436 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

But you don’t know that the other teams viewed him this way.

You are going by these guys who basically know nothing.

Callis is the only guy who ever seems to get close on these mocks.

On top of that, there is way more secrecy and strategy for the MLB draft vs other drafts. If you start getting it out there that he’s your guy, it could artificially raise his price.

Yes, I'm basing my opinions on the available information. It's inexact.

If they took the guy the Red Sox took, every word you just said would still be true.

[Slidemaster]

But you don’t know that the other teams viewed him this way.

You are going by these guys who basically know nothing.

Callis is the only guy who ever seems to get close on these mocks.

On top of that, there is way more secrecy and strategy for the MLB draft vs other drafts. If you start getting it out there that he’s your guy, it could artificially raise his price.

Basically what you're saying is that we all need to shut up and accept what we get, because we can't prove anyone with contrary opinions knows any better than the team.

[Mike B]

Basically what you're saying is that we all need to shut up and accept what we get, because we can't prove anyone with contrary opinions knows any better than the team.

Honestly, we do not know better than  the team.

 

How many of these kids have you seen?

 

And FWIW, I am not thrilled with the picks, but think some of the reaction is o0ver the top.

[Slidemaster]

Honestly, we do not know better than the team.

How many of these kids have you seen?

And FWIW, I am not thrilled with the picks, but think some of the reaction is o0ver the top.

I'm not saying that we know better than the team. My issue however is with the position that nobody outside of each team's front office knows anything that should be worth considering. Most analysts that specialize in draft coverage and scouting have a background in those fields. Why should we disregard their positions and evaluations? If there is a general consensus amongst all of these guys that a player is one thing, and one team thinks he's another, why should we just blindly trust the team's evaluation?

[SportsGuy]

Basically what you're saying is that we all need to shut up and accept what we get, because we can't prove anyone with contrary opinions knows any better than the team.

i mean sort of.

And btw, it’s hypocritical for me to say this, as I have been on the other side plenty of times..and have even done it with some of their other picks this year.

My only real point is that the information that the public has access to is way different than the teams have. This isn’t like the other drafts. The MLB draft is just different in so many ways.

I mean, for everyone thinking Martin is some slam dunk, he got past 2 other teams as well..including the Royals who I had read would jump at the chance to take him. No one knows.

Meyer was looked at by many as no better than the third pitcher in the draft..yet he was the first pitcher chosen and third overall pick and for me, as I read his profile and compared to the others, I would take him over the other guys too...but that could be seen as a reach by some as well.

[SportsGuy]

I'm not saying that we know better than the team. My issue however is with the position that nobody outside of each team's front office knows anything that should be worth considering. Most analysts that specialize in draft coverage and scouting have a background in those fields. Why should we disregard their positions and evaluations? If there is a general consensus amongst all of these guys that a player is one thing, and one team thinks he's another, why should we just blindly trust the team's evaluation?

But whose opinion do you like and whose don’t you like?

Saw ODowd say he would have gone Martin over Kjerstad but that he loved Kjerstad. He didn’t feel that was a reach. Does Mayo or Callis have a better opinion than someone who was a GM? Elias, Medjal, etc..evaluate differently. They are saying, we don’t care if he strikes out 140 times...if he can OPs 850+, hit 35+ homers and play a good RF, his Ks are meaningless.

Yet every report we saw knocked him down for that. Maybe people need to pay more attention to how the game is being played? K rates are way up. It just doesn’t matter to teams.

I’m not saying the “experts” don’t have opinions we should listen to. I’m just saying they don’t have all the info.

[hallas]

I'm not saying that we know better than the team. My issue however is with the position that nobody outside of each team's front office knows anything that should be worth considering. Most analysts that specialize in draft coverage and scouting have a background in those fields. Why should we disregard their positions and evaluations? If there is a general consensus amongst all of these guys that a player is one thing, and one team thinks he's another, why should we just blindly trust the team's evaluation?

 

I touched on this in another thread, but I don't really trust outside evaluators this year because I believe the circumstances relating to Rona made their jobs impossibly hard.  There just isn't enough data to go on.  I think there is a difference between accepting the team's evaluations and just punting the question until we can see them play.  At this point I'd rather punt and see how the players perform when they play pro ball.

[Slidemaster]

I touched on this in another thread, but I don't really trust outside evaluators this year because I believe the circumstances relating to Rona made their jobs impossibly hard. There just isn't enough data to go on. I think there is a difference between accepting the team's evaluations and just punting the question until we can see them play. At this point I'd rather punt and see how the players perform when they play pro ball.

Everyone is working from the same data though. Why would it be impossible for those outside an organization and not for those inside it?

[Mackus]

Everyone is working from the same data though. Why would it be impossible for those outside an organization and not for those inside it?

Every organization has proprietary information. O's were probably the last one on that train, but they're on it now. Outside publications don't have the same resources that MLB scouting departments do. Doesn't mean they are necessarily worse at scouting and ranking. Just that it's not a situation where everyone is working from the same information.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I'll beat on a dead horse here a bit. When it comes to college seniors these guys are 21/22 years old and in the vast majority of cases have been playing baseball most of their lives. There is loads of information available on them. I think the missing the rest of this season is way overblown when it comes to teams ability to assess players' MLB potential.

[Mackus]

Doesn't change your point, but very few of the real prospects are college seniors. They're mostly high schoolers and juniors.

I can't more strongly disagree on it being overblown to have not played a spring season in terms of finalizing the board. Especially at the top when you are splitting very fine hairs and the precision of your board really matters. Once you're down into the meat of the draft, precision is less important. Spring season is less important there, though of course you lose the possibility of guys breaking out and jumping up multiple rounds or struggling and falling backwards significantly. The tiers by that point are so deep that getting the order right isn't as vital, just identify the guys you like and try to land as many as possible.

It'll be interesting in ten years to look back and see if the 5 rounds this year were more or less productive than other years.

[JeremyStrain]

Doesn't change your point, but very few of the real prospects are college seniors. They're mostly high schoolers and juniors.

I can't more strongly disagree on it being overblown to have not played a spring season in terms of finalizing the board. Especially at the top when you are splitting very fine hairs and the precision of your board really matters. Once you're down into the meat of the draft, precision is less important. Spring season is less important there, though of course you lose the possibility of guys breaking out and jumping up multiple rounds or struggling and falling backwards significantly. The tiers by that point are so deep that getting the order right isn't as vital, just identify the guys you like and try to land as many as possible.

It'll be interesting in ten years to look back and see if the 5 rounds this year were more or less productive than other years.

Amen. There are SO many guys every year that jump significantly up draft boards because of that current season. Especially HS kids because they can be so night and day different year to year. A kid could be playing his first year out of JV at 16 and not even a starter, and then the next year as a senior be an all state player.

 

Same to a slightly lesser degree in college, but I'm sure there are some draft eligible guys that were behind other players the year before and were now going to be starters for the first season, especially at some of the more dominant schools who have deeper rosters. That Friday night starting pitcher gets drafted, and then coming into this season the guy that may have been your Sat or Sun guy gets thrown into the spotlight, maybe makes a huge jump? There's just so much that one year tells you when you are dealing with kids under 21, cause they can develop in spurts and really fast. Sometimes you've seen a flash of the talent but they haven't had the opportunity. Sometimes they might grow, or work out differently, or just learn through experience.

[SportsGuy]

https://pressboxonli...CWQvi0.facebook

[Mackus]

https://pressboxonli...CWQvi0.facebook

Does everybody else hear Ben's drawl when reading his quotes like I do?

[Chris B]

Kjerstad checked in at #99 on the new Baseball America Top 100 Prospects.

[Mackus]

Damn was hoping he had signed when I saw the bump.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Kjerstad checked in at #99 on the new Baseball America Top 100 Prospects.

Out of curosity, where was Tork and was Martin ranked?

[SportsGuy]

Looks like Martin is 16th.

All I know about Tork so far is that he is top 15 and ahead of Casey Mize, who is the Tigers other top ranked guy.

Asa Lacy is 39th.

[Chris B]

Out of curosity, where was Tork and was Martin ranked?

 

11. Torkelsen

16. Martin

[SportsGuy]

11. Torkelsen
16. Martin

Do they list a position for Martin?