460 replies to this topic

[Chris B]

Do they list a position for Martin?

SS

[SportsGuy]

SS

Interesting.

Wonder where they would have placed him if he was an OFer or second baseman?

[Mike B]

11. Torkelsen

16. Martin

Still have that feeling that we should have taken Martin, but by no means do I know what I am talking about.

[SportsGuy]

Still have that feeling that we should have taken Martin, but by no means do I know what I am talking about.

If he is 100% staying at SS, they should have taken him. I feel the same if he is a third baseman as well.

If they think he’s a second baseman or a corner OFer, I understand taking Kjerstad.

CF I’m not sure.

If Big Bens assessment is correct and he doesn’t have the arm for the left side of the IF, which also means his arm won’t play well in the OF, he may just be a second baseman.

[Mike B]

If he is 100% staying at SS, they should have taken him. I feel the same if he is a third baseman as well.

If they think he’s a second baseman or a corner OFer, I understand taking Kjerstad.

CF I’m not sure.

If Big Bens assessment is correct and he doesn’t have the arm for the left side of the IF, which also means his arm won’t play well in the OF, he may just be a second baseman.

All that makes sense.  I really wish MLB allowed trading of picks.  This one had trade down all over it.

[SportsGuy]

If ends up being a left side of the IF everyday player, then the Os will likely have made a big mistake.

He isn’t some defensive whiz that is going to SS just for his glove and if he can play third everyday, it’s also because his bat is justifying it.

So, if he stays on the left side, it’s because the defense is strong enough and the bat is good enough.

That combo on the left side is likely going to be more valuable than a power hitting RFer is.

[JeremyStrain]

If ends up being a left side of the IF everyday player, then the Os will likely have made a big mistake.

He isn’t some defensive whiz that is going to SS just for his glove and if he can play third everyday, it’s also because his bat is justifying it.

So, if he stays on the left side, it’s because the defense is strong enough and the bat is good enough.

That combo on the left side is likely going to be more valuable than a power hitting RFer is.

If Kjerstad ends up closer to Jay Buhner or Jeromy Burnitz do you feel good about it? I'd say Nelson Cruz, but I think that's still a sore spot for all of us.

[SportsGuy]

If Kjerstad ends up closer to Jay Buhner or Jeromy Burnitz do you feel good about it? I'd say Nelson Cruz, but I think that's still a sore spot for all of us.

1) I’m not sore about Cruz.

2) And no, that wouldn’t justify the pick imo...although at least he would be productive for some amount of time.

[Mike B]

If Kjerstad ends up closer to Jay Buhner or Jeromy Burnitz do you feel good about it? I'd say Nelson Cruz, but I think that's still a sore spot for all of us.

If he turns out to be Cruz, I really do not care what Martin does.

 

I also would be happy if he turned out to be Buhner or Burnitz.  Especially Buhner/

[SportsGuy]

7 of the top 10 picks were ahead of Kjerstad in the BA top 100.

The closest was Veen..at 75.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

7 of the top 10 picks were ahead of Kjerstad in the BA top 100.

The closest was Veen..at 75.

So the O's scouts see something in him that the rest of baseball doesn't?

[Mike B]

7 of the top 10 picks were ahead of Kjerstad in the BA top 100.

The closest was Veen..at 75.

I could not care less about rankings, but this will be the first true test of Elias and his decision making ability.  If Kjerstad fails and if they made the pick largely because of things like launch angle, exit velocity, and all the other analytic stuff, they preach, then the bloom will come off the numbers brigade real fast.

[SportsGuy]

So the O's scouts see something in him that the rest of baseball doesn't?

Maybe..these are also rankings based on hype.

[JeremyStrain]

If he turns out to be Cruz, I really do not care what Martin does.

 

I also would be happy if he turned out to be Buhner or Burnitz.  Especially Buhner/

Yeah that's where I was going. It doesn't always have to be relative to other players. If he turns out to be a productive player for us, it's better than a bust and it's a win. If things break right for him, those are the kinds of players he could turn out like though, big power, strong arm, total RF type.

 

I guess at this stage it's probably better to compare him to a guy most of us will remember well, Wladamir Balentin. Cause he's about at that level of play when we were in trade talks. Big power, strong arm, questions about how the hit tool will end up. He could end up never really panning out like Wlad, or he could end up a Burnitz/Buhner type...although I'm not positive what kind of power he ends up with, I think Mack and I talked about it earlier in the thread, whether he ends up a 30 HR guy, or a 40 HR guy.

 

Even if Martin does well for himself, if your guy hits, it's no where near as big of a miss. It's when you bust and then another guy hits well that it really stings (Like Rowell over Lincecum, or Hobgood over...well everyone)

[JeremyStrain]

Maybe..these are also rankings based on hype.

This is a big part of it.

 

It's like a class popularity vote almost.

[Mike B]

Maybe..these are also rankings based on hype.

I think it is certainly part of it.  I also wonder how qualified the people who are doing the rankings are?

[Mike B]

This is a big part of it.

 

It's like a class popularity vote almost.

I am pretty sure they read what each others are saying and that probably goes into their personal rankings.  

 

I study the players for fantasy baseball every year using stats, what I see and what is on line and do my own crude rankings.  At the end of the year, I take a look and laugh at some of the position rankings,   

Rankings are certainly not an exact science.

[Mackus]

I think it is certainly part of it.  I also wonder how qualified the people who are doing the rankings are?

 

Its Baseball America.  They're as qualified as just about anyone.

 

The ranking of first year players (i.e. recent draftees) is very highly correlated to pre-draft ranking.  Earlier in this thread I posted what recent #2 and #10 overall guys were rated prior to the following seasons.  Those guys had the rest of their draft year to perform and either play well or struggle.  This year's draftees won't play.  But #2 overall guys tended to be in the 20s and #10 overall guys were in the last quarter.  

[Mike B]

Its Baseball America.  They're as qualified as just about anyone.

 

The ranking of first year players (i.e. recent draftees) is very highly correlated to pre-draft ranking.  Earlier in this thread I posted what recent #2 and #10 overall guys were rated prior to the following seasons.  Those guys had the rest of their draft year to perform and either play well or struggle.  This year's draftees won't play.  But #2 overall guys tended to be in the 20s and #10 overall guys were in the last quarter.  

Yea, I get that, but these rankings seem to be shot full of holes every year.  Again, I wished we had taken Martin, but I see no reason to get concerned because of BA's player rankings.

[JeremyStrain]

Yea, I get that, but these rankings seem to be shot full of holes every year.  Again, I wished we had taken Martin, but I see no reason to get concerned because of BA's player rankings.

Yeah I mean, to Mack and Rob's point, there seems to be a near systematic ranking these picks get based on where their pre-draft rankings were. Which is all subjective. They will all start moving around based on performance, and the ones that have the loudest seasons often start flying up these rankings.

 

These things are a good guide of who to keep an eye on, but people need to stop putting so much stock into the number rankings themselves.