but its concerning. To think the rate is magically going to drop in the Show seems unlikely.

[makoman]

He strikes out too much. Period. Thats not to say he doesnt do other things well and cant be a productive player but its concerning. To think the rate is magically going to drop in the Show seems unlikely.

He strikes out more than I thought he would with his supposed hit tool. I'm not saying I like it.

 

But Ohtani struck out 30% of the time last year. Judge was routinely 30%+ and now is "only" 25%.

 

He is not those guys, I know that and am not saying that. But there is no general "too much. Period" in the 25% area. The whole point is whether you are productive enough, which I acknowledge you did say. Sure if it's like 35-40% it's just too hard to be productive in the remaining PAs, but I'm not worried he's going there at this point. 

 

High K rate is concerning in the minors I agree, especially lower minors, cause you're seeing if guys can hit, and you worry that they won't be able to hit better stuff as they move up. But if you're still at high 20s but productive enough to have like 140 wRC+ in AAA, like Gunnar was (yes age helps), the concerns start going away. Because the production is what really matters, and the stuff is closer to MLB stuff so you don't expect a sudden drop to that 35% red flag level.

 

So Cowser's 25% in AA, mildly concerning IMO but 184 wRC+ way outweighs that concern. It remains to be seen how AAA goes, if he remains at 30% with 100ish wRC+, that's bad. And there are always AAAA players, so nothing is given. His profile is also weird because his chase rate is apparently like lowest 1% in the minors and in zone swing % also one of the lowest in the minors (as of August some time), that doesn't scream K machine so I wonder what really goes on in his ABs. Maybe he needs to swing more.

[Mackus]

High K rate is concerning in the minors I agree, especially lower minors, cause you're seeing if guys can hit, and you worry that they won't be able to hit better stuff as they move up. But if you're still at high 20s but productive enough to have like 140 wRC+ in AAA, like Gunnar was (yes age helps), the concerns start going away. Because the production is what really matters, and the stuff is closer to MLB stuff so you don't expect a sudden drop to that 35% red flag level.

 

I don't know the answer to this but I wonder how much less of a big red flag a high minor league K-rate is now than it would've been even just 10 years ago.  Strikeouts are up so dramatically in recent years at MLB.  In the past, even if you rightly didn't care how much a major leaguer struck out as long as they were still overall successful, you'd hate seeing a minor leaguer with a big K-rate because that would just go up even further as they climb and become unsustainable.  Its probably really hard to tell the difference between a minor leaguer with a high K-rate because he's trying for launch angle and exit velocity like MLB hitters do that should be able to maintain production as they climb and a minor leaguer with a high K-rate because they can't handle good breaking stuff and will lose even more production and K more as they climb.

[makoman]

I don't know the answer to this but I wonder how much less of a big red flag a high minor league K-rate is now than it would've been even just 10 years ago.  Strikeouts are up so dramatically in recent years at MLB.  In the past, even if you rightly didn't care how much a major leaguer struck out as long as they were still overall successful, you'd hate seeing a minor leaguer with a big K-rate because that would just go up even further as they climb and become unsustainable.  Its probably really hard to tell the difference between a minor leaguer with a high K-rate because he's trying for launch angle and exit velocity like MLB hitters do that should be able to maintain production as they climb and a minor leaguer with a high K-rate because they can't handle good breaking stuff and will lose even more production and K more as they climb.

Yeah, I'm sure the way different general approach affects things, no idea how much. If you really don't want to K and still do at a high rate, that's worrisome. If you don't really care it could be worrisome, but doesn't have to be. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I mean who is the comp from a hitting perspective.

[Mike B]

I am not worried about Cowser.  He has advanced 3 levels.and he has just 99 AB's at AAA.  It means nothing, good or bad.

[makoman]

I mean who is the comp from a hitting perspective.

I don't know, I'm not good at these things. I always thought he may be a Markakis type, and maybe if Nick was in the minors today he might have K'd a lot more. Also maybe the K rate goes down after getting the opportunity to make adjustments at a level, like if he spent a year at AA instead of just dominating and moving up. If he has the hit tool he's supposed to have (and he did hit 346 at AA) then it should be better. But yeah it's hard to find lots of K and lots of walks with not lots of power, though maybe this year he's shown more power than people thought?

 

So, this year Swanson? 26% K rate, not huge power. He's been worth over 5 WAR with good D at SS...good D at CF, if that's what he is, is less valuable but not terribly so. Adolis Garcia or Teoscar Hernandez with better AVG and OBP and a bit less SLG? I don't really know, someone else can do better at this exercise.

 

And I don't even want to bring these up... He's 15 months older than Gunnar and they were both at AA this year, and Cowser was arguably better except for K rate, both were great. He's a year younger at AA than Adley was in AA last year, and Cowser was far better, again except K rate. One year of prospect age is big, but that goes in both directions here. Those two when you watch them and their plate discipline and swing decisions, it just feels like something different than the rest of the team, even though they're rookies. The walk rate and chase rate suggests Cowser has some of that too. I don't know what to make of the K rate yet.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

As I said the K rate is concerning and IMO he strikes out too much.  Maybe he does slash it enough going forward but thats the hope. I dont expect him to be a plus defender in CF. I dont really like the profile right now. Again, not saying he is going to bust or cant be decent but I dont see much upside

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I fell like 20017-2018 Chris Taylor is like the best case scenario. Which Id happily take. Mike Yaz funny enough feels about right. Yaz had a lucky BABIP his first two years. UNlucky the last two years but the K rate and BB rate feel about right. Power feels about right. Hopefully a bit more defense from COwser. Again , nothing qrong with a 2.5-3.0 WAR player but I dont see much more upside than that

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The last thing I want to point out about Cowser's year is his extremely high BABIP in A+ and AA. .374 and .446. The defense is obviously going to e better the higher you go and those numbers are both extremely high even for A+ and AA. If teams value both he and Hall as Top 50 -Top 75 prospects they are the two guys Im looking to trade first to headline packages coming back to the Os

[BobPhelan]

He has become the most underrated player in the system.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

He has become the most underrated player in the system.

I got Bob to come out from his hiding place. Glad you are back. However, I think you meant to say overrated.