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#21 dude

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Posted 26 June 2021 - 03:44 PM

The other option is that Mike Elias is trying to preserve the prospect status of all the top 15 guys they can at this point.  Jones isn't likely the longer term solution so there really isn't any service (extra year or Super-2) consequence to whatever they do with him.  Vavra just got added to the top10 2B on mlb.com and you could see Jones forcing his way onto the list too, given his success this season.

 

If they bring him up in September, they keep his prospect status (Vavra, Jones, Diaz, Bradish, Baumann) so they add some depth behind the core guys for having the consensus #1 MiL system.

 

Elias has a limited window for having the #1 system.  After the top 3 guys (the guys he inherited) graduate, the system ranking takes a huge hit.  



#22 Mackus

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Posted 26 June 2021 - 04:10 PM

Would be wildly disappointing if that was the reason. Irresponsible and disqualifying, IMO.

#23 BaltBird 24

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Posted 26 June 2021 - 04:24 PM

Elias has a limited window for having the #1 system. After the top 3 guys (the guys he inherited) graduate, the system ranking takes a huge hit.


Elias drafted Rutschman. It's arguable that Henderson could overtake Hall for the #3 spot by seasons end. Where are you getting that Elias inherited the top 3 prospects?

#24 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 26 June 2021 - 05:36 PM

Elias has a limited window for having the #1 system.  After the top 3 guys (the guys he inherited) graduate, the system ranking takes a huge hit.  

 

If that is his goal, then all it should amount to is that his replacement will be walking into a promising situation.



#25 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 26 June 2021 - 05:49 PM

I see no reason to believe that is the case outside of wild pessimistic conjecture.
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#26 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 26 June 2021 - 05:54 PM

I see no reason to believe that is the case outside of wild pessimistic conjecture.

dude



#27 dude

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Posted 27 June 2021 - 01:06 PM

Elias drafted Rutschman. It's arguable that Henderson could overtake Hall for the #3 spot by seasons end. Where are you getting that Elias inherited the top 3 prospects?

 

The Orioles top 3 prospects are Rutschman, GRod and Hall.  He inherited the 1-1 pick, which is Rutschman.  If you were tapped to be the GM in November 2019, they would be your top 3 prospects too...regardless of your approach to winning at the ML level.

 

Since I stated a fact, what is your purpose to pushing back on a fact?



#28 Mackus

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Posted 27 June 2021 - 01:36 PM

Elias drafted Rutschman an gets that credit. Just because Rutschman became the clear #1 (which he wasn't the day Elias was hired) doesn't mean it wasn't Elias that drafted him. Same reason he gets credit for Henderson.
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#29 BaltBird 24

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Posted 27 June 2021 - 01:40 PM

The Orioles top 3 prospects are Rutschman, GRod and Hall. He inherited the 1-1 pick, which is Rutschman. If you were tapped to be the GM in November 2019, they would be your top 3 prospects too...regardless of your approach to winning at the ML level.

Since I stated a fact, what is your purpose to pushing back on a fact?


So he inherited the pick, but not the player. He could've picked any number of players with that pick.

He also inherited Bundy, Castro, Cobb, and everyone else he traded since he took over.... should he not get credit for any of those players?

#30 dude

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Posted 27 June 2021 - 03:21 PM

So he inherited the pick, but not the player. He could've picked any number of players with that pick.

 

So you want to try and treat what 100 out of 100 people would have done as some kind of accomplishment?  He certainly drafted him and you have to do a number of things from signing to development, but he was being called the best catching draft pick ever after like 10 minutes.  If he had done something other than the most obvious thing, you could make some type of assessment on his approach.  

 

He also inherited Bundy, Castro, Cobb, and everyone else he traded since he took over.... should he not get credit for any of those players?

 

Sure he does.  The approach you could take for the acquisition of all of those players has an extremely wide variance (compared to 1-1 above) so even for the less obvious things like the Gunner Henderson selection, lots of other passed and that was more of a choice ....but since you seem to think we've accomplished something....a couple of questions...

 

1) The Orioles likely have the #1 MiL system as soon as some of the promotions hit...if you took AR, GR and DLH out of the system (say, you promoted them all today and they fall off like Wander Franco will soon enough), where do you think the Orioles system would rank? 

 

2) Which player that has been acquired would you project as a core or critical piece of a future roster?

 

3) Which players that have been acquired were uniquely acquired as a function of 'rebuilding'.  For example, this thread is about Jones...did we have to not care about investing in the ML roster to acquire him?



#31 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 27 June 2021 - 06:17 PM

So now the rule is, if every so-called draft expert agrees you should have chosen Player X, then you as the GM get no credit for adding him to your organization when Player X ends up succeeding. Got it.


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#32 dude

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Posted 27 June 2021 - 08:09 PM

...or just answer the 3 questions above.



#33 mweb08

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Posted 27 June 2021 - 10:27 PM

I'm mostly with with dude on this one. He had no part in "earning" the #1 pick and then made a very obvious selection, so why would we give him a great deal of credit for it? There may be a reason, but I haven't seen one presented.

I can get behind giving him credit in the not screwing it up type of way, but that's about it.

#34 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 28 June 2021 - 07:27 AM

MASN: The waiting for Jahmai Jones is the hardest part
https://www.masnspor...rdest-part.html



#35 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 28 June 2021 - 08:03 AM

I'm mostly with with dude on this one. He had no part in "earning" the #1 pick and then made a very obvious selection, so why would we give him a great deal of credit for it? There may be a reason, but I haven't seen one presented.

I can get behind giving him credit in the not screwing it up type of way, but that's about it.


We’re talking about Rutschman like it’s the Jags taking Trevor Lawrence. I don’t think that’s a fair comp. Wouldn’t taking Witt Jr. have been as good, whereas if the Jags took anyone else it’s a giant head scratcher?

With the caveat that it’s dumb to judge a draft pick before they play a couple years of pro ball anyway.
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#36 Mike B

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Posted 28 June 2021 - 08:19 AM

I'm mostly with with dude on this one. He had no part in "earning" the #1 pick and then made a very obvious selection, so why would we give him a great deal of credit for it? There may be a reason, but I haven't seen one presented.

I can get behind giving him credit in the not screwing it up type of way, but that's about it.

Is earning the #1 pick something a front office exec wants credit for?


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#37 makoman

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Posted 28 June 2021 - 08:19 AM

We’re talking about Rutschman like it’s the Jags taking Trevor Lawrence. I don’t think that’s a fair comp. Wouldn’t taking Witt Jr. have been as good, whereas if the Jags took anyone else it’s a giant head scratcher?

With the caveat that it’s dumb to judge a draft pick before they play a couple years of pro ball anyway.

They could have picked Abrams and done some under slot shenanigans too, he signed for almost $3M less than Adley and is pretty much a consensus top 10 prospect. That's totally hindsight but a lot of people loved him at draft time so it may not have been the craziest thing in the world either. 

 

But I don't really get the need to declare whether and for what Elias gets credit right at this moment. His tenure will ultimately be judged on how the team comes out of the rebuild, and what players were "his" or here earlier will ultimately be just a footnote IMO.


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#38 mweb08

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Posted 28 June 2021 - 09:47 AM

Is earning the #1 pick something a front office exec wants credit for?


It seems like yes considering our current approach.

#39 Mackus

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Posted 28 June 2021 - 09:56 AM

Elias didn't have anything to do with getting the #1 pick (although I imagine having the #1 pick was an appealing part of him taking the job) but he had everything to do with making the selection.  And it wasn't a 100% scenario, there were intelligent people who wanted Witt.  Consensus was strongly in Rutschman's favor, but not unanimous.

 

Furthermore, drafting is only part of the equation.  Development is another part of it.  So not just Rutschman and the rest of the 2019 class, but anyone who had yet to graduate to the majors will have been at least partially under Elias and his staff's tutelage.  

 

This feels very similar to the conversation about MacPhail acquiring most of the past core but Duquette being necessary to augment it to deliver a winning team.  Credit can be split or shared.  But if you're talking about the people Elias has brought in since taking over, you have to mention Rutschman.  It's disingenuous not to do so, IMO.  Elias didn't create the opportunity to select Rutschman, but he is the guy who selected him.


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#40 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 28 June 2021 - 10:01 AM

Elias didn't have anything to do with getting the #1 pick (although I imagine having the #1 pick was an appealing part of him taking the job) but he had everything to do with making the selection. And it wasn't a 100% scenario, there were intelligent people who wanted Witt. Consensus was strongly in Rutschman's favor, but not unanimous.

Furthermore, drafting is only part of the equation. Development is another part of it. So not just Rutschman and the rest of the 2019 class, but anyone who had yet to graduate to the majors will have been at least partially under Elias and his staff's tutelage.

This feels very similar to the conversation about MacPhail acquiring most of the past core but Duquette being necessary to augment it to deliver a winning team. Credit can be split or shared.


Exactly.




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